swine flu outbreak?

DrPizza

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http://www.physorg.com/news171462716.html
September 6th, 2009

Some 2,000 students at Washington State University have reported symptoms of swine flu, university officials said, in one of the largest reported outbreaks of the virus on a US college campus.

Washington state's Whitman County, where the school is located said that tests at a state laboratory late last week "confirmed that the influenza outbreak at Washington State University (WSU)... is indeed caused by the novel 2009 H1N1 Influenza A."

The west-coast school last week instituted a blog to help provide information to students about the sudden and dramatic spread of the A(H1N1) virus on campus just days into the new school term.

"We estimate that we have been in contact with about 2,000 students with influenza-like illness in the first 10 days of our fall semester," the latest online posting said.

"At this time of year, we would typically only see a handful of patients with influenza-like illness. Health care providers in the local community have also seen WSU students with influenza-like illness, but we have no way of knowing how many.

"We also have no way of estimating how many students are self-caring at home without contacting us," school officials said.

University officials said they had been asked by the county health department "to track numbers in this way to give us a better idea of how many students at WSU actually have influenza-like illness."

The university of about 19,000 students added that it is following guidelines issued by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in advising students how to avoid catching and spreading the virus.

CDC's director Thomas Frieden told CNN television Sunday that health officials are reporting an "unusual" number of flu cases so far this school year.

"What we do know is that with schools back in session, particularly in the southeast of the US, but also in many parts of the country, we're seeing a fair amount of influenza. And that's very unusual for this time of the year," he said.

"This is really something we haven't seen before. It's very unusual to see flu continue to occur over the summer. It's very unusual to see it start to increase this rapidly in August and September."

Frieden said efforts to contain the virus may be hampered by layoffs and furloughs of public health workers during the current economic crisis, as well as the inherent unpredictability of any infectious malady.

Swine flu is "the one that we're most concerned about," Frieden said.

"Because if it does become more deadly, it could cause a very severe scenario. It could cause lots of problems for health for people going to school and learning, going to work and earning."

WSU, meanwhile, said it has begun handing out flu self-care kits to students.

"Two hundred of these kits have already been distributed with 1,000 more in process," university officials said, adding that none of the cases of swine flu so far has required hospitalization.

"The overwhelming majority of our patients have had mild symptoms and are usually better in three to five days," the university said.

None of the WSU cases have been fatal. There have been 593 swine flu-related deaths in the United States, however, second only to Brazil which has recorded 657 deaths.

Uh oh. This is bad in a lot of ways. It'll be very bad for any economic recovery we're experiencing right now. I'm hoping the vaccines are available soon.
 

DrPizza

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Originally posted by: miketheidiot
i don't think so, swine flu isn't much worse than normal flu

You're right; most of the time, it's pretty mild. However, it does kill healthy adults, rather than the young/old/immuno-suppressed.

But, as far as being very disruptive, you're overlooking all the hype surrounding the flu. Once it hits communities, people are going to be very paranoid about going out & doing their normal routine.

 
Dec 10, 2005
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Originally posted by: miketheidiot
i don't think so, swine flu isn't much worse than normal flu

In addition to what DrPizza said, you also have many people getting the flu, particularly before flu season begins. There are other effects due to the flu - such as lost productivity.
 

Mr. Lennon

Diamond Member
Jul 2, 2004
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The biggest thing to worry about is this flu mutating into a full fledged pandemic.
 

Locut0s

Lifer
Nov 28, 2001
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Originally posted by: DrPizza
Originally posted by: miketheidiot
i don't think so, swine flu isn't much worse than normal flu

You're right; most of the time, it's pretty mild. However, it does kill healthy adults, rather than the young/old/immuno-suppressed.

But, as far as being very disruptive, you're overlooking all the hype surrounding the flu. Once it hits communities, people are going to be very paranoid about going out & doing their normal routine.

The other thing is that since this is a novel strain absolutely no one is immune to it. Most yearly flu outbreaks are minor variations of the previous pandemic strain of several decades back. That means there is a lot more immunity in the general population. Since no one has immunity to H1N1 a lot more people are going to become infected with it. That in and itself will bring down productivity. Even if it has the same mortality rate as the yearly flu it's going to kill a lot more people simply because its infected base is so much larger. People aren't rational, when they see that 10 thousand people have died they aren't going to look at the stats and say to themselves "oh right that's still a 0.5% mortality rate". So joe average out there is much more likely to panic when he sees these numbers. Combine the number who are ill and can't work with those who are panicking because they are too stupid to understand stats and yes it could be bad for the economy.
 

