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Steve Jobs was quoted as saying this about lottery..

Miscthree

Miscthree

Member
paraphrasing...
'I don't usually play lotto, but whenever I do play, I always choose the numbers 1,2,3,4,5 and 6; those numbers have the same chance of hitting than any random quick pick...which kinda shows the idiocy of playing'..
 
Let's say the lottery ticket costs $1, and it's 6 numbers long (5x 1-56, 1x 1-46). That's 56^5 46 = 2.5 billion possibilities. Say the jackpot is $540 million, and only 1 number wins.

That's an expectation of 21 cents, or a 79 cent expected loss on every ticket purchased.

The number of people buying tickets also adversely affects your payout.

So he's right.
 
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Who cares? As long as you don't go crazy playing the lottery, what's the big deal of spending $5 or so when the jackpot is big? You're not going to miss that $5 much, and you get $5 worth of daydreaming about winning after you buy your ticket. God knows I waste $5 on dumber shit than a chance to win millions. If you don't play at all, you have zero chance of winning.
 
In other news, Steve Jobs is dead...

\which, if the reports are true, he could have found a few more years if he'd gotten some treatments sooner...
 
Miscthree said:
paraphrasing...
'I don't usually play lotto, but whenever I do play, I always choose the numbers 1,2,3,4,5 and 6; those numbers have the same chance of hitting than any random quick pick...which kinda shows the idiocy of playing'..
Click to expand...

Actually, it has the same odds of winning, not the same chance.

:sneaky:
 
Farmer said:
Let's say the lottery ticket costs $1, and it's 6 numbers long (5x 1-56, 1x 1-46). That's 56^5 46 = 2.5 billion possibilities. Say the jackpot is $540 million, and only 1 number wins.

That's an expectation of 21 cents, or a 79 cent expected loss on every ticket purchased.

The number of people buying tickets also adversely affects your payout.

So he's right.
Click to expand...

Per the link below,the odds of winning are about 176 million to one.

http://www.durangobill.com/MegaMillionsOdds.html
 
maybe I'm just dumb, but isn't that sorta wrong? sure, the chance is the same as any other specific randomly chosen set of numbers. But the odds are against all 6 numbers being so low, right?
 
i dont play because i dont believe the proceeds go to good causes. if half the money didnt go to the feds, and the profits didnt go to state level corrupt political agendas i would love to play.
 
Farmer said:
Let's say the lottery ticket costs $1, and it's 6 numbers long (5x 1-56, 1x 1-46). That's 56^5 46 = 2.5 billion possibilities. Say the jackpot is $540 million, and only 1 number wins.

That's an expectation of 21 cents, or a 79 cent expected loss on every ticket purchased.

The number of people buying tickets also adversely affects your payout.

So he's right.
Click to expand...

Some knowledge of basic probability and no common sense is a dangerous combination.
 
slayer202 said:
maybe I'm just dumb, but isn't that sorta wrong? sure, the chance is the same as any other specific randomly chosen set of numbers. But the odds are against all 6 numbers being so low, right?
Click to expand...

Correct. But the odds against any other random combination of 6 numbers is just as low.
 
And, I'd like add this - let the winner be someone other than a 900 year old retiree... Let it be someone that's 18.

The entertainment value alone would be worth it...
 
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There are several items in a lottery that trump the pure logic of the sequences. This is one of the reasons games of chance that use physical items like balls, change them periodically.
 
goog40 said:
Do you understand how you win the jackpot in a typical lottery?

Hint: order doesn't matter.
Click to expand...

OK, didn't know that.

So I guess that makes it 2.11e8 possibilities. Which apparently makes the lottery a good investment as long as the jackpot is over $211 million.
 
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It's a stupid approach though. Yes, the odds of winning for 1,2,3,4,5,6 are the same as for any other combination, but if you do win, you will need to share it with others who picked that same combination.
And I'm guessing there are many "smartasses" who will pick 1-6, so you're better off choosing some random combination without such obvious patterns.

I don't play lottery myself, but I too don't see a harm in playing for like $5/week, it buys you dreaming about what-if, which is fine as long as you don't start to look at it as an investment.
 
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