Syria Calls Obama's Bluff, Uses Nerve Agent GB (Sarin)

Page 3 - Seeking answers? Join the AnandTech community: where nearly half-a-million members share solutions and discuss the latest tech.

Doppel

Lifer
Feb 5, 2011
13,306
3
0
Just saw on Wired that the White House HAS acknowledged that Assad used gas, however, as far as this author is concerned the WH is now only concerned with systematic use of it:

http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2013/04/syria-red-line/

I.e. Assad got a freebie. But next time, guys, we're seriously serious. No more chem weapons!
 
Last edited:

jackschmittusa

Diamond Member
Apr 16, 2003
5,972
1
0
We do not yet have proof of the origin or intent of the gas attacks


The possibility of these being false flag operations has already been mentioned and absent any further evidence I think the probably quite high that this is the case.

The attacks were very small in the context of chemical warfare. They were ineffective from any military perspective: they repelled no advance, they denied no ground, they did not degrade any effective force through personnel or command and control structure, they achieved no military objective whatsoever.

The possible reasons they were small and ineffective would include:
1) The previously mentioned tip toeing on the "red line". This would appear to me to be an exercise in stupidity if true, so I would rate it as a low probability.

2) The use of old, defective, or damaged rounds, or the deployment of poorly trained or inexperienced personnel. It would seem that any even marginally competent military unit could identify these munitions defects quite readily. The idea of willfully dispensing such munitions to untrained units is absurd on its face for many technical reasons. It is however possible (and more likely in my opinion) that these weapons fell into the hands of civilians (rebels?) by theft or fortuitous capture of a stockpile who were not trained in their use. (Since these are currently speculated to be gas filled mortar rounds, no heavy or sophisticated systems are needed to deploy them.) Several rebel factions have serious differences where the loss of some of the opposing faction might be viewed as a collateral benefit while attempting to bring new players into the conflict. The only real reason to fire a couple of rounds and scoot (which seems to be the attackers M.O.) is because sticking around long enough to be identified and positioned would result in your destruction. Rebels sneaking into the margins of army territory to give evidence of firing location would be such a group. Friendly forces on the army side would have far less to fear.

3) With no determinable military objective, it seems rational and prudent to consider other possible objectives which might even include agents of a foreign power who seek to advance their own agenda or solidify a position.

Hasty action on our part with large gaps in our intel at this point could lead to very undesirable consequences. Action should be taken but it would serve us well to be certain it is the correct and appropriate action. Let's never see an historical footnote that says "2013 -the year that [such and such a group/nation] played the United States like a fiddle.
 

jackschmittusa

Diamond Member
Apr 16, 2003
5,972
1
0
Doppel

I went back and read your link (I had previously just scanned it).

One thing that still makes me leery is that we have been keeping a pretty active intel gathering activity on the area in relation to unit deployment, strength, and weapons capabilities. While we did report observing preparation activity involving chemical weapons some time ago, there is still no trail of issuing the weapons, or unit identification receiving the weapons, or unit maneuver to deploy the weapons. The depth and breadth of our intel gathering people and equipment is enormous. It suggests a very small, stealthy group that does not attract a large amount of resources dedicated to monitoring them. It does not rule out a military unit but it is not the "smoking gun" either. Our government even recently admitted that they did not have enough to connect all of the dots yet. There is much more to be learned I think.
 

moonbogg

Lifer
Jan 8, 2011
10,731
3,440
136
Nothing will happen. Lots of words, no action. Maybe sometime in the next 18 months, when we are damn good and ready, we'll send the rebels some more night vision goggles.
 

wirednuts

Diamond Member
Jan 26, 2007
7,121
4
0
as much as i dont want to get into more wars, i feel like we should go into syria and annihilate everyone in power.
 

Nebor

Lifer
Jun 24, 2003
29,582
12
76
Two groups that both hate the United States are killing each other, for free. This is the definition of a win win.
 

jackschmittusa

Diamond Member
Apr 16, 2003
5,972
1
0
The righties have been well trained in the Bush Doctrine. Now they demand all Presidents go to war on incomplete, weak, and unverified intel.

Insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results.