The ability to sanction and control outcomes

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bradly1101

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May 5, 2013
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We have newly created sanctions against Russia in response to their incursions into Ukraine. We're only able to do this because our reach is so great (in trade, banking, energy, etc.).

We're using this tactic with Iran and have in the past with Russia, which helped break their bank leading to the Soviet breakup. We helped change history. But was The Bear merely stung?

We unleash these sanctions until a country "comes around to our (democratic) ways". One such country was Ukraine. But (as in Russia and Palestine) the person or group who got elected (fairly or not) may not be on our side. In this situation we attempt to change an outcome, sway voters and facilitate an overthrow. We've been doing this for decades with results that make me wonder why we still try.

In Victoria Newland's infamous phone call (in which she said FU to the EU for not supporting the overthrow of the Moscow-friendly, elected government) we were trying to bring down the results of a process we brought and are intensely supporting around the world. That phone call was obviously intercepted and publicized by Russia. The already-stung Bear is now really angry that we're meddling in their backyard, and is attempting to reveal our double-speak.

Why didn't those with this knowledge before-hand predict Russia's move in the game? We left our flank open with that phone call.

Are more countries reacting to our extensive reach and ability to sanction, and want to check our power, and if so how?
 

yllus

Elite Member & Lifer
Aug 20, 2000
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Nobody angered Russia as a result of them being surprised that we're meddling in a country that borders them. The Russians are to this day top-notch at gathering intelligence; they undoubtably knew from day one that external meddling was occurring. The West was also under no illusions that they knew what we were up to.

This is all standard stuff as far as international relations go. The West will and should continue pulling the policy levers it has; everyone knows we'll do everything up to actual military action to make things go our way. Russia's strength is that they'll engage in actual military action but have not much else to put into play.

Ultimately everything depends on the risk calculus in Putin's head and if "getting" Ukraine is worth the short and long term pain of that action.
 

theeedude

Lifer
Feb 5, 2006
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Nobody angered Russia as a result of them being surprised that we're meddling in a country that borders them. The Russians are to this day top-notch at gathering intelligence; they undoubtably knew from day one that external meddling was occurring. The West was also under no illusions that they knew what we were up to.

This is all standard stuff as far as international relations go. The West will and should continue pulling the policy levers it has; everyone knows we'll do everything up to actual military action to make things go our way. Russia's strength is that they'll engage in actual military action but have not much else to put into play.

Ultimately everything depends on the risk calculus in Putin's head and if "getting" Ukraine is worth the short and long term pain of that action.

It's not about "getting" Ukraine, it's about denying it to NATO. Putin will seemingly do whatever it takes to accomplish that. The only question is what will it take. If he reaches an agreement with NATO to stay out of Ukraine, he'll go with that. If he doesn't, he will work to destabilize Ukraine, and see if that's enough to make it too hot of a potato for NATO to touch. That seems to be the stage we are in now. Putin already raised the stakes to military action, for NATO to accept Ukraine now would mean to either start a hot war with Russia, which it's reluctant to do over Ukraine, or accept a Russian occupation of a NATO state's territory, which would make a mockery of the whole NATO treaty. A chain is only as strong as the weakest link.
 

Genx87

Lifer
Apr 8, 2002
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It's not about "getting" Ukraine, it's about denying it to NATO. Putin will seemingly do whatever it takes to accomplish that. The only question is what will it take. If he reaches an agreement with NATO to stay out of Ukraine, he'll go with that. If he doesn't, he will work to destabilize Ukraine, and see if that's enough to make it too hot of a potato for NATO to touch. That seems to be the stage we are in now. Putin already raised the stakes to military action, for NATO to accept Ukraine now would mean to either start a hot war with Russia, which it's reluctant to do over Ukraine, or accept a Russian occupation of a NATO state's territory, which would make a mockery of the whole NATO treaty. A chain is only as strong as the weakest link.

After Russia proving to Ukraine joining NATO is in their best interest. Their option to stop Ukraine from joining NATO is to roll up to the Polish border.
 

theeedude

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Feb 5, 2006
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After Russia proving to Ukraine joining NATO is in their best interest. Their option to stop Ukraine from joining NATO is to roll up to the Polish border.

Ukraine is controlled from Kiev, not Lviv. But I don't think he even has to go that far. NATO will not accept a state in open war with Russia, unless it wants to become a party to that war. Putin already raised the stakes to military action. If NATO wants Ukraine, it will have to call.
 

werepossum

Elite Member
Jul 10, 2006
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Ukraine is controlled from Kiev, not Lviv. But I don't think he even has to go that far. NATO will not accept a state in open war with Russia, unless it wants to become a party to that war. Putin already raised the stakes to military action. If NATO wants Ukraine, it will have to call.
Maybe. But real life is different than poker in that the cards already in play can change. Right now Putin is holding aces and eights and Obama is holding five Candyland cards, but Putin has to be noticing that the faces of his cards are getting fainter - to belabor a metaphor. ;)
 

bradly1101

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May 5, 2013
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Since I'm an old fart I remember learning about Russian aggression way back when. I also learned about American aggression, and with a few notable exceptions we're usually covert about it (like Ms. Newland's call - oops).

We don't want to invade land, but we want countries to choose (or be forced) to be aligned with us. It seems like another version of Imperialism up against theirs.

Until the big powers stop looking only to their own ambitions and let transitions run their course, I think we risk escalation like this. It's their future. I believe we need to drop the game, maybe stop the cycle of reaction. At most it's produced mixed results.
 
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