State of the US economy

[charrison]

Originally posted by: heyheybooboo
Yup. The economy is really looking up.

Looks like we 'only' lost 500k jobs last month ... that's gotta be at least a 12% improvement right there.

The good news is that unemployment claims will drop about as fast as the rose. So if unemployment numbers have in fact peaked, things should get much better in the near future.

 

[heyheybooboo]

Originally posted by: charrison

Originally posted by: heyheybooboo
Yup. The economy is really looking up.

Looks like we 'only' lost 500k jobs last month ... that's gotta be at least a 12% improvement right there.

The good news is that unemployment claims will drop about as fast as the rose. So if unemployment numbers have in fact peaked, things should get much better in the near future.

Fer sure.

With a 12% improvement each month we'll only lose 3 million more jobs by the holidays.

Yippee! Unemployment claims will drop. And then we can concentrate on building 60,000 or so Walmarts to hire the 17 million unemployed.

 

[BoberFett]

Originally posted by: Phokus
Only in the sense that worthless and uneducated red states take money from the rest of us and aren't grateful in the least.

So you're against welfare?

 

[MotF Bane]

Originally posted by: Phokus

Originally posted by: charrison

Originally posted by: techs

Originally posted by: Mursilis

Originally posted by: BoberFett

Originally posted by: Mursilis

Originally posted by: RoloMather
This would ideally be a thread with predictions and updates on the US economy.

To start off:

California is going to have a $20B deficit.
http://forums.anandtech.com/me...=2299627&enterthread=y

Is CA just the start?

A $20B deficit in a single budget year? That's just a laugh. The feds can dig that big a hole in a good month! It's like your house is burning down and you're worried about the firefighters tracking mud on your carpet.

California is a state. A big one, sure, but still just one of many. If every state was running the same deficit per capita the aggregate would be a massive hole.

California is a liberal Disneyland which has found it can't pay for its grand vision of utopia. Most states will have to trim their budgets, but will manage to do so without the drama.

Actually California is going broke sending its money to the Federal Government which is giving it to the low tax, less educated recepient states who use it subsidized their failed states.
If California only got back from the Feds what it paid to the Feds it would instantaly have a balanced budget.

So progressive taxes are bad?

Only in the sense that worthless and uneducated red states take money from the rest of us and aren't grateful in the least.

You can't have it both ways.

 

[charrison]

Originally posted by: heyheybooboo

Originally posted by: charrison

Originally posted by: heyheybooboo
Yup. The economy is really looking up.

Looks like we 'only' lost 500k jobs last month ... that's gotta be at least a 12% improvement right there.

The good news is that unemployment claims will drop about as fast as the rose. So if unemployment numbers have in fact peaked, things should get much better in the near future.

Fer sure.

With a 12% improvement each month we'll only lose 3 million more jobs by the holidays.

Yippee! Unemployment claims will drop. And then we can concentrate on building 60,000 or so Walmarts to hire the 17 million unemployed.

My we are negative....

 

[GuitarDaddy]

Originally posted by: heyheybooboo

Originally posted by: charrison

Originally posted by: heyheybooboo
Yup. The economy is really looking up.

Looks like we 'only' lost 500k jobs last month ... that's gotta be at least a 12% improvement right there.

The good news is that unemployment claims will drop about as fast as the rose. So if unemployment numbers have in fact peaked, things should get much better in the near future.

Fer sure.

With a 12% improvement each month we'll only lose 3 million more jobs by the holidays.

Yippee! Unemployment claims will drop. And then we can concentrate on building 60,000 or so Walmarts to hire the 17 million unemployed.

The only reason unemployment figures aren't droping faster is they aren't closing unemployement offices fast enough:Q

 

[Red Dawn]

Originally posted by: charrison

Then quite complaining about california not getting enough fed money back.

I'm not, I appreciate their difficulty supporting the lesser states.

 

[piasabird]

If California started deporting illegal residents there would be less indigent people to pay for. They have all the illegals so now they have to pay for them. You cant have it both ways.

 

[Special K]

Originally posted by: charrison

Originally posted by: Special K

Originally posted by: charrison

Originally posted by: Skoorb
I don't really know anymore. I still don't know if this "bottoming" is real. Things are definitely not as bad as I thought they would be at this point, but not until we're well and truly months past possible catastrophe can we say where the bottom was. I still stand by my overall prediction that if the US avoids great calamity (unemployment well into the double digits), it will see mostly stagnant growth for some years, as it putters along trying to unwind from the mess.

