Tesla Semi and Roadster 2 (1.9 0-60) event

[PeterScott]

Perhaps I wasn't clear. There is no doubt the truck could be built right now. The question is can it match the specs Musk announced and be a viable alternative to an ICE? A truck with twenty thousand pounds of batteries is a joke, a truck with four thousand pounds of batteries is viable contender. I'll check out your link.

I don't have a horse in this race, but I'm always skeptical when marketing weenies make grand claims.

Calling Elon Musk a marketing weenie, is just childish. Even if you dislike him, you have to respect what he has accomplished at Tesla and SpaceX, and while he is often optimistic about timelines, he has delivered on the specifications.

 

[FireJack]

A lot of people are saying the whole semi presentation was to hide the model 3 production problems etc despite the presentation was scheduled long before the bottlenecks began. People buy into tesla because Elon delivers what he promises. He would not have said those trucks are capable of those things if that were not possible. Saying tesla is a failure because the model 3 production isn't ramping up as fast as they would like seems awfully pessimistic and there is no good reason to think that.

Looks like a lot of people are skepticle of the range claims though. Would be nice to see how they are able to accomplish this (beyond aerodynamics).

 

[PeterScott]

A lot of people are saying the whole semi presentation was to hide the model 3 production problems etc despite the presentation was scheduled long before the bottlenecks began. People buy into tesla because Elon delivers what he promises. He would not have said those trucks are capable of those things if that were not possible. Saying tesla is a failure because the model 3 production isn't ramping up as fast as they would like seems awfully pessimistic and there is no good reason to think that.

Looks like a lot of people are skepticle of the range claims though. Would be nice to see how they are able to accomplish this (beyond aerodynamics).

Range seems like the easiest part. They have stated twice the battery capacity (200KWh) of the Model S 100D (100KWh), and that has a Highway Range of 337 miles.

Double of the pack size, even if a bit heavier, and 620 miles seems like a reasonable target.

The real question is how did they get that many batteries in there. I suspect they double stacked them in places, and maybe added bit of central tunnel, and double stacked them in the rear "seat" area.

 

[zerocool84]

A lot of people are saying the whole semi presentation was to hide the model 3 production problems etc despite the presentation was scheduled long before the bottlenecks began. People buy into tesla because Elon delivers what he promises. He would not have said those trucks are capable of those things if that were not possible. Saying tesla is a failure because the model 3 production isn't ramping up as fast as they would like seems awfully pessimistic and there is no good reason to think that.

Looks like a lot of people are skepticle of the range claims though. Would be nice to see how they are able to accomplish this (beyond aerodynamics).

It's not to hide, it's to infuse money because they need it so they can actually build the amount of Model 3's that they allowed to pre-order. They don't get enough money from investors alone.

 

[Ns1]

If Amazon can run in the red for a decade+ before taking over the world why can't Tesla?

 

[manly]

If Amazon can run in the red for a decade+ before taking over the world why can't Tesla?

I'm far from an AMZN bull, but is this a real question?

I don't remember Amazon's exact performance since the late 1990s, but for most of the past decade, they've been close-ish to break even and that was a conscious business decision to "invest" in growth. I'm pretty sure they had healthy free cash flow even during all those money-losing years (again not going all the way back to the late 90s).

Tesla on the other hand has somewhere around $10B of debt and has resorted to floating junk bonds:
https://www.fool.com/investing/2017/08/07/tesla-to-raise-15-billion-in-debt-what-you-need-to.aspx

They've never been FCF positive although they had exactly one quarter where they had an accounting profit. Each time they raise money, Musk (who I greatly respect) claims it's not out of necessity but rather out of prudence in case capital markets tighten up. Yeah right...

 

[NoTine42]

Perhaps I wasn't clear. There is no doubt the truck could be built right now. The question is can it match the specs Musk announced and be a viable alternative to an ICE? A truck with twenty thousand pounds of batteries is a joke, a truck with four thousand pounds of batteries is viable contender. I'll check out your link.

I don't have a horse in this race, but I'm always skeptical when marketing weenies make grand claims.

Edit: Checked the link you supplied. They basically have the same questions as I did. There was also mention of hydrogen powered trucks that I was unaware of.

