Tegra revenue down 48% Y/Y

[Genx87]

No, they can't. The x86 market was always a very small club with one big gorilla on the top of it, and there was always some significant market bracket that Intel wasn't interested on it. So when AMD missed their targeted parameters, either costs, scope or time to market they could always find a market bracket to dump their products with enough profitability to keep the company running until the next product.

The mobile ARM market is a different beast. You have Qualcomm at the top, but you also have Mediatek, Rockchip which is built around the idea of lean cost structure, and some vertically integrated manufacturers like Samsung and Apple. Nvidia cannot afford to miss targeted parameters there, because if they don't reach, let's say, the performance target they can't dump chips for cheap, because there's mediatek and others that excel on costs. They can't postpone the launch date, otherwise they fall out from the pack. It's a much less forgiving market than x86.

It may be less forgiving but that wont stop Nvidia from doing it as long as it takes. And they can do it for as long as they have money. AMD has sunk billions into the x86 market and never made money. That is my point. They dont have to make money in the market to remain within it.

 

[sontin]

nVidia will make money because they are increasing the chip output. This year they will release 3 different Tegra versions. They are one of the few companies which can offer a SoC with an integrated LTE modem - at least for China.

And the GPU business has been growing and will be growing. When the Tegra revenue comes back they will have a new record year.

 

[NTMBK]

nVidia will make money because they are increasing the chip output. This year they will release 3 different Tegra versions. They are one of the few companies which can offer a SoC with an integrated LTE modem - at least for China.

And the GPU business has been growing and will be growing. When the Tegra revenue comes back they will have a new record year.

Uh huh, sure. Just like how Tegra 4 was going to lead to a record breaking year, too. And how Tegra 4i was going to open up whole new markets in 2013. It's now 2014, and they're still shipping a Cortex A9 part with an outdated GPU? And this is going to turn the Tegra business around?

And bringing out both an A15 and a Denver version of the K1 isn't a good thing. It's a sign that Denver wasn't ready- again- and they've brought out a stopgap A15 part.

 

[witeken]

And bringing out both an A15 and a Denver version of the K1 isn't a good thing. It's a sign that Denver wasn't ready- again- and they've brought out a stopgap A15 part.

Denver was originally planned for Tegra 6, together with a Maxwell GPU.

 

[sontin]

Uh huh, sure. Just like how Tegra 4 was going to lead to a record breaking year, too. And how Tegra 4i was going to open up whole new markets in 2013. It's now 2014, and they're still shipping a Cortex A9 part with an outdated GPU? And this is going to turn the Tegra business around?

Yes, it will. Nobody cares about these specs in a phone. Tegra 4i has a 1W TDP. It's cheap, fast and uses only a fraction of the power of Tegra 4.

And bringing out both an A15 and a Denver version of the K1 isn't a good thing. It's a sign that Denver wasn't ready- again- and they've brought out a stopgap A15 part.

And if you look at nVidia's Roadmap Denver was never announced for 2014. But like always: Whatever nVidia is doing they cant win.

 

[mrmt]

It may be less forgiving but that wont stop Nvidia from doing it as long as it takes. And they can do it for as long as they have money. AMD has sunk billions into the x86 market and never made money. That is my point. They dont have to make money in the market to remain within it.

And your point is wrong. AMD always had the very bottom of the x86 market to scrap, so regardless of the success or failure of their top of the line products, they could earn some cash in the bottom. Which product do you think that saved AMD's bacon in the last couple of year, derpdozer FX or derpdozer APU and that huge dies of them, or Brazos and Jaguar, small, cheap chips that had a niche all for themselves in the x86 market since Intel wouldn't go after it?

Nvidia doesn't have that luxury in the mobile market. If they don't beat Qualcomm or Samsung to the punch in performance, there's always Mediateks and Rockchips to undercut them product on price so they don't sell. That's the reason on why their Tegra sales crashed YoY. Nvidia faces a much tougher situation, and a far more dangerous one in the ARM market than AMD on the x86 market.

 

[AnandThenMan]

To once again quote a wise man, when you don't have product worth talking about you talk about the future.

 

[sontin]

Nvidia doesn't have that luxury in the mobile market. If they don't beat Qualcomm or Samsung to the punch in performance, there's always Mediateks and Rockchips to undercut them product on price so they don't sell. That's the reason on why their Tegra sales crashed YoY. Nvidia faces a much tougher situation, and a far more dangerous one in the ARM market than AMD on the x86 market.

