Ichinisan
Lifer
- Oct 9, 2002
- 28,298
- 1,235
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Commercials are meant to fit into 10 or 30 second spots. Tivo nailed commercial skipping 15 years ago by having a 30 second skip button, we don't need a more complicated model. Problem is advertisers freaked out about how easily Tivo destroyed their entire business model, so it turned into a hidden feature:
http://bigmarv.net/how/tivo/tivo-30-second-skip.html
Fast forwarding through commercials is a compromise, you still watch the ad but faster. It also gives the advertisers a CHANCE to get you to watch, like when you see an explosion or celebrity you like in their ad. Or you forget to fast forward because you are distracted, I don't know about you but I feel like they "win" when I accidently watch a DVRed ad.
At some level DVRs have undone the traditional industry business model even without perfect commercial skipping, but not everyone has the talent/content of a HBO or Netflix to move to a new model where the content is SO worthwhile you are willing to deal with a paywall to get at it. Most network television devolved into something you watch when its on back in the 90's, so the entire binge watching craze driven by these new models is something they aren't equipped to handle. Instead the major networks have focused on the only content that is "DVR-proof," like live tv. The cost of rights fees for major sports have skyrocketed since the invention of the DVR, and talent competitions have boomed in a way Ed McMahon would have never dreamed.
The problem is that this type of content (and reality TV) digs the hole even deeper for networks, because unlike all those DVR-killed 90's sitcoms this content isn't worth ANYTHING on syndication/Netflix. Once the next-day water-cooler value is used up and the winner is declared there is nothing left to monetize, while non-major network providers who create serialized cult content on smaller budgets have a guaranteed future revenue stream. You would think the massive sales of DVDs or Netflix rights fees would wake the networks up to this reality, but the truth is many of them sold off their back catalogs years ago for minimal value and therefore they don't have that former success to fall back on.
The end result is a child born in 2015 will probably know what Netflix is before they know what CBS is.
It's all so familiar though. That's how the first cable TV networks started. Subscription TV service was basically a paywall to high-quality commercial-free content. Now, the only channels that remain that way are "premium" networks (HBO, Starz, etc). Most cable networks try to maximize revenue with per-subscriber fees *and* as many commercials as their viewers will tolerate. Movies are severely edited...not just to censor content, but also to make time for more commercials. Specialized networks gradually start showing content that is less specialized until they're all playing "reality" shows that have absolutely nothing to do with the network's specialty (Discovery and History Channel, I'm looking at you). Why does IFC (Independent Film Channel) show big-budget blockbusters and even original series (even a reality show: "Whisker Wars" -- about competitive beard growing). Generally, IFC seems to care about their movie content. They claim they don't edit movies for time and content. Well, what's this? Even the exceptional "AMC original series" is a contradiction ("American Movie Classics"). Why did AMC decide to de-specialize and start making original series? Can the shows go on another, more appropriate, network under the same owner? The last episode of Better Call Saul was had parts that were crudely censored...even though it airs after 10:00 PM. I notice movies coming on at midnight that were blatantly censored! What's going on, AMC?!
Watching basic / expanded cable is just an *awful* experience. HBO and Netflix give us a taste of what cable TV was like in the early days. I wonder how long it will be before they start experimenting to see how many ads we will tolerate... If history is any indication, it may be only a matter of time.
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