Texas Ebola patient dies

[Victorian Gray]

Good grief people.

 

[RandallFlagg]

He has been confirmed to have the Virus.

He has had a a lot of contact with people including taking cab rides all over the city.

Lovely.

Its not going to take long for reality to sink in on all the pundits who love to regurgitate the official line on how dangerous this disease is.

I'm going to refer back to my previous post about, if you want to know the non-pollitical answer on contagiousness look for data before it was political. In this case, search for articles prior to 2014.

This is what was being said in 2006 :


http://www.humanillnesses.com/Infectious-Diseases-Co-Ha/Ebola-Virus-Infection.html


Is Ebola Contagious?

Ebola virus is extremely contagious * , but scientists do not know exactly how it spreads. They do know that it can spread through direct contact with infected blood, especially on contaminated needles, and possibly through the nasal or respiratory secretions of someone who is infected.

 

[RandallFlagg]

Good grief people.

lemming :

A member of a crowd with no originality or voice of his own. One who speaks or repeats only what he has been told. A tool. A cretin.
"Ya think he'll do it?"
"He's a lemming, he'll do anything he's told."

http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=lemming&defid=38600

 

[Paratus]

Pay close attention folks.

New York City is one of our most densely populated areas. This doctor, if stricken with Ebola, likely exposed thousands of people to it before the onset of symptoms.

If there is an outbreak in New York City, it is highly unlikely that any local level of quarantine is going to stop it.

As an afternote - their comment about it only being contractable while a patient is 'symptomatic' is bullshit. The virus is replicating well before outward signs present. You're simply far more likely to come in contact with it after the patient begins to cough / sneeze / vomit.

From the OT Ebola thread:

I'm calling it:

No secondary transmissions
Dr survives.

Guess we'll see who's closer to reality.

 

[DrPizza]

Pay close attention folks.

New York City is one of our most densely populated areas. This doctor, if stricken with Ebola, likely exposed thousands of people to it before the onset of symptoms.

If there is an outbreak in New York City, it is highly unlikely that any local level of quarantine is going to stop it.

As an afternote - their comment about it only being contractable while a patient is 'symptomatic' is bullshit. The virus is replicating well before outward signs present. You're simply far more likely to come in contact with it after the patient begins to cough / sneeze / vomit.

unlikely that he affected anyone.

 

[RandallFlagg]

From the OT Ebola thread:

I'm calling it:

No secondary transmissions
Dr survives.

Guess we'll see who's closer to reality.

You will probably be right, this time.

Next time too.

All that's needed is one person to self treat Ebola with energy drinks and Tylenol for a few days so they can go to work in a McDonalds, then get lazy about wearing / changing their gloves because theyre having a bad day, and we're all fucked.

 

[Paratus]

You will probably be right, this time.

Next time too.

All that's needed is one person to self treat Ebola with energy drinks and Tylenol for a few days so they can go to work in a McDonalds, then get lazy about wearing / changing their gloves because theyre having a bad day, and we're all fucked.

I could be wrong. His fiancée may catch it. He may die from it. But the odds of this spreading uncontrolled are infinitesimal.

Dallas served as a warning to the rest of the country and other hospitals will be more diligent.

To reduce the the unlikely risk you are concerned about the world needs to help get the actual infection in Africa under control. Anything else is a stop-gap that can in some cases, like 99% travel bans, can be worse than the actual impacts of ebola.

 

[shira]

These health-care worker cases are being identified right at the start of symptoms, so re-hydration therapy is occurring before any damage from dehydration can occur. This keeps the person's immune system strong, greatly increasing the chances of survival. So it seems pretty likely that this physician - Craig Spencer - will also recover.

It's also unlikely that Spencer had sufficient viral load in his body to infect others before he was taken to Bellevue. Thomas Duncan ("patient zero") was MUCH sicker when he was finally hospitalized, yet none of his close contacts - even his fiance - were infected.

 

[Jaskalas]

**ebola strikes new york**

I feel it's wrong to say that when a person contracts it from Africa. Even if the nurses / doctors treating him become sick with it. I'd reserve "strikes (city)" for it being "in the wild", spreading to people who aren't on the front lines. "Innocent" people who have no business contracting it.

 

[Pulsar]

From the OT Ebola thread:

I'm calling it:

No secondary transmissions
Dr survives.

Guess we'll see who's closer to reality.

I'm not sure why you're saying we'll see who's closer to reality. It's highly likely he didn't transmit it, and I share your optimism on the results.

That, however, does not change any of the reality of what I said. One of our densist population centers has a case of ebola in the middle of it, and that may be all it takes to get started.

 

[OverVolt]

lemming :

A member of a crowd with no originality or voice of his own. One who speaks or repeats only what he has been told. A tool. A cretin.
"Ya think he'll do it?"
"He's a lemming, he'll do anything he's told."

http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=lemming&defid=38600

Yes and it was from a Disney video about lemmings jumping off a cliff because the first lemming jumped and they all followed the first one. Except the lemmings were pushed :O

Lemming is basically its own word now unrelated at all to the way lemmings actually behave.

http://www.snopes.com/disney/films/lemmings.asp

Its like.... how to spot a moron that just repeats what they read on the internet as true because they read it on the internet... if they use the word lemming to make a point.