I think this is going to be another V shaped recession(the bounce back is going to be a strong as the dive down). However the amount of gov spending is probably going to cause problems down the road.

We have hit bottom and upswing has started and it has little to do the with stimulus package as it has barely started flowing out.

So then what was the spark that caused the upswing? If consumer spending accounts for 70% of GDP, how can consumers be spending a lot now when credit is being cut and unemployment continues to rise?

Economies are cyclical. And average long recession in the US is 16 months. That is about where we are in this cycle.

And in case you have noticed unemployment appears to have peaked and new orders on the ISM index are nearing positive territory

It actually rose to 8.9% in April from 8.5% in March, although the rate of increase seems to be decreasing:

link

 

[Special K]

Originally posted by: Evan
It's getting better and we'll start seeing boom/recovery late in the year (and early next year). More excuses will be made by laymens about how the economy isn't sustainable. 25 years later, rinse and repeat.

Won't there be any long-term consequences to the billions of dollars that have been spent on bailouts? Isn't that an unprecedented move in the history of our economy?

 

[Mursilis]

Originally posted by: techs

Actually California is going broke sending its money to the Federal Government which is giving it to the low tax, less educated recepient states who use it subsidized their failed states.
If California only got back from the Feds what it paid to the Feds it would instantaly have a balanced budget.

This has been discussed a million times. If Cali doesn't like sending off $X to the Feds and getting only $Y back (given X>Y), then quit whining and stop sending so damn much money to DC! Otherwise, STFU!! The first time you get jobbed by Nigerian scammers, maybe you can share the blame; the 100th time, it's your own damn fault!

 

[Mursilis]

Originally posted by: BoberFett

Originally posted by: Phokus
Only in the sense that worthless and uneducated red states take money from the rest of us and aren't grateful in the least.

So you're against welfare?

He's not - he's a classic enabler. Why are the biggest proponents of evolution so afraid of embracing the implications of it?

 

[charrison]

Originally posted by: Special K

Originally posted by: charrison

Originally posted by: Special K

Originally posted by: charrison

Originally posted by: Skoorb
I don't really know anymore. I still don't know if this "bottoming" is real. Things are definitely not as bad as I thought they would be at this point, but not until we're well and truly months past possible catastrophe can we say where the bottom was. I still stand by my overall prediction that if the US avoids great calamity (unemployment well into the double digits), it will see mostly stagnant growth for some years, as it putters along trying to unwind from the mess.

I think this is going to be another V shaped recession(the bounce back is going to be a strong as the dive down). However the amount of gov spending is probably going to cause problems down the road.

We have hit bottom and upswing has started and it has little to do the with stimulus package as it has barely started flowing out.

So then what was the spark that caused the upswing? If consumer spending accounts for 70% of GDP, how can consumers be spending a lot now when credit is being cut and unemployment continues to rise?

Economies are cyclical. And average long recession in the US is 16 months. That is about where we are in this cycle.

And in case you have noticed unemployment appears to have peaked and new orders on the ISM index are nearing positive territory

It actually rose to 8.9% in April from 8.5% in March, although the rate of increase seems to be decreasing:

link

I was referring to first time unemployment claims. They are dropping and they historically drop as fast as they rise. Total unemployment will continue to rise for a while as it lagging indicator of the economy.

 

[blackangst1]

Originally posted by: techs

Originally posted by: Mursilis

Originally posted by: BoberFett

Originally posted by: Mursilis

Originally posted by: RoloMather
This would ideally be a thread with predictions and updates on the US economy.

To start off:

California is going to have a $20B deficit.
http://forums.anandtech.com/me...=2299627&enterthread=y

Is CA just the start?

A $20B deficit in a single budget year? That's just a laugh. The feds can dig that big a hole in a good month! It's like your house is burning down and you're worried about the firefighters tracking mud on your carpet.

California is a state. A big one, sure, but still just one of many. If every state was running the same deficit per capita the aggregate would be a massive hole.

California is a liberal Disneyland which has found it can't pay for its grand vision of utopia. Most states will have to trim their budgets, but will manage to do so without the drama.

Actually California is going broke sending its money to the Federal Government which is giving it to the low tax, less educated recepient states who use it subsidized their failed states.
If California only got back from the Feds what it paid to the Feds it would instantaly have a balanced budget.

