Stock Market - A Fed created bubble

[woolfe9999]

I had all of my 401K in Fidelity mutual funds until summer of 2008. I pulled 90% of it out and put it into bond funds because of what I was reading in the financial pages at that time. I put it all back in around January of this year. Didn't quite time it perfectly as it continued to erode for a couple of months. All in all, I did extremely well. I will probably pull most of it all out when the DJIA hits 11,000, or possiblty before that.

Somehow I doubt I will ever get that lucky again with timing.

- wolf

 

[piasabird]

Deletexxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

[halik]

Speaking of leading indicators is the VIX a good one? I mean with it apparently very low now like it was a couple of years ago I wonder what it says.

I realize that NOTHING is a good leading indicator by everybody's standards or else it no longer would be.

Wiki says VIX has an R2 of ~.60
It's about as predictive as historical volatility ( according to some dude's blog...)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VIX

 

[StageLeft]

I had all of my 401K in Fidelity mutual funds until summer of 2008. I pulled 90% of it out and put it into bond funds because of what I was reading in the financial pages at that time. I put it all back in around January of this year. Didn't quite time it perfectly as it continued to erode for a couple of months. All in all, I did extremely well. I will probably pull most of it all out when the DJIA hits 11,000, or possiblty before that.

Somehow I doubt I will ever get that lucky again with timing.

- wolf

Probably not so you should be careful trying something like it again. For example if you pull at 11k when will you go back in? What if it just continues up and never falls below 11k again?

 

[ahurtt]

Speaking of leading indicators is the VIX a good one? I mean with it apparently very low now like it was a couple of years ago I wonder what it says.

I realize that NOTHING is a good leading indicator by everybody's standards or else it no longer would be.

The average VIX from Jan. 1990 - Aug. 2008 is about 19.3. So with that figure in mind it's currently about in line. . .maybe slightly lower. . .than historical averages before the crash in 2008. If you see it get about about 22, you might start paying closer attention.

 

[juiio]

If you are managing a bank which was not about to go under, where would you put the 10s of billions the government required you to take?


Buy T-bills and pocket the 3-4 % return you are going to get????

http://www.treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/press/preanre/2010/R_20100111_1.pdf

91-day T-Bills auctioned off at 0.041%.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/24-billion-91-day-bills-auctioned-0041-window-dressing-theory-fail

New year window dressing was responsible for the micro yields on bill auctions pre-New Year. Or so the theory went. So why did we just have another effectively zero bill auction? And no, the Lehman scramble for risk-free parallel is oh so very inappropriate here - after all funds have to window dress their Dec. 31 2010 results... Granted, a little early. So we ask, again, who is buying stocks when real money is willing to accept zero returns to park their cash in "risk-free" equivalents. Liberty 33 - once again, the podium is all yours.

 

[woolfe9999]

Probably not so you should be careful trying something like it again. For example if you pull at 11k when will you go back in? What if it just continues up and never falls below 11k again?

You're right, I will never try it again. I do this and get lucky once, then I'm done, as no one can really time the market right consistently.

I'm gonna get out of the market and into a bond fund because my wife has a much bigger 401k than me and she insists on leaving it all in the market for the long term. So for me putting it all in a bond fund is a hedge against the volatility of her 401k.

- wolf

 

[Zebo]

Nothing wrong with sticking with what you know. I don't know the first thing about owning a gas well. Your knowledge of dividend paying stocks is incredibly naive especially your lack of understanding current yield vs effective yield. The true power comes from reinvested dividends especially in an IRA/401k rollover. If you bought JNJ today your current yield is 3.1%. If you bought 20 years ago, reinvesting the dividends during that time gives you an effective yield of 50%. That means I could turn off the drip and just collect the dividends and make a decent income but I don't plan on doing that for another 20 years. It's even better for my Chevron shares.

JNJ has never missed a dividend and consistently grows them at 10% a year. They are a cash machine and have an ROE of 27%. They are big pharma but well diversified in medical devices and consumer products. That's why I sleep well at night no matter what the market is doing. Big and boring is very exciting for those who have the patience.

I bet. You do a lot better than my annuity from when I worked small potatoes because I only worked for 5 years but it had about 50K in it in 02' when I quit still has about that. I listen to buffet and he has a similar view about buying solid companies and if I were to invest that's probably what I'd do to. I like cash flow though, control and business expenses and the only place I want to be in the market is president of a new IPO.

 

[Nemesis 1]

Well fund managers have to be watched. more regulation is a must.

Here is example I will use This is intolerable. I personally am close to this fund as its were my wifes 401K money is .

At the end of the last Qt. July aug sept. the share price was. 36 and change. At the end of the dec . qt The share price was 42 and change . Look at what they claim as the qt gain the numbers don't match. I am all over this and have turned in your statements for those Qt . The governing body agrees its smells to high heaven.

https://ww3.janus.com/advisor/mutual-funds/fund-detail/rating/janus-overseas-fund-343

 

[Nemesis 1]

I had all of my 401K in Fidelity mutual funds until summer of 2008. I pulled 90% of it out and put it into bond funds because of what I was reading in the financial pages at that time. I put it all back in around January of this year. Didn't quite time it perfectly as it continued to erode for a couple of months. All in all, I did extremely well. I will probably pull most of it all out when the DJIA hits 11,000, or possiblty before that.

Somehow I doubt I will ever get that lucky again with timing.

- wolf

Well your target for jumping out should be 13500- 14000 I will stick to 15500

 

[Zebo]

Well fund managers have to be watched. more regulation is a must.

Here is example I will use This is intolerable. I personally am close to this fund as its were my wifes 401K money is .

At the end of the last Qt. July aug sept. the share price was. 36 and change. At the end of the dec . qt The share price was 42 and change . Look at what they claim as the qt gain the numbers don't match. I am all over this and have turned in your statements for those Qt . The governing body agrees its smells to high heaven.

https://ww3.janus.com/advisor/mutual-funds/fund-detail/rating/janus-overseas-fund-343

The worst part with mine is I only have like 10 choices of funds and have to stay with those high overhead mutuals. Can't just roll it into a single stock. But if I could I'd probably guess wrong and lose it so it's probably best.

 

[Nemesis 1]

Ya It would have been nice to beable to roll over into AMD stock when it was a buck and change . They keep us from making the real money on 401 Ks . I pretty much out of stocks other than Apple Intel and imagination . I went to gold some time ago after I sold my NV shorts.

 

[woolfe9999]

Ya It would have been nice to beable to roll over into AMD stock when it was a buck and change . They keep us from making the real money on 401 Ks . I pretty much out of stocks other than Apple Intel and imagination . I went to gold some time ago after I sold my NV shorts.

Nice call on Apple, especially if you've been in it for awhile. They are an amazing company.

- wolf