State of the US economy

[charrison]

Originally posted by: alchemize

Originally posted by: charrison

Originally posted by: miketheidiot

Originally posted by: charrison

Originally posted by: Skoorb
I don't really know anymore. I still don't know if this "bottoming" is real. Things are definitely not as bad as I thought they would be at this point, but not until we're well and truly months past possible catastrophe can we say where the bottom was. I still stand by my overall prediction that if the US avoids great calamity (unemployment well into the double digits), it will see mostly stagnant growth for some years, as it putters along trying to unwind from the mess.

I think this is going to be another V shaped recession(the bounce back is going to be a strong as the dive down). However the amount of gov spending is probably going to cause problems down the road.

We have hit bottom and upswing has started and it has little to do the with stimulus package as it has barely started flowing out.

no

NO to a v shape recession or no to we have hit bottom?

I don't see a V-shaped recession. We may have hit bottom (I'm still skeptical but I'm seeing some indicators - dead cat bounce?), but the whole housing issues haven't unwound yet. Some of my reasons for continued weakness:

- Foreclosures are back on the upswing after the moratorium, AND we haven't started seeing the unemployment-based foreclosures because most are collecting unemployment/drawing on what limited savings/credit they have.
- The next wave of mortgage resets hasn't hit yet, and it's as big as subprime - Option and Alt-A waves upcoming
- There are still huge supplies of empty houses to be sold. Until that inventory is sold down, the housing market will remain in the toilet.
- EVERYONE is now risk-averse. Banks, businesses, individuals.

Housing has without a doubt hit bottom. Housing affordability is at all time high and housing sales are strong, so that excessive inventory is being worked off. Housing prices have returned to sane levels and so have sane buyers with good credit.

 

[SarcasticDwarf]

Originally posted by: charrison

Originally posted by: alchemize

Originally posted by: charrison

Originally posted by: miketheidiot

Originally posted by: charrison

Originally posted by: Skoorb
I don't really know anymore. I still don't know if this "bottoming" is real. Things are definitely not as bad as I thought they would be at this point, but not until we're well and truly months past possible catastrophe can we say where the bottom was. I still stand by my overall prediction that if the US avoids great calamity (unemployment well into the double digits), it will see mostly stagnant growth for some years, as it putters along trying to unwind from the mess.

I think this is going to be another V shaped recession(the bounce back is going to be a strong as the dive down). However the amount of gov spending is probably going to cause problems down the road.

We have hit bottom and upswing has started and it has little to do the with stimulus package as it has barely started flowing out.

no

NO to a v shape recession or no to we have hit bottom?

I don't see a V-shaped recession. We may have hit bottom (I'm still skeptical but I'm seeing some indicators - dead cat bounce?), but the whole housing issues haven't unwound yet. Some of my reasons for continued weakness:

- Foreclosures are back on the upswing after the moratorium, AND we haven't started seeing the unemployment-based foreclosures because most are collecting unemployment/drawing on what limited savings/credit they have.
- The next wave of mortgage resets hasn't hit yet, and it's as big as subprime - Option and Alt-A waves upcoming
- There are still huge supplies of empty houses to be sold. Until that inventory is sold down, the housing market will remain in the toilet.
- EVERYONE is now risk-averse. Banks, businesses, individuals.

Housing has without a doubt hit bottom. Housing affordability is at all time high and housing sales are strong, so that excessive inventory is being worked off. Housing prices have returned to sane levels and so have sane buyers with good credit.

What fantasy dimension do you live in? Housing prices are nowhere near all-time affordability relative to income. And even with decent credit most people are unable to get a loan, and most of those that can are still sitting on the bench.

 

[charrison]

Originally posted by: SarcasticDwarf

Originally posted by: charrison

Originally posted by: alchemize

Originally posted by: charrison

Originally posted by: miketheidiot

Originally posted by: charrison

Originally posted by: Skoorb
I don't really know anymore. I still don't know if this "bottoming" is real. Things are definitely not as bad as I thought they would be at this point, but not until we're well and truly months past possible catastrophe can we say where the bottom was. I still stand by my overall prediction that if the US avoids great calamity (unemployment well into the double digits), it will see mostly stagnant growth for some years, as it putters along trying to unwind from the mess.

I think this is going to be another V shaped recession(the bounce back is going to be a strong as the dive down). However the amount of gov spending is probably going to cause problems down the road.

We have hit bottom and upswing has started and it has little to do the with stimulus package as it has barely started flowing out.

no

NO to a v shape recession or no to we have hit bottom?

I don't see a V-shaped recession. We may have hit bottom (I'm still skeptical but I'm seeing some indicators - dead cat bounce?), but the whole housing issues haven't unwound yet. Some of my reasons for continued weakness:

- Foreclosures are back on the upswing after the moratorium, AND we haven't started seeing the unemployment-based foreclosures because most are collecting unemployment/drawing on what limited savings/credit they have.
- The next wave of mortgage resets hasn't hit yet, and it's as big as subprime - Option and Alt-A waves upcoming
- There are still huge supplies of empty houses to be sold. Until that inventory is sold down, the housing market will remain in the toilet.
- EVERYONE is now risk-averse. Banks, businesses, individuals.

Housing has without a doubt hit bottom. Housing affordability is at all time high and housing sales are strong, so that excessive inventory is being worked off. Housing prices have returned to sane levels and so have sane buyers with good credit.

What fantasy dimension do you live in? Housing prices are nowhere near all-time affordability relative to income. And even with decent credit most people are unable to get a loan, and most of those that can are still sitting on the bench.

