Stunt's Amazing Stock Picks - All 3 picks up over 20% in 11 weeks!!

[Stunt]

Most Democrats here seem bearish on the markets due to their distrust in the current administration and state of the economy.

Most Republicans are bullish on the markets, and see lots of potential for investing at the moment.

Well I'd like to post my picks for both sides, as all the picks are in Canada (less effect from US economy, but at the same time benifit in the best of times).

Without further adieu, here are my top picks, with current valuations. I will be tracking the stocks over time, so mark my words! (Prices in CAN$ as of June 16, 2005)
1) Penn West ($29.03/share, $3.12 annual dividend)
2) Petro-Canada ($78.40/share, $0.60 annual dividend)
3) Encana ($50.00/share, $0.37 annual dividend)

For those weary about investing fully in the energy sector, I will recommend two others, although not as attractive as the three above.
1) Shopper's Drug Mart ($41.50/share, $0.40 annual dividend)
2) Canadian Tire ($57.89/share, $0.58 annual dividend)

Keep in mind these are meant to be long term investments and all companies include a very attractive dividend. Cash flow and stock upswing potential, what more could you ask for.

Cheers, and I will be updating the progress on these shares over time, on P&N if the thread is still around, and most definately on my blog.
[/quote]
*UPDATE*
Since 8 weeks ago:
(Prices in CAN$ as of July 26, 2005)
1) Penn West ($33.35/share, $3.12 annual dividend) UP 14.9%
2) Petro-Canada ($95.36/share, $0.60 annual dividend) UP 21.6%
3) Encana ($52.60/share, $0.37 annual dividend) UP 5.2%

Optional:
1) Shopper's Drug Mart ($40.80/share, $0.40 annual dividend) DOWN 1.7%
2) Canadian Tire ($58.50/share, $0.58 annual dividend) UP 1.1%
*Note these are for stable dividends and long term growth/diversification*

My energy fund is up over 77% since buying in August 2004.

Did anybody actually take my recommendations?!
I'm too poor to invest at the moment...but these returns are not too shabby for 2 months!
[/quote]
*UPDATE*

I have a few stocks I want to put up here as recommendations, they are not oil related and have dropped enough recently to make them good entry points.

7-11 ($30.21)
ATI Technologies ($14.29)
Canadian Tire ($57.70)
Duke Energy ($28.24)
Loblaws ($69.70)
March Networks ($17.05)
Shoppers Drug Mart ($40.59)
[/quote]
*UPDATE* (Aug 15, 2005)

My Investing Strategy:

This guy here explains the premise of the strategy. Key points are:

Consider the Dow30 ("Blue Chips"), invest in the 10 companies with the highest dividend yield (dividing the dividend by the current stock price), meaning they are under performing the rest of these staple american companies, yet still pay a decent dividend. These companies are less prone to recession downside, cover most sectors, and are unlikely to have large fluctuations in revenues. Every year rotate the investment to the next 10 highest dividend yield (basically keep buying low, year after year). 10 Dogs of the Dow

This model is good as it takes the emotion out of investing, all the companies are respectable, less risky, produces good dividends and upside potential.

Now, being canadian, I was hoping to keep most of my money domestic; therefore not everything will go into these american bluechips. I did my own analysis with the same considerations, but with canadian companies.

I took the TSX60 (elite stocks similar to the Dow30) and reseached the dividend yields of all the companies. What resulted was the companies I was considering investing in were considered good values and others that I didn't think of were brought to my attention. These stocks were: The 5 major canadian banks, bce, dofasco, enbridge, domtar, sun life, thompson, transalta, and transcanada. (yield of 2%+) Alcan, bombardier, CN, CP, loblaws, manulife, shaw, teck cominco, telus. (yield of 1%+).

Therefore I am going to recommend: TD, Scotiabank, Dofasco, Enbridge, Sun Life, Thompson, TransAlta, TransCanada, Alcan, Loblaws, CP, Teck Cominco, Shaw.

I would hold PennWest and PetroCan, but Encana is still a buy, along with Canadian Tire and Shoppers Drug Mart.
[/quote]
*UPDATE*
Since 11 weeks ago:
(Prices in CAN$ as of Sept 1, 2005)
1) Penn West ($34.88/share, $3.12 annual dividend) UP 20.1%
2) Petro-Canada ($49.50/share (stock split), $0.60 annual dividend) UP 26.3%
3) Encana ($60.70/share, $0.37 annual dividend) UP 21.4%

 

[Genx87]

I am definately not bullish on the market. Until this housing market cools off I dont think the markets will move much. Especially since the feds keep upping teh interest rates.

 

[Stunt]

Originally posted by: Genx87
I am definately not bullish on the market. Until this housing market cools off I dont think the markets will move much. Especially since the feds keep upping teh interest rates.

Even more reason to transfer some of your holdings to Canadian energy companies. Unlike the US oil giants, our companies are very much undervalued and have lots of potential considering reserves and increasing production.