Seriously? nVidia's Tegra business crashed because they delayed Tegra 4. It's on a recovery road since FQ2 2014. In 6 months they will easily have a triple digit grow.

 

[NTMBK]

Seriously? nVidia's Tegra business crashed because they delayed Tegra 4. It's on a recovery road since FQ2 2014. In 6 months they will easily have a triple digit grow.

Even if they have 100% growth, they will still only be back where they were in FY2013... i.e. losing money hand over fist.

 

[xpea]

Even if they have 100% growth, they will still only be back where they were in FY2013... i.e. losing money hand over fist.

well from financial analysis day, JHH said that breaking point on Tegra business is around 1 billion turnover (cost of this division is around 500M). I think this target is doable for 2014.
But most important, JHH also said that Tegra division cost will be lower in the future as Tegra tech will be present in all Nvidia products. In other words, all future Nvidia products will be sort of Tegra (in a not so distant future, all GPUs will have ARM cores)

on a side note, I don't understand all this bashing on Tegra. What people want ? to have only a limited choice of 3~4 SoC brands ? I thought that choice is good for competition and consumers. This market is tough, many huge companies already left, so we must be glad to see Nvidia trying to find their place...

 

[mrmt]

Seriously? nVidia's Tegra business crashed because they delayed Tegra 4. It's on a recovery road since FQ2 2014. In 6 months they will easily have a triple digit grow.

Can I quote you on that?

 

[krumme]

well from financial analysis day, JHH said that breaking point on Tegra business is around 1 billion turnover (cost of this division is around 500M). I think this target is doable for 2014.
But most important, JHH also said that Tegra division cost will be lower in the future as Tegra tech will be present in all Nvidia products. In other words, all future Nvidia products will be sort of Tegra (in a not so distant future, all GPUs will have ARM cores)

on a side note, I don't understand all this bashing on Tegra. What people want ? to have only a limited choice of 3~4 SoC brands ? I thought that choice is good for competition and consumers. This market is tough, many huge companies already left, so we must be glad to see Nvidia trying to find their place...

Jhh is going arm way because its the future for nv. As for having lower cost using tegra in all gpu its bs but just illustrates you can move cost to the devision you want anyway.

I think nv will have left mobile gpu in 4 years. At that time arm is hopefulle at full steam.

And i agree its good with competition here. Arm is taking great steps forward because of that competition.

 

[xpea]

I think nv will have left mobile gpu in 4 years. At that time arm is hopefulle at full steam.

hmmm... Do you mean that in 4 years time, with UHD/4K panels will be the norm, iGPUs will be powerful enough to run the vast majority of the games, including AAA titles ?
that sounds very very very optimistic, knowing that today, next gen console APUs struggle to keep 60pcs at FHD
and I don't even talk about 8k resolution that Japanese are already experimenting...
IMHO, iGPU won't catch up the raw power needed for these future insane resolutions for at least another 10 years. Of course, I may be wrong

 

[erunion]

Your assumption that increased resolutions will slow the adoption of iGPUs is suspect.

Mobile resolutions are increasing much more quickly than PCs, without a single dGPU to drive it.

 

[xpea]

Your assumption that increased resolutions will slow the adoption of iGPUs is suspect.

Mobile resolutions are increasing much more quickly than PCs, without a single dGPU to drive it.

Maybe I misunderstood, but "mobile GPU" is for laptops in my mind, where you can have iGPU alone (Haswell for example) or combo setup with dGPU like GT650M.
SoC GPU is for phones/tablets.
so which market are we talking about ?
For me, Nvidia is safe for another 10 years with traditional desktop GPUs and mobile GPUs (because of the increased resolution trend).
Regarding SoC, I don't know but Nvidia has already a very clear roadmap for the next 2 years. And Parker, IMHO, will be the deciding factor, because it will be the first "real" 100% in house next gen SoC fully optimized for mobile from the ground (highly efficient Maxwell GPU, high performance Denver ARMv8 CPU and 16nm FinFet).
If Parker, with the best that Nvidia can offer, fails, then they can think seriously again about their SoC plan...

 

[Despoiler]

Seriously? nVidia's Tegra business crashed because they delayed Tegra 4. It's on a recovery road since FQ2 2014. In 6 months they will easily have a triple digit grow.

No, Nvidia's Tegra business crashed because Google isn't proping them up with the Nexus.

 

[StrangerGuy]

NV should have a killer product 3 years ago when the market was still growing and SoC performance is desperately needed for laggy Android, and not now when everyone has a Snapdragon 800 that is clearly overpowered for most people in a already saturated market.

