Texas a swing state?

[Wreckem]

McCain vs Obama, neck and neck in TX.

So? Who exactly can win big states in the general?

Yeah, this just underscores the stupidity of the whole argument that Obama can't win big states vs Clinton hes doomed in the general.

Furthermore the same polling shows Obama winning VA, a state Clinton cannot win.

Clinton as of right now would lose Michigan, Washington, Oregon, Colorado. Obama would lose PA, and Florida.

State by State polling

Furthermore, this is right now. John McCain is nipping at both their boots. There is no way either Clinton or Obama can win this if they fight it out till their convention.

 

[alphatarget1]

Neither Obama nor Clinton would win TX in this election, IMO.

<I live in TX.

 

[Wreckem]

Originally posted by: alphatarget1
Neither Obama nor Clinton would win TX in this election, IMO.

<I live in TX.

I do too. However, you have the latino vote, the black vote, the liberal vote, and the suburban moderates that would vote for Obama. Its not likely he could win, but right now polling shows hes right there with McCain.

 

[M0RPH]

That poll is full of crap. It shows both Obama and Clinton beating McCain in Ohio by 10 points. The reality is it's going to be much closer there (although Clinton has the better chance).

It's right about one thing though, when it shows that Clinton would win Florida and Obama wouldn't. Another big reason democrats should want Clinton as their candidate.

 

[Farang]

Originally posted by: M0RPH
That poll is full of crap. It shows both Obama and Clinton beating McCain in Ohio by 10 points. The reality is it's going to be difficult for the democrat to win there (although Clinton has the better chance).

It's right about one thing though, when it shows that Clinton would win Florida and Obama wouldn't. Another big reason democrats should want Clinton as their candidate.

If you take away Ohio, because obviously that is what we should do (listen to you rather than scientific surveys), then they both lose but Obama by a smaller margin. Clinton loses Oregon and Washington.. OREGON AND WASHINGTON!!! Obama's only down 2 points in Florida.

You have made the worst possible interpretation of this survey.

 

[Wreckem]

Originally posted by: M0RPH
That poll is full of crap. It shows both Obama and Clinton beating McCain in Ohio by 10 points. The reality is it's going to be difficult for the democrat to win there (although Clinton has the better chance).

It's right about one thing though, when it shows that Clinton would win Florida and Obama wouldn't. Another big reason democrats should want Clinton as their candidate.

You continue to be delusional. Or you're racist like the Democrats in West VA.

I dont know what is worse, the battle between the evangelicals and fiscals in the GOP, or the battle between the social conservative dems and liberals in the Democratic Party.

 

[Dari]

Originally posted by: Wreckem

Originally posted by: M0RPH
That poll is full of crap. It shows both Obama and Clinton beating McCain in Ohio by 10 points. The reality is it's going to be difficult for the democrat to win there (although Clinton has the better chance).

It's right about one thing though, when it shows that Clinton would win Florida and Obama wouldn't. Another big reason democrats should want Clinton as their candidate.

You continue to be delusional. Or you're racist like the Democrats in West VA.

I dont know what is worse, the battle between the evangelicals and fiscals in the GOP, or the battle between the social conservative dems and liberals in the Democratic Party.

Rockefeller endorsed Obama last week. But I'm not sure what that will do.

 

[M0RPH]

Actually the poll isn't that far off now that I look at it closer, except Obama loses Ohio and Michigan and wins New Jersey. Yes, he losese the election.

The only issue I have with their Clinton data is that she would win Michigan. So she wins the election.


Yep, make those changes and it's about right.

IMHO

 

[Wreckem]

Originally posted by: Dari

Originally posted by: Wreckem

Originally posted by: M0RPH
That poll is full of crap. It shows both Obama and Clinton beating McCain in Ohio by 10 points. The reality is it's going to be difficult for the democrat to win there (although Clinton has the better chance).

It's right about one thing though, when it shows that Clinton would win Florida and Obama wouldn't. Another big reason democrats should want Clinton as their candidate.

You continue to be delusional. Or you're racist like the Democrats in West VA.

I dont know what is worse, the battle between the evangelicals and fiscals in the GOP, or the battle between the social conservative dems and liberals in the Democratic Party.

Rockefeller endorsed Obama last week. But I'm not sure what that will do.

Well the Dems(not elected ones) in West VA, are the social conservative breed of Dems. Also known as the Reagen Democrats. This poll shows that a good deal of them are racist. Which is quite true. I mean Clinton beats McCain handily. While McCain beats Obama handily.

 

[Wreckem]

Originally posted by: M0RPH
Actually the poll isn't that far off now that I look at it closer, except Obama loses Ohio and Michigan and wins New Jersey. Yes, he losese the election.

The only issue I have with their Clinton data is that she would win Michigan. So she wins the election.