 

[sandorski]

I don't think Petro-Canada is a good choice. It wins on one end(Oil Extraction), but loses on the other(Retail Distribution). Syncrude(if Publicly traded) or Suncor are much better picks, or just about any Oil Sands related Co is a good bet. IIRC Talisman is another good Energy pick.

 

[Stunt]

To compare the companies i have mentioned, I've looked up similar companies in the US.
I compared Petro-Can to Imperial as they are similarly positioned, and Canadian Tire to Walmart. Canadian Tire competes here with Walmart and is actually doing well against them, everyone has been betting against them, but they keep hammering out great results and continue to grow with little to no effect from the large american retailer.

Petro-Canada:
Revenue: $14.4B
Profit: $1.4B
EPS: $5.16
Dividends: $0.60
P/E: $12.20

Imperial Oil: (US$)
Revenue: $22B
Profit: $1.9B
EPS: $5.44
Dividends: $0.88
P/E: $18.30

Canadian Tire:
Revenue: $7.3B
Profit: $0.3B
EPS: $3.55
Dividends: $0.58
P/E: $16.50

Walmart: (US$)
Revenue: $294B
Profit: $10.5B
EPS: $2.49
Dividends: $0.60
P/E: $19.80

So, much better EPS and P/E than American blue chip stocks. Worth asking your advisor.

 

[Stunt]

Originally posted by: sandorski
I don't think Petro-Canada is a good choice. It wins on one end(Oil Extraction), but loses on the other(Retail Distribution). Syncrude(if Publicly traded) or Suncor are much better picks, or just about any Oil Sands related Co is a good bet. IIRC Talisman is another good Energy pick.

Talisman and Suncor are good picks too, I think Petro has better long term prospects due to reserves and positioning. I don't think they loose too much on the distrobution, check out the financial numbers...

I wish i had more money to invest
Being unemployed blows.

 

[Martin]

And here is Martin's pick: forget stocks, trade forex

 

[sandorski]

Originally posted by: Martin
And here is Martin's pick: forget stocks, trade forex

forex is Money Markets, isn't it? If so, I understand that's rather risky for us chumps(assuming all of us are ). If it's Foreign Markets then that's different, though quite risky.

I'll likely never have enough $$ to Trade Stocks/Bonds/etc directly. For me Mutual Funds is where my $$ will go.

That said, Canadian Markets are really hot right now and there are many under valued stocks compared to other Markets.

 

[ntdz]

How about some American stocks? I'd rather invest domestically. Microsoft might be a good one to buy right now with their imminent release of xbox 360 and the new windows next year, could be a very good long term stock.

 

[CaptnKirk]

Iraqi War Bonds ?

 

[Martin]

Originally posted by: sandorski

Originally posted by: Martin
And here is Martin's pick: forget stocks, trade forex

forex is Money Markets, isn't it? If so, I understand that's rather risky for us chumps(assuming all of us are ). If it's Foreign Markets then that's different, though quite risky.

I'll likely never have enough $$ to Trade Stocks/Bonds/etc directly. For me Mutual Funds is where my $$ will go.

That said, Canadian Markets are really hot right now and there are many under valued stocks compared to other Markets.

foreign exchange, aye. And yeah, quite risky, but if you're good the money you can make is quite simply mind-boggling.

Too bad I am not good, I'm still working on that part

 

[TuxDave]

Ya'll missed out on the buttkicking performance that Intel did so far this year....

 

[sandorski]

Originally posted by: Martin

Originally posted by: sandorski

Originally posted by: Martin
And here is Martin's pick: forget stocks, trade forex

forex is Money Markets, isn't it? If so, I understand that's rather risky for us chumps(assuming all of us are ). If it's Foreign Markets then that's different, though quite risky.

I'll likely never have enough $$ to Trade Stocks/Bonds/etc directly. For me Mutual Funds is where my $$ will go.

That said, Canadian Markets are really hot right now and there are many under valued stocks compared to other Markets.

foreign exchange, aye. And yeah, quite risky, but if you're good the money you can make is quite simply mind-boggling.

Too bad I am not good, I'm still working on that part

Central/South American Markets seem to have some real wild swings that could give great returns. However, in my investigating of Mutual Funds, for every year of great returns(30%+) is another year of equal losses. Longterm most of the funds I saw had practically 0% growth. Definitely something you would need to rigidly get out of after a predetermined gain.

I think a good strategy might be to just pick a reasonable Gain of say 10%(depends on trade fees, taxes, and other costs). Once the 10%(or other chosen gain) is acheived, Sell and collect the Profit. Do this even if you or analysts think much higher gains are likely. I just picked 10% because it's a nice round number and that it is a very good return at this time. Of course, as I put in brackets, it really depends on what amount you have invested in each stock, what the trading fees are, Capitol gains, and anything else you might need to pay.

 

[sandorski]

Originally posted by: TuxDave
Ya'll missed out on the buttkicking performance that Intel did so far this year....

