Surprising new state polls from CNN/Time

[Stoneburner]

Florida: Obama 48, McCain 48
Indiana: McCain 51, Obama 45
North Carolina: McCain 48, Obama 47
Ohio: Obama 49, McCain 47
Wisconsin: Obama 50, McCain 47

Here's the link:

http://thepage.time.com/

The polling took place between sept 14-16, around the time there was some movement towards Obama nationally.

FLorida a tie and obama leading in Ohio is a surprise. Wisconsin being so close is also a shock.

I'm not so sure how good these polls are. Almost all these results are outliers, but these are also polls conducted during the shift in momentum. I suspect other polls will show most of these result are off. I mean, NC was plus 15 or so in a few polls last week. Ohio has been consistently plus for McCain since the convention.

 

[lupi]

are they as surprising as yesterdays?

 

[jpeyton]

In case anyone is curious, here is the reason.

 

[Stoneburner]

Originally posted by: lupi
are they as surprising as yesterdays?

I don't know. Virginia jumping back into contention was a surprise BUT it is believable. I have a hard time believing that FL, OH, and NC are really where this poll says they are.

I would say these polls are more surprising. I also don't quite trust these numbers. the VA plus 4 poll was backed up by a plus 2 by PPP (very good pollser) and another showing a tie (ras i think)

 

[nageov3t]

is it worth discussing random polls when they're going to change in 2 hours?

 

[nakedfrog]

I still want to see a poll for the one congressional district in Nebraska that might actually go to Obama.

 

[lupi]

Originally posted by: Stoneburner

Originally posted by: lupi
are they as surprising as yesterdays?

I don't know. Virginia jumping back into contention was a surprise BUT it is believable. I have a hard time believing that FL, OH, and NC are really where this poll says they are.

I would say these polls are more surprising. I also don't quite trust these numbers. the VA plus 4 poll was backed up by a plus 2 by PPP (very good pollser) and another showing a tie (ras i think)

Florida: McCain vs. Obama
Polling Data
Poll Date Sample McCain (R) Obama (D) Spread
RCP Average 09/05 - 09/16 -- 49.4 44.4 McCain +5.0
CNN/Time 09/14 - 09/16 907 RV 48 48 Tie
FOX News/Rasmussen 09/14 - 09/14 500 LV 49 44 McCain +5
InAdv/PollPosition 09/10 - 09/10 511 LV 50 42 McCain +8
Quinnipiac 09/05 - 09/09 1032 LV 50 43 McCain +7
PPP (D) 09/06 - 09/07 986 LV 50 45 McCain +5


Michigan: McCain vs. Obama
Polling Data
Poll Date Sample Obama (D) McCain (R) Spread
RCP Average 09/05 - 09/10 -- 47.2 45.2 Obama +2.0
InAdv/PollPosition 09/10 - 09/10 503 LV 44 45 McCain +1
Rasmussen 09/10 - 09/10 700 LV 51 46 Obama +5
CNN/Time 09/07 - 09/09 966 RV 49 45 Obama +4
Strategic Vision (R) 09/05 - 09/07 1200 LV 45 44 Obama +1
PPP (D) 09/06 - 09/07 1147 LV 47 46 Obama +1


Colorado: McCain vs. Obama
Polling Data
Poll Date Sample Obama (D) McCain (R) Spread
RCP Average 09/07 - 09/14 -- 47.3 46.7 Obama +0.6
FOX News/Rasmussen 09/14 - 09/14 500 LV 46 48 McCain +2
InAdv/PollPosition 09/10 - 09/10 501 LV 49 46 Obama +3
PPP (D) 09/07 - 09/09 1078 LV 47 46 Obama +1




