Syria massing troops on Israeli border - 'Ready for war'

[Duddy]

[Source]

TEL AVIV ? Syria, aided by Iran, has deployed a strengthened army along Israel's northern border and is prepared to launch a surprise war against the Jewish state, according to senior Israeli security officials.

The development comes as Prime Minister Ehud Olmert yesterday told the Knesset he is ready for direct negotiations with Syria aimed at an Israeli retreat from the Golan Heights, strategic mountainous territory that looks down on Israeli population centers twice used by Damascus to attack the Jewish state.

With Israelis this week commemorating the 40th anniversary of the Six-Day War ? when neighbors Egypt, Jordan and Syria attacked the Jewish state ? Israeli security officials told WND Syria has prepared for a confrontation and is capable of launching an immediate war.

The officials say the Syrian army is deployed along the Syrian side of the Golan Heights with strengthened forces after carrying out the past few weeks stepped-up training of troops. The officials noted the open movement of Syrian Scud missiles near the border with Israel and said Syria recently increased production of rockets and acquired missiles capable of hitting central Israeli population centers.

[Source]

A member of the Syrian parliament, Muhammad Habash, confirmed on Tuesday that his country was actively preparing for war with Israel, expected to break out in the summer, Israel Radio reported.

In an interview with Al Jazeera, Habash said it was no secret that the Syrian military was arming itself for the upcoming confrontation with the IDF.

He also claimed that the Israeli government was the one that wanted the war so that it could survive politically.

Meanwhile, Pensioners Affairs Minister Rafi Eitan (GIL Pensioners) said on Tuesday that in negotiations with Syria, Israel must relate to the matter of the Golan Heights as a real estate issue.








Here we go again!

 

[Aimster]

This article is for people who don;t follow the military aspect of nations in the M.E.

Syria is doing no such thing because it has nothing to invade Israel with.

The only thing Syria would ever do is invade the Golan Heights. That's it.

 

[IronWing]

WND, yawn.

 

[nick1985]

When will they learn...every time they attack Israel they get their asses kicked.

 

[bsobel]

Originally posted by: Aimster
This article is for people who don;t follow the military aspect of nations in the M.E.
Syria is doing no such thing because it has nothing to invade Israel with.
The only thing Syria would ever do is invade the Golan Heights. That's it.

The *only* thing? This would give Syria control of the eastern shore of Galilee (vs the Israel proposal which claims the border is a few hundred meters east). Given the region I find it hard to believe that Israel wouldn't fight hard for strategic water right.

I also find it hard to believe Syria would run for this vs make rumblings to help their side in negotiations (albeit last summers war may have convinced them that Israel is too weak to fight this one)

 

[Aimster]

I believe the last war Israel actually attacked Syria first.

Syria and Jordan had a defensive pact with Egypt. Egypt was up to something and Israel decided to attack Egypt and take out their air force. Israel knew about the defensive pact so it took out Syria and Jordan's air force as well before they could do anything about it.

In a matter of days the Arabs had thousands of tanks, with zero air support. Ground troops are worthless without air support. The Arabs knew this and sent the tanks back home to their cities while the Israelis advanced with their air support.

Israel knew in the 1960s that to win a war it would need to win the air campaign first. It didn't get arrogant and knew that occupation was going to be deadly. It retreated back and gave most of the land back (obviously not all - current disputes).

U.S had air control in the invasion of Iraq, but failed to think further ahead. This is what I like to call too much arrogance by the [people] running the show.

 

[bsobel]

Originally posted by: nick1985
When will they learn...every time since 1948 that they attack Israel they get their asses kicked.

Fixed

 

[Duddy]

Last year's war proved to Syria, Iran and Hezbollah that Israel is not as powerful as they had thought. And with Iran saying that the countdwon to Israel's desctruction had begun, I see the conflict bound to happen.

 

[bsobel]

Originally posted by: Aimster
I believe the last war Israel actually attacked Syria first.

By last war you mean '73 I presume? If so, thats not really a fair summary...

"The October 1973 War (known in Israel as the Yom Kippur War and in the Arab world as the Ramadan War) developed rapidly, and the coordinated Egyptian-Syrian offensive caught Israel by surprise. On September 28, Palestinian guerrillas detained an Austrian train carrying Soviet Jews en route to Israel. Subsequent Egyptian and Syrian military deployments were interpreted by Israel as defensive actions in anticipation of Israeli reprisals. For one week, Israel postponed mobilizing its troops. Not until the morning of Yom Kippur (October 6), about six hours before the Arab offensive, were Israeli officials convinced that war was imminent; a mobilization of the reserves was then ordered. In the early days of the war, the IDF suffered heavy losses as Egyptian forces crossed the Suez Canal and overran Israeli strongholds, while Syrians marched deep into the Golan Heights. Israel launched its counteroffensive first against the Syrian front, and only when it had pushed the Syrians back well east of the 1967 cease-fire line (by October 15) did Israel turn its attention to the Egyptian front. In ten days of fighting, Israel pushed the Egyptian army back across the canal, and the IDF made deep incursions into Egypt. On October 24, with Israeli soldiers about one kilometer from the main Cairo-Ismailia highway and the Soviet Union threatening direct military intervention, the UN imposed a cease-fire. "