Kind of like personal taxes Take from those who have, and give it to those who dont

 

[First]

Originally posted by: Special K

Originally posted by: Evan
It's getting better and we'll start seeing boom/recovery late in the year (and early next year). More excuses will be made by laymens about how the economy isn't sustainable. 25 years later, rinse and repeat.

Won't there be any long-term consequences to the billions of dollars that have been spent on bailouts? Isn't that an unprecedented move in the history of our economy?

As a % of GDP it's not even top 5 among Western countries. If the U.S. economy grows at annualized rate of even just 3% averaged over, say, the next 20 years (and there have been plenty of 20 year periods with a mean of 3%/yr), then it probably takes care of trillions. Add in the 12-20M illegals that will be legalized and taxed, higher taxes, fewer tax loop holes, and population growth generally, and it's really not hard to see the deficit brought back down.

Not to mention billions have already been paid back by major banks that are in the black as of the last quarter. The gov't may be taking on all the risk but they're getting good interest in either case.

 

[Slew Foot]

Originally posted by: Evan

Originally posted by: Special K

Originally posted by: Evan
It's getting better and we'll start seeing boom/recovery late in the year (and early next year). More excuses will be made by laymens about how the economy isn't sustainable. 25 years later, rinse and repeat.

Won't there be any long-term consequences to the billions of dollars that have been spent on bailouts? Isn't that an unprecedented move in the history of our economy?

As a % of GDP it's not even top 5 among Western countries. If the U.S. economy grows at annualized rate of even just 3% averaged over, say, the next 20 years (and there have been plenty of 20 year periods with a mean of 3%/yr), then it probably takes care of trillions. Add in the 12-20M illegals that will be legalized and taxed, higher taxes, fewer tax loop holes, and population growth generally, and it's really not hard to see the deficit brought back down.

Not to mention billions have already been paid back by major banks that are in the black as of the last quarter. The gov't may be taking on all the risk but they're getting good interest in either case.

I know the government wants to legalize the illegals but the majority of the citizens dont want that to happen. Im willing to bet that most of them arent exactly going to be in a tax bracket where theyre contributing anything meaningful, and will likely take more in resources than they contribute.

Higher taxes are inevitable but politically damaging.

Closing loopholes will have a debatable effect, im sure many new loopholes will be exploited.

US Population growth is generally pretty low, aside from the illegal mexicans who probably arent going to be paying significant amounts of taxes.

The largest surplus in US history was 200 billion at the height of the dot com bubble, we're on pace to plunge 2 trillion more into the hole this year alone. Theres only one way this debt is being paid off (see the sig)

 

[Jaskalas]

Originally posted by: Slew Foot
The largest surplus in US history was 200 billion at the height of the dot com bubble, we're on pace to plunge 2 trillion more into the hole this year alone. Theres only one way this debt is being paid off (see the sig)

Your signature is perfectly accurate. Watch for rising prices.

 

[RoloMather]

Originally posted by: Jaskalas

Originally posted by: Slew Foot
The largest surplus in US history was 200 billion at the height of the dot com bubble, we're on pace to plunge 2 trillion more into the hole this year alone. Theres only one way this debt is being paid off (see the sig)

Your signature is perfectly accurate. Watch for rising prices.

Your sig. $13 Trillion huh? How is that going to be pay back?

 

[miketheidiot]

Originally posted by: charrison

Originally posted by: Skoorb
I don't really know anymore. I still don't know if this "bottoming" is real. Things are definitely not as bad as I thought they would be at this point, but not until we're well and truly months past possible catastrophe can we say where the bottom was. I still stand by my overall prediction that if the US avoids great calamity (unemployment well into the double digits), it will see mostly stagnant growth for some years, as it putters along trying to unwind from the mess.

I think this is going to be another V shaped recession(the bounce back is going to be a strong as the dive down). However the amount of gov spending is probably going to cause problems down the road.

We have hit bottom and upswing has started and it has little to do the with stimulus package as it has barely started flowing out.

no

 

[nullzero]

Originally posted by: charrison

Originally posted by: Skoorb
I don't really know anymore. I still don't know if this "bottoming" is real. Things are definitely not as bad as I thought they would be at this point, but not until we're well and truly months past possible catastrophe can we say where the bottom was. I still stand by my overall prediction that if the US avoids great calamity (unemployment well into the double digits), it will see mostly stagnant growth for some years, as it putters along trying to unwind from the mess.