Ohio: McCain vs. Obama
Polling Data
Poll Date Sample McCain (R) Obama (D) Spread
RCP Average 09/05 - 09/14 -- 47.3 45.4 McCain +1.9
CNN/Time 09/13 - 09/14 913 RV 47 49 Obama +2
PPP (D) 09/13 - 09/14 1077 LV 48 44 McCain +4
FOX News/Rasmussen 09/14 - 09/14 500 LV 48 45 McCain +3
SurveyUSA 09/12 - 09/14 692 LV 49 45 McCain +4
Suffolk University 09/10 - 09/13 600 LV 46 42 McCain +4
InAdv/PollPosition 09/10 - 09/10 500 LV 48 47 McCain +1
Univ. of Cinci 09/05 - 09/10 775 LV 48 44 McCain +4
Strategic Vision (R) 09/07 - 09/09 1200 LV 48 44 McCain +4
Quinnipiac 09/05 - 09/09 1367 LV 44 49 Obama +5


North Carolina: McCain vs. Obama
Polling Data
Poll Date Sample McCain (R) Obama (D) Spread
RCP Average 09/06 - 09/14 -- 51.2 42.2 McCain +9.0
CNN/Time 09/13 - 09/14 910 RV 48 47 McCain +1
Research 2000 09/08 - 09/10 600 LV 55 38 McCain +17
Civitas/TelOpinion (R) 09/06 - 09/10 600 LV 47 44 McCain +3
PPP (D) 09/09 - 09/09 626 LV 48 44 McCain +4
SurveyUSA 09/06 - 09/08 671 LV 58 38 McCain +20

Virginia: McCain vs. Obama
Polling Data
Poll Date Sample McCain (R) Obama (D) Spread
RCP Average 09/07 - 09/14 -- 47.6 46.2 McCain +1.4
PPP (D) 09/13 - 09/14 1090 LV 46 48 Obama +2
CNU Virginia Poll 09/10 - 09/14 500 RV 48 39 McCain +9
FOX News/Rasmussen 09/14 - 09/14 500 LV 48 48 Tie
SurveyUSA 09/12 - 09/14 732 LV 46 50 Obama +4
CNN/Time 09/07 - 09/09 920 RV 50 46 McCain +4



Pennsylvania: McCain vs. Obama
Polling Data
Poll Date Sample Obama (D) McCain (R) Spread
RCP Average 09/05 - 09/14 -- 47.3 45.7 Obama +1.6
FOX News/Rasmussen 09/14 - 09/14 500 LV 47 47 Tie
Quinnipiac 09/05 - 09/09 1001 LV 48 45 Obama +3
Strategic Vision (R) 09/05 - 09/07 1200 LV 47 45 Obama +2

 

[Stoneburner]

Originally posted by: nakedfrog
I still want to see a poll for the one congressional district in Nebraska that might actually go to Obama.

Last I saw, those were still longshots

And Loki, who cares? We're just looking at trends to get as complete a picture as we can. I don't want to pull a ProfJohn and just post polls when they favor one candidate. I think polls, especially state polls, are good tools when their limitations are understood.

 

[Robor]

FL isn't going Obama. Too many rednecks and old white people who aren't fond of those outside their race. And yeah, I live there.

Edit: I'm trying to 'reverse jinx' too

 

[Stoneburner]

Originally posted by: Robor
FL isn't going Obama. Too many rednecks and old white people who aren't fond of those outside their race. And yeah, I live there.

Edit: I'm trying to 'reverse jinx' too

I thought the Palin v. Biden dyamic may help a bit in FL but it doesn't appear it will. VP's just don't make a difference in the longrun.

But, some people have wisely suggested Obama hammer McCain for advocating privatizing SS in FL. Has he run such ads?

 

[Robor]

Originally posted by: Stoneburner

Originally posted by: Robor
FL isn't going Obama. Too many rednecks and old white people who aren't fond of those outside their race. And yeah, I live there.

Edit: I'm trying to 'reverse jinx' too

I thought the Palin v. Biden dyamic may help a bit in FL but it doesn't appear it will. VP's just don't make a difference in the longrun.

But, some people have wisely suggested Obama hammer McCain for advocating privatizing SS in FL. Has he run such ads?

I have not seen any Obama ads focused on SS. In fact, I haven't seen many Obama ads at all but I usually skip commercials with the DVR.