 

[ams23]

1. K1 still does not have an integrated LTE modem, for a 2014 SoC. That is a shanda.

There are pluses and minuses to having a built-in LTE modem. Time to market will increase (all else equal), cost of SoC will increase (all else equal), and CPU/GPU performance will decrease (all else equal) for a given SoC die size because the LTE modem will eat up area on the SoC die that could otherwise be used by the CPU/GPU. Remember that NVIDIA is now targeting primarily high end smartphones, tablets, gaming portables, televisions, and automotive (they are not heavily focused on low-end or midrange smartphones where a built-in LTE modem is highly desired).

 

[ams23]

And bringing out both an A15 and a Denver version of the K1 isn't a good thing. It's a sign that Denver wasn't ready- again- and they've brought out a stopgap A15 part.

Actually it is a great thing. The Denver variant will be well-positioned for a 64-bit Android platform. The fact that it is pin compatible with the R3 A15 variant is great too, because that compatibility should speed up implementation in real world devices.

 

[ams23]

And the GPU business has been growing and will be growing. When the Tegra revenue comes back they will have a new record year.

I don't think we have enough information at this point to declare that Tegra will have a "record year", but it is pretty obvious that Tegra revenue for next full fiscal year will be way higher than the most recent full fiscal year. The Tegra automotive business is clearly growing larger and larger each year too, to the point where it is a very significant contributor to Tegra revenue.

 

[erunion]

Maybe I misunderstood, but "mobile GPU" is for laptops in my mind, where you can have iGPU alone (Haswell for example) or combo setup with dGPU like GT650M.
SoC GPU is for phones/tablets.
so which market are we talking about ?
For me, Nvidia is safe for another 10 years with traditional desktop GPUs and mobile GPUs (because of the increased resolution trend).
Regarding SoC, I don't know but Nvidia has already a very clear roadmap for the next 2 years. And Parker, IMHO, will be the deciding factor, because it will be the first "real" 100% in house next gen SoC fully optimized for mobile from the ground (highly efficient Maxwell GPU, high performance Denver ARMv8 CPU and 16nm FinFet).
If Parker, with the best that Nvidia can offer, fails, then they can think seriously again about their SoC plan...

By mobile I meant phone/tablet, by PC I meant desktop and laptops.

To reiterate, there is no reason to be believe that an increase in PC resolution will slow the adoption of iGPU and decline of dGPU. iGPU are on the rise for reasons other than absolute performance; namely power, size and cost.

dGPU marketing will continue shrinking until only the high end gaming desktops is left. Which will put them on the edge of extinction.

 

[krumme]

hmmm... Do you mean that in 4 years time, with UHD/4K panels will be the norm, iGPUs will be powerful enough to run the vast majority of the games, including AAA titles ?
that sounds very very very optimistic, knowing that today, next gen console APUs struggle to keep 60pcs at FHD
and I don't even talk about 8k resolution that Japanese are already experimenting...
IMHO, iGPU won't catch up the raw power needed for these future insane resolutions for at least another 10 years. Of course, I may be wrong

You will just game at 1080p then

Mgpu is a segment going slowly away and nv needs to focus. There is no business selling only highend.

Already in a year we have ddr4. It will solve the bandwith situation. The cache solutions is comming on top of that. In a year when a mobile igpu is console speed the market will already be going away. Its not that different to the chipset business imho.

 

[sontin]

Here, Maxwell:

The GPU market is still evolving and growing. And the nVidia's Maxwell will improve the perf/watt on TMSC's 28nm process. Next year with 20nm we will see another improvement.

iGPU will never catch up.

 

[krumme]

NV should have a killer product 3 years ago when the market was still growing and SoC performance is desperately needed for laggy Android, and not now when everyone has a Snapdragon 800 that is clearly overpowered for most people in a already saturated market.

This argument is right as long as the mobile market doesnt change its direction. Imho there is a chance mobile will take an even greater role as gaming platform and some of the pc productive work.

Apple is moving to big screens now. And the rest of the world have been going there since note 1. I think that could potentially change the user behaviour.

 

[krumme]

Actually it is a great thing. The Denver variant will be well-positioned for a 64-bit Android platform. The fact that it is pin compatible with the R3 A15 variant is great too, because that compatibility should speed up implementation in real world devices.

Well the basic problem is its all just words and underdelivering until now. Seeing 805 and beeing on the werge on a new arch from qq h1 2015 i dont have high hopes for either Intel nor nvidia. But ofcource if qq delivers a bd the other will have their chance.