"Golda Meir, Moshe Dayan, and Israeli general David Elazar met at 8:05 a.m. the morning of Yom Kippur, 6 hours before the war was to begin. Dayan began the meeting by arguing that war was not a certainty. Elazar then presented his argument, in favor of a pre-emptive attack against Syrian airfields at noon, Syrian missiles at 3:00 p.m., and Syrian ground forces at 5:00 p.m. "When the presentations were done, the prime minister hemmed uncertainly for a few moments but then came to a clear decision. There would be no preemptive strike. Israel might be needing American assistance soon and it was imperative that it not be blamed for starting the war. 'If we strike first, we won't get help from anybody', she said."[19] European nations, under threat of an Arab oil embargo and trade boycott, had stopped supplying Israel with munitions. As a result, Israel was totally dependent on the United States to resupply its army, and was particularly sensitive to anything that might endanger that relationship.

Some claim that in retrospect the decision not to strike first was actually a sound one. While Operation Nickel Grass, the American airlift of supplies during the war which began October 13, did not immediately replace Israel's losses in equipment, it did allow Israel to expend what it did have more freely.[20] Had they struck first, according to Henry Kissinger, they would not have received "so much as a nail"."


The amazing thing is in '73 150 Israeli tanks held off a massively larger force (1400+) in the valley of tears (one of the two natural chokepoints the golans provide to the Israeli's)...

 

[Aimster]

Israel got a beating by "invading" Lebanon, but Israel doesn't have to invade Syria to win a war.
Without an invasion into Syria, Israel is not going to get a beating,.

It will be Syria will be take a hard beating by F-16s. I don't know what Syria has in t heir

Hezbollah and Syria's armies are not invading forces. They will be crushed. They are defensive forces meant to stop an invasion. That is why Israel took a punch because they were invading. Had it been the other way around, Hezbollah would be exterminated and Israel wouldn't have lost a single soldier.

 

[bsobel]

Hezbollah and Syria's armies are not invading forces. They will be crushed. They are defensive forces meant to stop an invasion. That is why Israel took a punch because they were invading. Had it been the other way around, Hezbollah would be exterminated and Israel wouldn't have lost a single soldier.

Yes ma'am, the data on the MiG is inaccurate. Syria's army mobilizes out to 320k solidies (some reports say 430k, but those seem stretched), eight armored divisions, three mech dividions, ~5000 tanks, ~4500 apc, 600+ combat planes. It's not a purely defensive force.

But Hussein has to know Bush would love ANY excuse to hit them, I still can't believe they'd start anything with even a weakened US precense on their eastern flank.

 

[Sinsear]

I'm not seeing this story reported on by any of the major media outlets...I would think imminent war between Syria and Israel would be a hot item and all over the networks.

 

[Aimster]

bsobel,
my mistake.

I was thinking of the six-day war. Forgot about that one.

 

[Whoozyerdaddy]

Goodbye Syria. We hardly knew ya.

Come on... Why would Syria do this? Israel won't even break a sweat if Syria decides to do anything. I'll give the over/under at 8 days for how long Syria can actually wage any kind of effective warfare against Israel.

 

[bsobel]

Originally posted by: Aimster
bsobel, my mistake. I was thinking of the six-day war. Forgot about that one.

Your right then, but bear in mind it wasn't a simple 'we are going to attack Egypt so we might as well attack Syria'. Syria had been using the Golans for years to hit Israeli population centers (especially in 65 and 66). They were pretty upset about the creation of the Israeli national water carrier to take water from the Jordan river to supply the country.

(Egypt and Syria did the MAP in '66. It was brokered by the Soviets to ensure Israel wouldn't attack Syria for fear of bringing Egypt in, ironic isn't it?)

In April 67 the Israeli's finally hit back and shot down 6 Syrian fighers. It's reported (rumored) that then the Soviets and Egyptians told Damascus that the Israeli army was massing for an attack against Syria. Syria decided to invoke it's defense treat with Egypt. About a month later (more like 6 weeks AFAIR) Egypt had massed forced in Sinai and Syria had massed along the Golan Heights.