Watch the video

From YOUR link

Overcome by compulsion, readers follow like lemmings diving off a cliff.

Originally coined in the alt.fashion newsgroup in the late 90s, the term has permeated numerous beauty boards/forums/sites.

 

[fskimospy]

I'm pretty excited. In the unlikely event that he actually transmitted it to the general public it would likely be to people who go to The Gutter. The only thing better would have been if he had spent the night trying on fedoras at that hipster hat spot on Bedford Ave.

 

[Paratus]

I'm pretty excited. In the unlikely event that he actually transmitted it to the general public it would likely be to people who go to The Gutter. The only thing better would have been if he had spent the night trying on fedoras at that hipster hat spot on Bedford Ave.

Are you wishing ebola on hipsters?


Well I'll have you know I was afraid of ebola before the Hot Zone, but you probably wouldn't get it....... :sneaky:

 

[fskimospy]

Are you wishing ebola on hipsters?


Well I'll have you know I was afraid of ebola before the Hot Zone, but you probably wouldn't get it....... :sneaky:

Of course not! I'm just saying that if we are stuck with an outbreak in NYC I can think of worse places. I would probably trade that out for Staten Island, but in that case would anyone notice?

 

[Newell Steamer]

NYC will be just fine.

Unless people on the A train do this;

,.. and ebola may be the least of what they catch,...

 

[RandallFlagg]

I'm not sure why you're saying we'll see who's closer to reality. It's highly likely he didn't transmit it, and I share your optimism on the results.

That, however, does not change any of the reality of what I said. One of our densist population centers has a case of ebola in the middle of it, and that may be all it takes to get started.

Exactly. Yes the odds are, this won't be the case that starts a North American epidemic of Ebola.

But this is like, you've got a 20 shot revolver pointed at your head. Every time a new Ebola case shows up, a random chamber is loaded and the trigger is pulled. Each time, the odds are 95% that nothing will happen. That does not change the fact that if you keep pulling the trigger, eventually you'll blow your brains out. That's pretty much the way I see these Ebola cases that show up in people who have been walking around in public in the US.

What will be really concerning is when it shows up in someone who hasn't been to Africa and isn't a healthcare worker. A motel cleaning maid, a fast food worker, a janitor, a sanitation worker. If that happens, Ebola will have truly arrived in the US.

 

[fskimospy]

Exactly. Yes the odds are, this won't be the case that starts a North American epidemic of Ebola.

But this is like, you've got a 20 shot revolver pointed at your head. Every time a new Ebola case shows up, a random chamber is loaded and the trigger is pulled. Each time, the odds are 95% that nothing will happen. That does not change the fact that if you keep pulling the trigger, eventually you'll blow your brains out. That's pretty much the way I see these Ebola cases that show up in people who have been walking around in public in the US.

What will be really concerning is when it shows up in someone who hasn't been to Africa and isn't a healthcare worker. A motel cleaning maid, a fast food worker, a janitor, a sanitation worker. If that happens, Ebola will have truly arrived in the US.

Not really. None of those things are likely to set off some sort of nationwide epidemic in the US. It's just not a terribly easily transmitted disease.

 

[echo4747]

If you contract ebola and beat the virus... can you get it again? Or is it like chicken pox... once you get it you dont get it again?

 

[DrPizza]

Exactly. Yes the odds are, this won't be the case that starts a North American epidemic of Ebola.

But this is like, you've got a 20 shot revolver pointed at your head. Every time a new Ebola case shows up, a random chamber is loaded and the trigger is pulled. Each time, the odds are 95% that nothing will happen. That does not change the fact that if you keep pulling the trigger, eventually you'll blow your brains out. That's pretty much the way I see these Ebola cases that show up in people who have been walking around in public in the US.

What will be really concerning is when it shows up in someone who hasn't been to Africa and isn't a healthcare worker. A motel cleaning maid, a fast food worker, a janitor, a sanitation worker. If that happens, Ebola will have truly arrived in the US.

You seem rather paranoid. Ebola is not and will not ever be an epidemic in the US as a direct result of our better sanitation, education, health care practices, etc. It's much more difficult to spread than the media has left a lot of people believing. And, with the new requirements for required personal protection procedures, you are very unlikely to see any more nurses contracting it from patients.

 

[Strk]

If you contract ebola and beat the virus... can you get it again? Or is it like chicken pox... once you get it you dont get it again?

They aren't exactly sure. There was a study from an outbreak in Uganda not too long ago that said there is some immunity for around 12 years, I believe. However, there could be differences among strains.

Oh, and technically, the chicken pox virus never leaves you. It is why you can get shingles.

 

[abj13]

If you contract ebola and beat the virus... can you get it again? Or is it like chicken pox... once you get it you dont get it again?