Tequila

Senior member
Oct 24, 1999
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*yawn*

The vaccine that will be ready in October won't help you against a sudden deadly mutation. It will protect you from a flu that has a 99% survival rate.

I'm really not looking forward to the daily hype from the media. Going to be a long winter.

Oh and as someone who lived through the '76 swine flu scare, I won't touch any 2009 vaccine and in fact haven't had a flu vaccine in over 20 years.
 

Locut0s

Lifer
Nov 28, 2001
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Originally posted by: Tequila
*yawn*

The vaccine that will be ready in October won't help you against a sudden deadly mutation. It will protect you from a flu that has a 99% survival rate.

I'm really not looking forward to the daily hype from the media. Going to be a long winter.

Oh and as someone who lived through the '76 swine flu scare, I won't touch any 2009 vaccine and in fact haven't had a flu vaccine in over 20 years.

The economic impact is something legitimate to look at. Like I and Dr.Pizza said many more people will be sick (not dying) from this than a normal flu. This + panic from people who don't understand facts could lead to some bad numbers.
 

Wheezer

Diamond Member
Nov 2, 1999
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there were 11,773 alcohol-related crash deaths in 2008, why the hell is swine flu such a big deal?

 

JSt0rm

Lifer
Sep 5, 2000
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Originally posted by: Locut0s
The economic impact is something legitimate to look at. Like I and Dr.Pizza said many more people will be sick (not dying) from this than a normal flu. This + panic from people who don't understand facts could lead to some bad numbers.

and?
 

Acanthus

Lifer
Aug 28, 2001
19,915
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Media overhype.

They've gone from obscure diseases with mortality rates that don't infect anyone to a common disease that doesn't kill anyone.

I just wish some newsworthy shit would happen so they would shut the fuck up about swine flu.

2,000,000+ infected already. Less than 10,000 deaths. <0.005% mortality rate.
 
Jun 27, 2005
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Those poor bastards... there's only a 99.9995% chance that they'll survive this calamity.

Swine Flu is the biggest bullshit global government 'we're here to save you' episode ever.
 

StageLeft

No Lifer
Sep 29, 2000
70,150
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Originally posted by: DrPizza
Originally posted by: miketheidiot
i don't think so, swine flu isn't much worse than normal flu

You're right; most of the time, it's pretty mild. However, it does kill healthy adults, rather than the young/old/immuno-suppressed.

But, as far as being very disruptive, you're overlooking all the hype surrounding the flu. Once it hits communities, people are going to be very paranoid about going out & doing their normal routine.
Possibly but also possibly people will realize how over-hyped this thing has been afterall. Its fatality rate is extremely low. The impressions we had initially from the media were that if you had it you should rush to get your will updated because you were dead. Now we know that the fatality rate is miniscule, just like with the normal flu (albeit so many get that one that in the end it ends up killing tens of thousands year ;)).

 

Locut0s

Lifer
Nov 28, 2001
22,205
43
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Originally posted by: Skoorb
Originally posted by: DrPizza
Originally posted by: miketheidiot
i don't think so, swine flu isn't much worse than normal flu

You're right; most of the time, it's pretty mild. However, it does kill healthy adults, rather than the young/old/immuno-suppressed.

But, as far as being very disruptive, you're overlooking all the hype surrounding the flu. Once it hits communities, people are going to be very paranoid about going out & doing their normal routine.
Possibly but also possibly people will realize how over-hyped this thing has been afterall. Its fatality rate is extremely low. The impressions we had initially from the media were that if you had it you should rush to get your will updated because you were dead. Now we know that the fatality rate is miniscule, just like with the normal flu (albeit so many get that one that in the end it ends up killing tens of thousands year ;)).

Are we talking about the same people and the same media here? There is no doubt in my mind that the media will hype this up for the ratings. And as for the people it seems to me that most nowadays would actually believe it if CNN told them that Elvis had come back as a zombie.
 