The fantasy dimension I live in is reality. Housing prices have crashed in bubble markets and interest rates are very low. Housing is very affordable now.

linkage

Housing sales are way up because of affordability and excess inventory is being worked out. Prices are even starting to rise a bit.linkage

 

[Slew Foot]

Originally posted by: charrison

Originally posted by: SarcasticDwarf

Originally posted by: charrison

Originally posted by: alchemize

Originally posted by: charrison

Originally posted by: miketheidiot

Originally posted by: charrison

Originally posted by: Skoorb
I don't really know anymore. I still don't know if this "bottoming" is real. Things are definitely not as bad as I thought they would be at this point, but not until we're well and truly months past possible catastrophe can we say where the bottom was. I still stand by my overall prediction that if the US avoids great calamity (unemployment well into the double digits), it will see mostly stagnant growth for some years, as it putters along trying to unwind from the mess.

I think this is going to be another V shaped recession(the bounce back is going to be a strong as the dive down). However the amount of gov spending is probably going to cause problems down the road.

We have hit bottom and upswing has started and it has little to do the with stimulus package as it has barely started flowing out.

no

NO to a v shape recession or no to we have hit bottom?

I don't see a V-shaped recession. We may have hit bottom (I'm still skeptical but I'm seeing some indicators - dead cat bounce?), but the whole housing issues haven't unwound yet. Some of my reasons for continued weakness:

- Foreclosures are back on the upswing after the moratorium, AND we haven't started seeing the unemployment-based foreclosures because most are collecting unemployment/drawing on what limited savings/credit they have.
- The next wave of mortgage resets hasn't hit yet, and it's as big as subprime - Option and Alt-A waves upcoming
- There are still huge supplies of empty houses to be sold. Until that inventory is sold down, the housing market will remain in the toilet.
- EVERYONE is now risk-averse. Banks, businesses, individuals.

Housing has without a doubt hit bottom. Housing affordability is at all time high and housing sales are strong, so that excessive inventory is being worked off. Housing prices have returned to sane levels and so have sane buyers with good credit.

What fantasy dimension do you live in? Housing prices are nowhere near all-time affordability relative to income. And even with decent credit most people are unable to get a loan, and most of those that can are still sitting on the bench.

The fantasy dimension I live in is reality. Housing prices have crashed in bubble markets and interest rates are very low. Housing is very affordable now.

linkage

Housing sails are way up because of affordability and excess inventory is worked out. Prices are even starting to rise a bit.linkage

Housing is a tale of different markets right now. Lower end areas that have crashed are starting to bottom out while upper end places are just starting to feel the pain.

And Evan is an idiot, this is an unprecedented event in the US history, its more akin to post war Germany or post RE crash Japan than anything else in US history.

 

[WhipperSnapper]

I predict that the economy will continue to worsen and that the media will continue to report "good news" in the form of "less jobs were lost last month" (failing to note that there were fewer to be lost). I also predict that the blue-skies benevolent-universe types will continue to predict a recovery and at some point they'll forget that the economy could be better and just say that the economy is strong and that having 10% reported unemployment is natural.

 

[charrison]

Originally posted by: WhipperSnapper

I predict that the economy will continue to worsen and that the media will continue to report "good news" in the form of "less jobs were lost last month" (failing to note that there were fewer to be lost). I also predict that the blue-skies benevolent-universe types will continue to predict a recovery and at some point they'll forget that the economy could be better and just say that the economy is strong and that having 10% reported unemployment is natural.

Coming from a permabear, i am not surprised.

 

[Deleted member 4644]

Originally posted by: BoberFett

Originally posted by: charrison

Originally posted by: techs

Originally posted by: Mursilis

Originally posted by: BoberFett

Originally posted by: Mursilis

Originally posted by: RoloMather
This would ideally be a thread with predictions and updates on the US economy.

To start off:

California is going to have a $20B deficit.
http://forums.anandtech.com/me...=2299627&enterthread=y

Is CA just the start?

A $20B deficit in a single budget year? That's just a laugh. The feds can dig that big a hole in a good month! It's like your house is burning down and you're worried about the firefighters tracking mud on your carpet.

California is a state. A big one, sure, but still just one of many. If every state was running the same deficit per capita the aggregate would be a massive hole.

California is a liberal Disneyland which has found it can't pay for its grand vision of utopia. Most states will have to trim their budgets, but will manage to do so without the drama.

Actually California is going broke sending its money to the Federal Government which is giving it to the low tax, less educated recepient states who use it subsidized their failed states.
If California only got back from the Feds what it paid to the Feds it would instantaly have a balanced budget.

So progressive taxes are bad?

They're all for redistribution until it hits them personally.

Take a class in logic buddy. The comment was that CA is a liberal Disneyland that can't pay for its vision. The TRUTH is that CA sends boatloads of $$$$$ to Southern failed states and the Federal govt that never benefits CA (at least, not very directly).

It has nothing to do with progressive taxes. I don't bitch about CA being a donor state, but you better not bitch about our politics if you want us to keep sending you money for your fire departments and hospitals.

 

[First]

Originally posted by: Jaskalas

Originally posted by: Evan
Yeah, you don't know what you're talking about. Legal Mexican immigrants have a replacement rate of 2.7 and whites 2.1. Population growth for legal citizens compound considerably over time. The BLS projects a 12M population increase in CA alone by 2050. That's just one state.

The United States birth rate is 2.1, NOT enough for substantial population growth. The vast majority (90%+) of that growth is going to come from immigrants.

Compounded over time it is actually. Of course, since the entire nation, since its founding, is composed of immigrants that have spurred our massive population growth, I fail to see a significant distinction.