After massing troops Egypt kicked the UN force out of Sinai and arab radio broadcast "As of today, there no longer exists an international emergency force to protect Israel. We shall exercise patience no more. We shall not complain any more to the UN about Israel. The sole method we shall apply against Israel is total war, which will result in the extermination of Zionist existence"

Two days later Syria broadcast "Our forces are now entirely ready not only to repulse the aggression, but to initiate the act of liberation itself, and to explode the Zionist presence in the Arab homeland. The Syrian army, with its finger on the trigger, is united....I, as a military man, believe that the time has come to enter into a battle of annihilation"

Egypt then shut down the straights of tiran (and I love this part, cut off Israel from it's primary oil provider Iran, sometimes I do miss the Shah, say what you will but he was a stabalizing force in the region ) It was this action which is legally recognized as the casus belli.

Jordan then joined the arab defense pack, as did lebabon and a few days later, Iraq.

Egypt kept challenging Israel to fight, he said 'The Arab people want to fight" "We will not accept any coexistance with Israel" etc.

The actual first blood was indeed taken by the Israeli's. They sent almost their entire air force (sans 12 fighters) into Egypt, and then Jordan, and finally Syria. In that day they destroyed practicallly the entire Egyption and Jordan airforces and half of the Syrian one.

 

[Jhhnn]

Funny- I can't find any reference to Habash's alleged remarks that don't source the Israeli television station...

Which means it could all be yet another effort to avoid negotiation from the Israelis...

 

[bsobel]

Originally posted by: Jhhnn
Funny- I can't find any reference to Habash's alleged remarks that don't source the Israeli television station... Which means it could all be yet another effort to avoid negotiation from the Israelis...

UPI sources Al Jazeera.... "Muhammad Habash, a member of the Syrian parliament, told the Al Jazeera satellite television station last week that Syria was expecting an outbreak of hostilities with the Jewish state this summer. "

 

[lozina]

phony story. what's syria going to invade with, horse drawn carriages with a mounted civil war era gatling gun? comon...

 

[Jhhnn]

Wrong, bsobel- UPI sources Israeli radio which sources Al Jazeera... they don't source Al Jazeera directly... there is a difference.

I even searched the Al Jazeera English site for "Muhammad Habash"- no results...

Which is not to say anything other than I don't really trust Israeli sources wrt the subject matter...

 

[Sinsear]

Mohammad al Habash, a Syrian parliament member, meanwhile, told the Al Jazeera satellite channel this week that his country was actively preparing for war with Israel, which he said he expected to break out this summer.

Full text here. Not sure how credible of a source this is.

 

[Jhhnn]

I think that one's just sloppy journalism, Sinsear. It's an exact quote of the article linked in the OP, just adding "meanwhile"...

We may be witnessing an example of the old refrain about how repeating a lie often enough makes it into the truth...

Each successive generation of lazy semi-plagiaristic journalism merely adding to the milieu...

 

[ProfJohn]

What does Syria hope to gain by attacking Israel?

I don?t see anything here that suggests Israel is going to launch the attack, but I could be wrong.
Maybe Syria and Iran are working with Hezbollah on another raid and Syria expects to get involved this time?
I don?t know.

I don?t know that Syria is pretty much alone this time, no Egypt or anyone else to help them.

 

[Sinsear]

I think if this was imminent we would be seeing this everywhere. Hell when Israel invaded Lebanon last year it was 24 hr coverage on CNN. Would be funny though to see the Syrians get their asses handed to them, however the powder keg over there doesn't need any more sparks.

 

[Aimster]

What does Syria hope to gain by attacking Israel?

I think they'll attack the Golan Heights. Try to occupy it and reclaim it.
I don't think Syria cares who occupies Israel anymore. They just want their land back.

Hezbollah is not controlled by Syria or Iran. Hezbollah just uses them. Iran uses Syria. Neither have control over the other.

The only time the Arabs were so united was when the Soviet empire was at its peak. The Soviet Union is dead and so are the alliances between the Arabs.

People ask why does the U.S support Israel so much? Israel was never with the Soviets. The Arabs were. Why did the U.S love Iran so much when the Shah was in power? He was anti-Soviet.

During their wars with Israel, the Soviets always used their UN power and military influence to try to make the Arabs beat the U.S' ally. Soviet weapons sucked. If I recall, Russia even sent in their best pilots to fight the Israelis and they got owned.
I wonder if Russian tech still sucks this much today.

 

[ProfJohn]

Aimster, do you really think they could take and keep the Golan Heights though?

Think Israel would allow that to happen?

It is one thing to fight a guerrilla force like Hezbollah, a very different thing to fight a nation like Syria.
I just don?t understand why Syria would risk a war with them. They have never been able to win in the past, maybe they think they can win now?