Being a computer geek and somewhat AMD fan, I always am somewhat leery of Intel stock. One day Intel's mistakes are going to catch up with them, IMO. That said, until AMD can Supply the Market significantly, Intel's house of cards will continue to stand.

 

[Zebo]

Originally posted by: CaptnKirk
Iraqi War Bonds ?

Here ya go http://betoniraq.com/

 

[Stunt]

Originally posted by: Zebo

Originally posted by: CaptnKirk
Iraqi War Bonds ?

Here ya go http://betoniraq.com/

Haha, that's awesome.

 

[CaptnKirk]

Originally posted by: Zebo

Originally posted by: CaptnKirk
Iraqi War Bonds ?

Here ya go http://betoniraq.com/

Look how Ameracanized they've become . . .

already copied the Saint Louis Arch . .

 

[rahvin]

Eeek! Invest in the Toronto Thief Exchange? I think not.

 

[Miramonti]

Buy the high caps and sell the small caps.

 

[DealMonkey]

Originally posted by: Genx87
I am definately not bullish on the market. Until this housing market cools off I dont think the markets will move much. Especially since the feds keep upping teh interest rates.

You probably haven't been paying attention to what's going on lately. I'm actually in the process of selling my current place and buying a new one. Interest rates are lower (think 5.73%) than they were at the same time last year ('04). The fed keeps pushing, but the mortgage rates haven't budged and lately they've been dipping significantly.

There's actually a refinancing boom at the moment, so that's a big indicater that rates are quite low.

Furthermore, some economists have been blathering about the so-called "housing bubble" for I don't know how long now. Yes, very specific markets are frothy and speculators are making it worse (think SF Bay Area/Los Angeles, Manhattan), but overall housing appreciation in this country has been steady but not exuberent.

 

[glenn1]

How about some American stocks?

Ask and ye shall receive. Here's my official Glenn1 all-star/all-weather stock portfolio:

Financial: Commerce Bankcorp (CBH)
Consumer Cyclicals: Trex Co. (TWP)
Consumer Durables: Fortune Brands (FO)
Consumer Staples: PepsiCo (PEP)
Energy: Headwaters (HW)
Technology: Automatic Data Processing (ADP)
Telecommunications: Texas Instruments (TXN)
Internet: theknot.com (KNOT)
Healthcare: Dade-Behring (DADE)
Basic Materials: RPM International (RPM)
Defense: Curtiss-Wright (CW)
Utilities: Pepco Holdings (PHI)

 

[Stunt]

Originally posted by: rahvin
Eeek! Invest in the Toronto Thief Exchange? I think not.

What is wrong with the TSX?!

Originally posted by: jjsole
Buy the high caps and sell the small caps.

These are all large caps.

 

[Stunt]

Originally posted by: glenn1

How about some American stocks?

Ask and ye shall receive. Here's my official Glenn1 all-star/all-weather stock portfolio:

Financial: Commerce Bankcorp (CBH)
Consumer Cyclicals: Trex Co. (TWP)
Consumer Durables: Fortune Brands (FO)
Consumer Staples: PepsiCo (PEP)
Energy: Headwaters (HW)
Technology: Automatic Data Processing (ADP)
Telecommunications: Texas Instruments (TXN)
Internet: theknot.com (KNOT)
Healthcare: Dade-Behring (DADE)
Basic Materials: RPM International (RPM)
Defense: Curtiss-Wright (CW)
Utilities: Pepco Holdings (PHI)

I would stick to energy, metals and consumer goods.
Tech, Defense, Finance have peaked imo.

 

[Stunt]

*UPDATE*
Since 3 weeks ago:
(Prices in CAN$ as of July 6, 2005)
1) Penn West ($29.42/share, $3.12 annual dividend) UP 1.3%
2) Petro-Canada ($83.10/share, $0.60 annual dividend) UP 6.0%
3) Encana ($52.17/share, $0.37 annual dividend) UP 4.3%

Optional:
1) Shopper's Drug Mart ($41.27/share, $0.40 annual dividend) DOWN 0.5%
2) Canadian Tire ($57.38/share, $0.58 annual dividend) DOWN 0.9%
*Note these are for stable dividends and long term growth/diversification*

PS. My energy fund is up 62.4% since buying in August 2004.

 

[sandorski]

Originally posted by: Stunt
*UPDATE*
Since 3 weeks ago:
(Prices in CAN$ as of July 6, 2005)
1) Penn West ($29.42/share, $3.12 annual dividend) UP 1.3%
2) Petro-Canada ($83.10/share, $0.60 annual dividend) UP 6.0%
3) Encana ($52.17/share, $0.37 annual dividend) UP 4.3%

Optional:
1) Shopper's Drug Mart ($41.27/share, $0.40 annual dividend) DOWN 0.5%
2) Canadian Tire ($57.38/share, $0.58 annual dividend) DOWN 0.9%
*Note these are for stable dividends and long term growth/diversification*

PS. My energy fund is up 62.4% since buying in August 2004.

Wish I had an Energy fund. Those things are crazy!