Yep, make those changes and it's about right.

Thats all your opinion. Wasnt it you that told me to start saying in my opinion. Right now I'd take a fairly scientific survey over your opinion.

Neither one of them will beat McCain in the fall if it goes until the DNC which it is going to.

 

[nageov3t]

if everything else you've posted has been wrong before, this bodes remarkably well for McCain

 

[Robor]

Originally posted by: M0RPH
That poll is full of crap. It shows both Obama and Clinton beating McCain in Ohio by 10 points. The reality is it's going to be much closer there (although Clinton has the better chance).

It's right about one thing though, when it shows that Clinton would win Florida and Obama wouldn't. Another big reason democrats should want Clinton as their candidate.

A big reason democrats should NOT want Clinton as their candidate

 

[M0RPH]

Originally posted by: Robor

A big reason democrats should NOT want Clinton as their candidate

Unfortunately popular vote (which is what those polls represent) don't mean a lot when it comes to the electoral college.

 

[nageov3t]

Originally posted by: Robor

Originally posted by: M0RPH
That poll is full of crap. It shows both Obama and Clinton beating McCain in Ohio by 10 points. The reality is it's going to be much closer there (although Clinton has the better chance).

It's right about one thing though, when it shows that Clinton would win Florida and Obama wouldn't. Another big reason democrats should want Clinton as their candidate.

A big reason democrats should NOT want Clinton as their candidate

the post-TX/OH polls show things differently.

which is to say, all national general election polls are almost completely useless at this point.

 

[Robor]

My point is a poll is a poll is a poll. This stuff seems to shift day to day. What hasn't changed is Obama has a big elected delegate lead that's unlikely to be overcome.

 

[Wreckem]

Originally posted by: loki8481
if everything else you've posted has been wrong before, this bodes remarkably well for McCain

Not everything I post is wrong.

I was right when I called Missouri(before the Media) for Obama even when the AP called it for Clinton.

Also, you should realize I am a republican. Others could identify me as anywhere from a moderate republican to a blue dog democrat(socially liberal, fiscally conservative).

Im for Obama in the Democratic race, because I fully believe the next president will be a Dem unless they fuck up again, which looks like it may happen again.

I dont want Clinton to be president because shes Hillary Clinton. She is a divisive figure in politics and would not move the country forward. Both Obama and McCain would move the country farther forward. I'd vote for a woman like Kay Bailey Hutchinson, who is a moderate pro-choice republican.

Its a pity Hutchinson is stepping down in 2010 to run for Governor of TX. Slick Rick plans to run for a third term(would be a total of 14 years). She can't beat Slick Rick because of her being Pro Choice. If she got past the primary she'd win, but she cannot, unless Dems crossed over to vote for her.

 

[CPA]

Originally posted by: Wreckem

Originally posted by: Dari

Originally posted by: Wreckem

Originally posted by: M0RPH
That poll is full of crap. It shows both Obama and Clinton beating McCain in Ohio by 10 points. The reality is it's going to be difficult for the democrat to win there (although Clinton has the better chance).

It's right about one thing though, when it shows that Clinton would win Florida and Obama wouldn't. Another big reason democrats should want Clinton as their candidate.

You continue to be delusional. Or you're racist like the Democrats in West VA.

I dont know what is worse, the battle between the evangelicals and fiscals in the GOP, or the battle between the social conservative dems and liberals in the Democratic Party.

Rockefeller endorsed Obama last week. But I'm not sure what that will do.

Well the Dems(not elected ones) in West VA, are the social conservative breed of Dems. Also known as the Reagen Democrats. This poll shows that a good deal of them are racist. Which is quite true. I mean Clinton beats McCain handily. While McCain beats Obama handily.

And this is how Obama will win: claim anyone who doesn't vote for him is a racist. The collective guilt of America will propel him into office.

 

[Wreckem]

Originally posted by: CPA

Originally posted by: Wreckem

Originally posted by: Dari

Originally posted by: Wreckem

Originally posted by: M0RPH
That poll is full of crap. It shows both Obama and Clinton beating McCain in Ohio by 10 points. The reality is it's going to be difficult for the democrat to win there (although Clinton has the better chance).

It's right about one thing though, when it shows that Clinton would win Florida and Obama wouldn't. Another big reason democrats should want Clinton as their candidate.

You continue to be delusional. Or you're racist like the Democrats in West VA.

I dont know what is worse, the battle between the evangelicals and fiscals in the GOP, or the battle between the social conservative dems and liberals in the Democratic Party.

Rockefeller endorsed Obama last week. But I'm not sure what that will do.

Well the Dems(not elected ones) in West VA, are the social conservative breed of Dems. Also known as the Reagen Democrats. This poll shows that a good deal of them are racist. Which is quite true. I mean Clinton beats McCain handily. While McCain beats Obama handily.