Schadenfroh

Elite Member
Mar 8, 2003
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Hopefully the vaccine will be ready soon enough. I hate the regular flu and I do not want to miss any classes or work because of either flu. I have not had a severe case of flu since the 5th grade, but it was rough (103+ degree fever at points and was out of school for two weeks). The time before that was when I was a toddler and had to be hospitalized. Obviously, my adult immune system should be able to handle it a bit better. I still get vaccinated against the regular flu every year.

Originally posted by: jpeyton
OH NOOOOOOOOOOES!!!

:laugh:
 

Jaskalas

Lifer
Jun 23, 2004
35,497
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Originally posted by: DrPizza
Originally posted by: miketheidiot
i don't think so, swine flu isn't much worse than normal flu

You're right; most of the time, it's pretty mild. However, it does kill healthy adults, rather than the young/old/immuno-suppressed.

But, as far as being very disruptive, you're overlooking all the hype surrounding the flu. Once it hits communities, people are going to be very paranoid about going out & doing their normal routine.

Thanks to the media.
 

Jaskalas

Lifer
Jun 23, 2004
35,497
9,718
136
Originally posted by: Whoozyerdaddy
Those poor bastards... there's only a 99.9995% chance that they'll survive this calamity.

Swine Flu is the biggest bullshit global government 'we're here to save you' episode ever.

Didn't you know, you'd better force them to pass UHC or we're all gonna die!!! Thanks swine flu!
 

txrandom

Diamond Member
Aug 15, 2004
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Originally posted by: Wheezer
there were 11,773 alcohol-related crash deaths in 2008, why the hell is swine flu such a big deal?

We need an alcohol vaccine!
 

DrPizza

Administrator Elite Member Goat Whisperer
Mar 5, 2001
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I'm amazed that because some of you hate the media hype, you cease being able to think rationally. You do NOT have any immunity to the swine flu. If you understood how viruses are spread, the rate of transmission depends a lot on the percent of the population who is immune (either by having it in the past, else by vaccination). Do you get the flu every single year? No? Well, if that vaccine isn't out before the shit hits the fan, then your odds of getting the flu are MUCH higher than they've been in any year in the past.

You'll get the flu. But, you'll live. And, that's where you think the media hype has been unfairly directed - pointing out how many will die.

How many will die is beside the point of this thread - if a lot of people aren't vaccinated (the only way to become immune to this strain, other than catch the flu) - a lot of people are going to get the flu this year. Far far more than in previous years. And people aren't going to want you at work if you're sick - they don't want to catch it too. If it starts spreading fast, before the vaccine is out, it's going to have a major impact on production.

Plus, I'm inclined to believe that a lot of sick people WILL go to work - people who work in service industry jobs who don't get any sick time, i.e. employees at fast food restaurants, etc. Good luck avoiding the flu!
 

DrPizza

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Originally posted by: Jaskalas
Originally posted by: DrPizza
Good luck avoiding the flu!

There was no avoiding it to begin with.

So, you're saying *everyone* is going to get the flu? Wow, that will have an even larger effect on the economy! Look at it this way - 2000 out of 20,000 students are now not in class. That's 10%. How many of you work at places where if 10% of the workforce were out sick, simultaneously & without prior notice, for a week, that it wouldn't cause a large disruption?


fwiw, current estimates are around 50% of the population will get this flu. That's a big impact on productivity.
 

DrPizza

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Mar 5, 2001
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Originally posted by: Jaskalas
Originally posted by: Whoozyerdaddy
Those poor bastards... there's only a 99.9995% chance that they'll survive this calamity.

Swine Flu is the biggest bullshit global government 'we're here to save you' episode ever.

Didn't you know, you'd better force them to pass UHC or we're all gonna die!!! Thanks swine flu!

Also, I've read your posts before. Is your thinking really that shallow that you can't pause 10 seconds to read a thread and understand the premise of the thread - that this will have a big impact on productivity at the time the U.S. is showing signs of economic recovery? Do you always just look at 2 or 3 key words and automatically type your response?

I never denied that the media is over-hyping the "lots of people will die" thing. Whatever gave you the idea that that is what this thread was about? Comprehension ftl.