How many pounds are the typical diesel’s powertrain?
I see one Detroit Diesel being 2,540, another around 2,900
Transmission can be another 700
300 gallons of fuel 2,100
40qts of oil, DEF fluid, Exhaust...

https://energy.gov/eere/vehicles/fact-620-april-26-2010-class-8-truck-tractor-weight-component
Shows 4,100 for powertrain, Plus

• 3,100lbs: Miscellaneous accessories/systems includes batteries, fuel system, and exhaust hardware.
• 2,900 lbs Drivetrain and suspension includes drive axles, steer axle, and suspension system.

(And Tesla didn’t include a sleeper)

I’d agree theres not room for 20,000 lbs of batteries, but 10,000lbs may be within range.

 

[bradly1101]

Not for a long time.

Tesla's strategy is to reveal something snazzy but years off, put out pre-orders and use the money for those pre-orders for their current products. That's why they announced the truck and roadster. They are in need of more money.

They can't even build Model 3's automated yet which means they take forever to build any of them.

Ponzi-like scheme?

 

[Mayne]

I love this technology. Teh future is now

 

[bradly1101]

Until Tesla can make a reliable car, and until they put buttons/knobs on the dash/steering wheel so you don't have to take your eyes off the road so much, they're irrelevant and unsafe (IMO). Electric cars though of course are not.

All the flash of a "launch event" creates tremendous desire. When I see people lining up for (sometimes unproven) technology, I can't help but wonder why.

 

[Greenman]

Until Tesla can make a reliable car, and until they put buttons/knobs on the dash/steering wheel so you don't have to take your eyes off the road so much, they're irrelevant and unsafe (IMO). Electric cars though of course are not.

All the flash of a "launch event" creates tremendous desire. When I see people lining up for (sometimes unproven) technology, I can't help but wonder why.

Musk has a following that's almost cult like. A lot of people get angry if you question anything he says, or the quality/value of his cars. I'm sure it's a great place to be in, but I've never been able to understand why.

 

[PeterScott]

Musk has a following that's almost cult like. A lot of people get angry if you question anything he says, or the quality/value of his cars. I'm sure it's a great place to be in, but I've never been able to understand why.

It's reasonable to criticize his optimistic timelines, but a lot of the attacks on Musk look more like the jealous sniping of those who accomplish nothing, attempting to drag down those who do.

Typically they complain about "Government handouts", while the big three car companies have received MUCH more. Or complain about a fledgling car company on a massive growth curve losing money, like it could be any other way.

Why many are impressed with his accomplishments:

He's a visionary, technically capable, hands on CEO, that gets shit done, there haven't been many, he is very similar to Steve Jobs.

It's pretty clear he gets a lot of credit for spearheading the move to EVs, and he gets credit in nerd circles for his approach to problem solving: Going back to first principles of physics to see if something can be done.

Also for that little Rocket Ship company SpaceX, that lands rockets on barges at sea after they deliver payloads.

I remember thinking 300 mile range EVs, covering continents in high speed EV chargers, and landing rockets were crazy ideas, but Elon Musk has a way up making the crazy, into the reality.

At this point I wouldn't bet against Elon Musk.

 

[bradly1101]

It's reasonable to criticize his optimistic timelines, but a lot of the attacks on Musk look more like the jealous sniping of those who accomplish nothing, attempting to drag down those who do.

Typically they complain about "Government handouts", while the big three car companies have received MUCH more. Or complain about a fledgling car company on a massive growth curve losing money, like it could be any other way.

Why many are impressed with his accomplishments:

He's a visionary, technically capable, hands on CEO, that gets shit done, there haven't been many, he is very similar to Steve Jobs.

It's pretty clear he gets a lot of credit for spearheading the move to EVs, and he gets credit in nerd circles for his approach to problem solving: Going back to first principles of physics to see if something can be done.

Also for that little Rocket Ship company SpaceX, that lands rockets on barges at sea after they deliver payloads.

I remember thinking 300 mile range EVs, covering continents in high speed EV chargers, and landing rockets were crazy ideas, but Elon Musk has a way up making the crazy, into the reality.

At this point I wouldn't bet against Elon Musk.

I think we all have high hopes that Tesla succeeds; goundbreaking electric car designs help save the planet (although I wonder how high that consideration ranks with his typical customer). Musk has fully delivered on potentially reusable first stages in rockets, and SpaceX has also had a lot of spectacular explosions - so goes the rocket business. He now wants the whole rocket to be reusable.

I will reserve my enthusiasm on his ground vehicles until Musk's execution matches his dreams (and if they improve safety). Not there yet.