And this is how Obama will win: claim anyone who doesn't vote for him is a racist. The collective guilt of America will propel him into office.

So how else do you explain Dems in West VA not voting for Obama? He and Clinton are 99% the same on the issues. I;m sorry, but some of the biggest bigots and racists Ive know have been the socially conservative/fiscally liberal branck of the Democratic Party.

 

[alphatarget1]

Originally posted by: Wreckem

Originally posted by: alphatarget1
Neither Obama nor Clinton would win TX in this election, IMO.

<I live in TX.

I do too. However, you have the latino vote, the black vote, the liberal vote, and the suburban moderates that would vote for Obama. Its not likely he could win, but right now polling shows hes right there with McCain.

If you think conservative states like TX would vote for someone with Obama's liberal policies (abortion, health care, military, etc) you need a reality check. I don't see Obama winning any hard core red states, either, nor will Hillary. Swing states (Ohio, Floriduh and the likes), yes, but not hard core red states.

Republicans just need to bombard him with ads linking his liberal stance and liberal policies to Hillary's. You think Hillary's "negative" ads are bad? Wait till the general election, should Obama win the democratic nomination, God forbid.

 

[Robor]

Originally posted by: CPA
And this is how Obama will win: claim anyone who doesn't vote for him is a racist. The collective guilt of America will propel him into office.

You're kidding, right? There would be a huge 'reverse racism' backlash. It's not like votes are made public.

 

[Robor]

Originally posted by: alphatarget1

Floriduh

Ha ha. Funny.

 

[Wreckem]

Originally posted by: alphatarget1

Originally posted by: Wreckem

Originally posted by: alphatarget1
Neither Obama nor Clinton would win TX in this election, IMO.

<I live in TX.

I do too. However, you have the latino vote, the black vote, the liberal vote, and the suburban moderates that would vote for Obama. Its not likely he could win, but right now polling shows hes right there with McCain.

If you think conservative states like TX would vote for someone with Obama's liberal policies (abortion, health care, military, etc) you need a reality check. I don't see Obama winning any hard core red states, either, nor will Hillary. Swing states (Ohio, Floriduh and the likes), yes, but not hard core red states.

Republicans just need to bombard him with ads linking his liberal stance and liberal policies to Hillary's. You think Hillary's "negative" ads are bad? Wait till the general election, should Obama win the democratic nomination, God forbid.

Military? Obama is willing to increase the size of the military.
Abortion? Kay Bailey Hutchinson is PRO CHOICE. Shes won how many terms?

If it wasn't for Delay and Craddick gerrymandering there would be more elected dems to federal offices. Granted most would be Blue Dogs. Texas is slowly going to trend blue again. Probably not this election, but by 2016. Actually its trending to a moderate position. With a diverse population and issues, eventually TX will be dominated by Moderate Republicans and Blue Dog Democrats.

Heck you had several incumbent State House members lose on the 4th. You also have to remember, Dems GAINED in the State Legislature in 2006. They look to gain seats in the fall, pulling close to 50/50 in the State Legislature. Not to mention the Cornyn v. Noriega race is going to be close because Cornyn has an approval rating well below 50%.

Alot of Dems in TX blame the Clintons for the massive losses they suffered from 1994-2004. The Clintons wrote TX off.

 

[techs]

The question is does the poll report every one surveyed or just those who say they likely will vote?
The breakdown for the last 40 years has been that Democrats lead in polls of all people, but their supporters are far less likely to vote than Republicans.
In Texas blacks and Latinos make up an astounding 47 percent of the population.
But Latinos in Texas vote in far, far fewer numbers than any other group.
So a Texas poll, to be accurate would need to not only take into account whether voters say they will vote, but a statistical correction for those who traditionally say they will vote, but don't.

 

[Wreckem]

Originally posted by: techs
The question is does the poll report every one surveyed or just those who say they likely will vote?
The breakdown for the last 40 years has been that Democrats lead in polls of all people, but their supporters are far less likely to vote than Republicans.
In Texas blacks and Latinos make up an astounding 47 percent of the population.
But Latinos in Texas vote in far, far fewer numbers than any other group.
So a Texas poll, to be accurate would need to not only take into account whether voters say they will vote, but a statistical correction for those who traditionally say they will vote, but don't.

If you can get 3000 people packed into a caucus from 7:15 and until 2am(there was atleast one precient in Harris County that had that happen), the odds are you might just be able to mobilize your base extremely well.

 

[M0RPH]

Originally posted by: Wreckem

Alot of Dems in TX blame the Clintons for the massive losses they suffered from 1994-2004. The Clintons wrote TX off.

And yet still more Texas Dems voted for Clinton than Obama.