Tech bubble in San Francisco slowing?

[RichieZ]

First, you're assuming that there is even a tech bubble in the first place. Many of these companies have solid revenue and worldwide reach including Uber, Lyft, Twitter, Airbnb, Pinterest, Zenefits, and many more. Is tech overvalued? It probably is. Is it a bubble? No one knows but it isn't like 2000.

Second, you're also assuming that there is a housing bubble. It's not really a bubble ready to burst if people are paying cash and owning the place outright. This isn't the same as 2008.

If I were to break down the reasons SF real estate is nuts, I'd say it's something like this:

-25% Tech Money
-25% from foreign buyers such as Chinese
-20% Low interest rates makes buying cheaper than renting and creates easy money
-15% from people saved up money during the crash and is now ready to buy
-15% from just a really good overall local economy

Someone else mentioned that the recent Chinese crash might cause more investment into Bay Area properties as a safe haven.

I think the market will slow down in 2016, maybe even flatline in growth but it won't "crash".

i was an early (first 30 employees) at one of the still private companies on your list, i'm also an ex earlish employee at a public decaunicorn and work at another unicorn right now.

my personal thought is that the valuations are very agressive right now, all the late stage growth rounds are basically private ipos where fidelity, t-rowe price etc are trying to get in earlier and they have no risk b/c of 1x liquidity preference.

there is a lot of money out there right now so you need a liquidity event or to be a more senior person at an established tech company to buy a hosue, hell i was interviewing a google employee recently and their total comp (base, bonus, rsu) is north of $400K a year which is pretty great for the very low risk

I forgot the site, but someone once showed me a site that shows where everyone is moving from/to. it was pretty neat, and one of things I noticed was an influx of people from SF/Bay Area moving to places like Austin, TX - obviously to avoid the shitty housing situation in CA.

Anyone here know that site? Definitely wouldn't mind seeing it again.

https://www.redfin.com/blog/2015/05/the-digital-diaspora.html#.VWNEYFnBzGd