I think this is going to be another V shaped recession(the bounce back is going to be a strong as the dive down). However the amount of gov spending is probably going to cause problems down the road.

We have hit bottom and upswing has started and it has little to do the with stimulus package as it has barely started flowing out.

Government spending is already causing problems (Just take a look at the rise in treasury rates http://www.reuters.com/article...idUSTRE54760E20090508) it will not be a V shape recession more like a W. All the recent false optimism will soon be crushed when the rates start to pass onto consumers. The problems in CA are just the start, CA is a good indicator of where this nation is heading (bankruptcy).

 

[First]

Originally posted by: Slew Foot

I know the government wants to legalize the illegals but the majority of the citizens dont want that to happen. Im willing to bet that most of them arent exactly going to be in a tax bracket where theyre contributing anything meaningful, and will likely take more in resources than they contribute.

Considering illegals are a net economic positive despite a good majority of them not paying federal taxes, your contention is both baseless and out of touch. Legalizing them is as inevitable as it gets, happens every decade.

Higher taxes are inevitable but politically damaging.

Closing loopholes will have a debatable effect, im sure many new loopholes will be exploited.

Not if it's done well and at the margin.

US Population growth is generally pretty low, aside from the illegal mexicans who probably arent going to be paying significant amounts of taxes.

Yeah, you don't know what you're talking about. Legal Mexican immigrants have a replacement rate of 2.7 and whites 2.1. Population growth for legal citizens compound considerably over time. The BLS projects a 12M population increase in CA alone by 2050. That's just one state.

The largest surplus in US history was 200 billion at the height of the dot com bubble, we're on pace to plunge 2 trillion more into the hole this year alone. Theres only one way this debt is being paid off (see the sig)

200+ years of history and economics says, nah.

 

[charrison]

Originally posted by: miketheidiot

Originally posted by: charrison

Originally posted by: Skoorb
I don't really know anymore. I still don't know if this "bottoming" is real. Things are definitely not as bad as I thought they would be at this point, but not until we're well and truly months past possible catastrophe can we say where the bottom was. I still stand by my overall prediction that if the US avoids great calamity (unemployment well into the double digits), it will see mostly stagnant growth for some years, as it putters along trying to unwind from the mess.

I think this is going to be another V shaped recession(the bounce back is going to be a strong as the dive down). However the amount of gov spending is probably going to cause problems down the road.

We have hit bottom and upswing has started and it has little to do the with stimulus package as it has barely started flowing out.

no

NO to a v shape recession or no to we have hit bottom?

 

[alchemize]

Originally posted by: charrison

Originally posted by: miketheidiot

Originally posted by: charrison

Originally posted by: Skoorb
I don't really know anymore. I still don't know if this "bottoming" is real. Things are definitely not as bad as I thought they would be at this point, but not until we're well and truly months past possible catastrophe can we say where the bottom was. I still stand by my overall prediction that if the US avoids great calamity (unemployment well into the double digits), it will see mostly stagnant growth for some years, as it putters along trying to unwind from the mess.

I think this is going to be another V shaped recession(the bounce back is going to be a strong as the dive down). However the amount of gov spending is probably going to cause problems down the road.

We have hit bottom and upswing has started and it has little to do the with stimulus package as it has barely started flowing out.

no

NO to a v shape recession or no to we have hit bottom?

I don't see a V-shaped recession. We may have hit bottom (I'm still skeptical but I'm seeing some indicators - dead cat bounce?), but the whole housing issues haven't unwound yet. Some of my reasons for continued weakness:

- Foreclosures are back on the upswing after the moratorium, AND we haven't started seeing the unemployment-based foreclosures because most are collecting unemployment/drawing on what limited savings/credit they have.
- The next wave of mortgage resets hasn't hit yet, and it's as big as subprime - Option and Alt-A waves upcoming
- There are still huge supplies of empty houses to be sold. Until that inventory is sold down, the housing market will remain in the toilet.
- EVERYONE is now risk-averse. Banks, businesses, individuals.

 

[Jaskalas]

Originally posted by: Evan
Yeah, you don't know what you're talking about. Legal Mexican immigrants have a replacement rate of 2.7 and whites 2.1. Population growth for legal citizens compound considerably over time. The BLS projects a 12M population increase in CA alone by 2050. That's just one state.

The United States birth rate is 2.1, NOT enough for substantial population growth. The vast majority (90%+) of that growth is going to come from immigrants.

 

[ProfJohn]

We all know this is just a mental recession