Take a look at S&P500 history....... just bet on it.

[Zeze]

That's the 'entire' market (well, domestic) - supposedly one of the most conservative growth. The entire damn thing is an absolute bull marathon.

The only thing S&P500 will truly crash is if aliens attack us or global warming destroying half the planet.

 

[deadlyapp]

Overlay that against our federal deficit and spending and see where federal bailout affects the overall market. Bet you'll find that external market influences (read: government) are the only thing that keeps this looking positive, while our federal government continues to climb climb climb in debt.

 

[brianmanahan]

so bullish about the S&P500 right now

just bought 2 shares of SPY

 

[Muse]

SPY is my buy but I have rules. Buy and hold the SPY (S&P500 index ETF) has netted an average annual return around 10% since its inception about 1992. That beats the great majority of investment managers! That's just buying and holding! The downside is just the feelings in your stomach from the roller coaster ride. If you can manage that (or better, ignore it) nice ride. Clobbers inflation and beats CDs, not to mention bonds and online savings accounts (where I have most of my cash now).

I follow the 10/40 crossover method for buy/sell. Golden Cross = buy after 3 week confirmation. Death Cross = sell after 3 week confirmation. Some people use 2 weeks, others 3 weeks for confirmation. I back tested this system and since the SPY inception it's netted an average of 2% more than if buy and hold was your rule.

Of course, if you add to your holding or subtract from it, it complicates your system some. My testing did not account for those exigencies.

In late February I broke my rule and sold early saving me a lot of money... I just knew the market was gonna tank so I jumped the gun.

 

[dullard]

Overlay that against our federal deficit and spending and see where federal bailout affects the overall market. Bet you'll find that external market influences (read: government) are the only thing that keeps this looking positive, while our federal government continues to climb climb climb in debt.

Easy enough: 1966 to 2019

 

[Muse]

Easy enough: 1966 to 2019
View attachment 22060

So? The debt is the straight dotted line?

 

[dullard]

The entire damn thing is an absolute bull marathon.

The only thing S&P500 will truly crash is if aliens attack us or global warming destroying half the planet.

Your sentiment is correct: simply buy and hold the S&P stocks and you will likely become wealthy.

You do miss important nuances in that graph though. Buying the S&P in these times was not the best option:

• 1933 to 1936
• 1943 to 1949
• 1966 to 1979
• 2001 to 2003
• 2007 to 2009

I prefer to buy and hold the S&P at all times, but buy and hold MORE when the market is down.

 

[dullard]

So? The debt is the straight dotted line?

The debt is the horizontal x-axis. If you want debt as a dotted line, it is this orange line:

 

[Zeze]

The debt is the horizontal x-axis. If you want debt as a dotted line, it is this orange line:
View attachment 22062

In another words, business as usual.

 

[deadlyapp]

The debt is the horizontal x-axis. If you want debt as a dotted line, it is this orange line:
View attachment 22062

This was the type of plot I was interested in. Curve gets much steeper coming out of the 03 recession and then even steeper such after 09. It's too bad we can't have the type of growth and lack of national spending like we had pre 03

 

[skyking]

that was largely a consequence of the dotcom boom. People like to taut how Clinton was so good for the economy, LOL!
He was just along for a wild ride

 

[dullard]

that was largely a consequence of the dotcom boom. People like to taut how Clinton was so good for the economy, LOL!
He was just along for a wild ride

Yes, we know you think only positive things happen from Republican presidents from decades prior and only negative things happen from Democrat presidents in office. We've had that that line of thinking bashed into our heads for 30 years now.

 

[snoopy7548]

Darn it to heck, I should have bought back in 1960.
-Boomer, probably.

But for real, the majority of people who think they can beat the market (or keeping all of their "investments" in cash) would be better off just buying and holding some total-market index fund.

 

[Svnla]

I have most of my investment in S+P index fund via dollar cost average. It is almost back to the all time high in March (about $100 now vs. $105 then) but the escalating of the federal debt and the unfunded liabilities (federal, states, local entities) in the trillion and trillion surely are troublesome.

 

[zinfamous]

"zeze looks at a stock index chart history for first time in his life and posts about it."

 

[ElFenix]

Easy enough: 1966 to 2019
View attachment 22060

and that's because public debt is private surplus

 

[brianmanahan]

"zeze looks at a stock index chart history for first time in his life and posts about it."

 

[Charmonium]

That's the 'entire' market (well, domestic) - supposedly one of the most conservative growth. The entire damn thing is an absolute bull marathon.

The only thing S&P500 will truly crash is if aliens attack us or global warming destroying half the planet.

I'm pretty sure that chart doesn't account for inflation.

 

[dullard]

I'm pretty sure that chart doesn't account for inflation.

You can see both forms here (of course, the next question is what did you do with the dividends that aren't in the charts, those very roughly counteract inflation):

S&P 500 Index - 90 Year Historical Chart

Interactive chart of the S&P 500 stock market index since 1927. Historical data is inflation-adjusted using the headline CPI and each data point represents the month-end closing value. The current month is updated on an hourly basis with today's latest value.

www.macrotrends.net

Buy at the local peaks on some of the worst days in history to buy and you'd still have done quite well.