It isn't entirely clear if one can be reinfected, but the data is limited. In a small primate study of those who received ZMapp, some did survive reinfection of ebola, but some did not, and it appears the non-survivors lacked a significant immune response to their initial infection. As to why, it us unclear, was it due to the ZMapp clearing the majority of the infection and that's why they didn't mount a response? In human survivors, there appears be a robust immune response in survivors, but this wanes over a 10 year period. It is unclear if those survivors would be resistant to reinfection, but at least based on their immune responses, they would mount a significant response at the timing of infection... which theoretically would be better than someone who is naive to the virus.

 

[echo4747]

It isn't entirely clear if one can be reinfected, but the data is limited. In a small primate study of those who received ZMapp, some did survive reinfection of ebola, but some did not, and it appears the non-survivors lacked a significant immune response to their initial infection. As to why, it us unclear, was it due to the ZMapp clearing the majority of the infection and that's why they didn't mount a response? In human survivors, there appears be a robust immune response in survivors, but this wanes over a 10 year period. It is unclear if those survivors would be resistant to reinfection, but at least based on their immune responses, they would mount a significant response at the timing of infection... which theoretically would be better than someone who is naive to the virus.

Thanks for the info.. Another thing I dont understand is why the "experts" say those infected with ebola are not contagious until they have fever,coughing,vomiting etc. I would think the once the virus is in your system it should be in your bodily fluids. I could see recently infected person much less likely to transmit it to others because the have not start coughing.
-Suppose I got infected,... several days go by, and the day before I notice a fever, I go to a gym workout on an elipitical machine and leave perspiration on the handles of the machine less than a min after I leave the machine the next person hops on and grabs the handles while exercising the wipe there eyes or pick their nose, I would think its reasonable to think they too could be now infected.

 

[fskimospy]

Thanks for the info.. Another thing I dont understand is why the "experts" say those infected with ebola are not contagious until they have fever,coughing,vomiting etc. I would think the once the virus is in your system it should be in your bodily fluids. I could see recently infected person much less likely to transmit it to others because the have not start coughing.
-Suppose I got infected,... several days go by, and the day before I notice a fever, I go to a gym workout on an elipitical machine and leave perspiration on the handles of the machine less than a min after I leave the machine the next person hops on and grabs the handles while exercising the wipe there eyes or pick their nose, I would think its reasonable to think they too could be now infected.

A few things:

1. Ebola does not attack the respiratory system. It doesn't make you cough.

2. It is not so simple as "once it's in your system it's in your bodily fluids". It has to replicate enough times to reach the level where it does that. There's no evidence that the virus is present in sufficient quantities to infect someone else before people display symptoms.

 

[abj13]

Thanks for the info.. Another thing I dont understand is why the "experts" say those infected with ebola are not contagious until they have fever,coughing,vomiting etc. I would think the once the virus is in your system it should be in your bodily fluids. I could see recently infected person much less likely to transmit it to others because the have not start coughing.
-Suppose I got infected,... several days go by, and the day before I notice a fever, I go to a gym workout on an elipitical machine and leave perspiration on the handles of the machine less than a min after I leave the machine the next person hops on and grabs the handles while exercising the wipe there eyes or pick their nose, I would think its reasonable to think they too could be now infected.

The "experts" are more than likely "right." It really is a complex problem. First you have to get a sufficient "dose" of ebola into bodily fluids in order for high frequency transmission. It appears this threshold is once the patient is symptomatic, given Ebola's sites of infection, patients become symptomatic once their viral load is sufficiently high. Ebola targets endothelial cells, a location that is easily accessible to the immune system, and would trigger an immune response, particularly a fever. This differs from other viruses, as influenza is the common example. Patients can have active replication of the virus restricted to only their nasopharynx, are asymptomatic, but can actively transmit the virus. It is well known that many people can carry for extended periods of time respiratory viruses in their respiratory tract, without being symptomatic.

Our immune systems, particularly the innate can control low-scale infections without mounting a large immune response, thus the host remains asymptomatic. On a daily basis our body is clearing bacteria from the blood, cancer cells, and minute viral infections, including things like Herpes-Zoster reactivations. Our immune system isn't dumb, but it has to be innoculated with a sufficiently large infectious dose so that the viral replication outstrips the initial innate immune response.

Second, Ebola has to be transmitted via bodily fluids, and why Ebola is problematic is that it actively promotes large scale vomiting and diarrhea, to the point of mimicking Cholera. This obviously doesn't happen until patients are symptomatic.

So in the end, yes patients who are asymptomatic have virus present, but they may not have sufficient viral loads to transmit, nor do they have a profound bodily fluid coming out of them that would be contagious to others.

 

[shira]

If you contract ebola and beat the virus... can you get it again? Or is it like chicken pox... once you get it you dont get it again?

The same strain? Very unlikely. But there are at least three other deadly strains of Ebola, and - just like with influenza - immunity against one strain won't confer immunity against other strains.

Also, Ebola is mutating rapidly, so even the current strain (Ebola Zaire) may be very different six months from now. So different that it's considered a new strain which could cause disease in those who recovered from the original strain.