State of the US economy

[RoloMather]

This would ideally be a thread with predictions and updates on the US economy.

To start off:

California is going to have a $20B deficit.
http://forums.anandtech.com/me...=2299627&enterthread=y

Is CA just the start?

 

[StageLeft]

I don't really know anymore. I still don't know if this "bottoming" is real. Things are definitely not as bad as I thought they would be at this point, but not until we're well and truly months past possible catastrophe can we say where the bottom was. I still stand by my overall prediction that if the US avoids great calamity (unemployment well into the double digits), it will see mostly stagnant growth for some years, as it putters along trying to unwind from the mess.

 

[Mursilis]

Originally posted by: RoloMather
This would ideally be a thread with predictions and updates on the US economy.

To start off:

California is going to have a $20B deficit.
http://forums.anandtech.com/me...=2299627&enterthread=y

Is CA just the start?

A $20B deficit in a single budget year? That's just a laugh. The feds can dig that big a hole in a good month! It's like your house is burning down and you're worried about the firefighters tracking mud on your carpet.

 

[charrison]

Originally posted by: Skoorb
I don't really know anymore. I still don't know if this "bottoming" is real. Things are definitely not as bad as I thought they would be at this point, but not until we're well and truly months past possible catastrophe can we say where the bottom was. I still stand by my overall prediction that if the US avoids great calamity (unemployment well into the double digits), it will see mostly stagnant growth for some years, as it putters along trying to unwind from the mess.

I think this is going to be another V shaped recession(the bounce back is going to be a strong as the dive down). However the amount of gov spending is probably going to cause problems down the road.

We have hit bottom and upswing has started and it has little to do the with stimulus package as it has barely started flowing out.

 

[BoberFett]

Originally posted by: Mursilis

Originally posted by: RoloMather
This would ideally be a thread with predictions and updates on the US economy.

To start off:

California is going to have a $20B deficit.
http://forums.anandtech.com/me...=2299627&enterthread=y

Is CA just the start?

A $20B deficit in a single budget year? That's just a laugh. The feds can dig that big a hole in a good month! It's like your house is burning down and you're worried about the firefighters tracking mud on your carpet.

California is a state. A big one, sure, but still just one of many. If every state was running the same deficit per capita the aggregate would be a massive hole.

 

[Mursilis]

Originally posted by: BoberFett

Originally posted by: Mursilis

Originally posted by: RoloMather
This would ideally be a thread with predictions and updates on the US economy.

To start off:

California is going to have a $20B deficit.
http://forums.anandtech.com/me...=2299627&enterthread=y

Is CA just the start?

A $20B deficit in a single budget year? That's just a laugh. The feds can dig that big a hole in a good month! It's like your house is burning down and you're worried about the firefighters tracking mud on your carpet.

California is a state. A big one, sure, but still just one of many. If every state was running the same deficit per capita the aggregate would be a massive hole.

California is a liberal Disneyland which has found it can't pay for its grand vision of utopia. Most states will have to trim their budgets, but will manage to do so without the drama.

 

[shadow9d9]

Originally posted by: Mursilis

Originally posted by: BoberFett

Originally posted by: Mursilis

Originally posted by: RoloMather
This would ideally be a thread with predictions and updates on the US economy.

To start off:

California is going to have a $20B deficit.
http://forums.anandtech.com/me...=2299627&enterthread=y

Is CA just the start?

A $20B deficit in a single budget year? That's just a laugh. The feds can dig that big a hole in a good month! It's like your house is burning down and you're worried about the firefighters tracking mud on your carpet.

California is a state. A big one, sure, but still just one of many. If every state was running the same deficit per capita the aggregate would be a massive hole.

California is a liberal Disneyland which has found it can't pay for its grand vision of utopia. Most states will have to trim their budgets, but will manage to do so without the drama.

Time to remove the nonsensical "liberal" label, since Prop 8 was voted yes.

Can't have it both ways.

 

[Special K]

Originally posted by: charrison

Originally posted by: Skoorb
I don't really know anymore. I still don't know if this "bottoming" is real. Things are definitely not as bad as I thought they would be at this point, but not until we're well and truly months past possible catastrophe can we say where the bottom was. I still stand by my overall prediction that if the US avoids great calamity (unemployment well into the double digits), it will see mostly stagnant growth for some years, as it putters along trying to unwind from the mess.

I think this is going to be another V shaped recession(the bounce back is going to be a strong as the dive down). However the amount of gov spending is probably going to cause problems down the road.

We have hit bottom and upswing has started and it has little to do the with stimulus package as it has barely started flowing out.

So then what was the spark that caused the upswing? If consumer spending accounts for 70% of GDP, how can consumers be spending a lot now when credit is being cut and unemployment continues to rise?

 

[StageLeft]

Originally posted by: Special K

Originally posted by: charrison

Originally posted by: Skoorb
I don't really know anymore. I still don't know if this "bottoming" is real. Things are definitely not as bad as I thought they would be at this point, but not until we're well and truly months past possible catastrophe can we say where the bottom was. I still stand by my overall prediction that if the US avoids great calamity (unemployment well into the double digits), it will see mostly stagnant growth for some years, as it putters along trying to unwind from the mess.

I think this is going to be another V shaped recession(the bounce back is going to be a strong as the dive down). However the amount of gov spending is probably going to cause problems down the road.

We have hit bottom and upswing has started and it has little to do the with stimulus package as it has barely started flowing out.

So then what was the spark that caused the upswing? If consumer spending accounts for 70% of GDP, how can consumers be spending a lot now when credit is being cut and unemployment continues to rise?

I guess the spark is "optimism", who knows, this economy is as much perception as anything else.

 

[Stunt]

Originally posted by: Special K

Originally posted by: charrison

Originally posted by: Skoorb
I don't really know anymore. I still don't know if this "bottoming" is real. Things are definitely not as bad as I thought they would be at this point, but not until we're well and truly months past possible catastrophe can we say where the bottom was. I still stand by my overall prediction that if the US avoids great calamity (unemployment well into the double digits), it will see mostly stagnant growth for some years, as it putters along trying to unwind from the mess.

I think this is going to be another V shaped recession(the bounce back is going to be a strong as the dive down). However the amount of gov spending is probably going to cause problems down the road.

We have hit bottom and upswing has started and it has little to do the with stimulus package as it has barely started flowing out.

So then what was the spark that caused the upswing? If consumer spending accounts for 70% of GDP, how can consumers be spending a lot now when credit is being cut and unemployment continues to rise?

The economy is like a pendulum, it gets overheated, bubbles in the most lucrative (or at least perceived) and bursts. Then people get scared and try to protect their downside by selling everything and saving. Last quarter was the first time in years the average savings rate was positive; you saw the results of this in discretionary spending (ie. cars). People have money, lots of it. Sure unemployment is up but it's only up a few percent; so the others can more than make up for that, especially with the assistance of the government stimulus. It could potentially swing back quickly; just watch those consumer confidence levels...

 

[techs]

Originally posted by: Mursilis

Originally posted by: BoberFett

Originally posted by: Mursilis

Originally posted by: RoloMather
This would ideally be a thread with predictions and updates on the US economy.

To start off:

California is going to have a $20B deficit.
http://forums.anandtech.com/me...=2299627&enterthread=y

Is CA just the start?

A $20B deficit in a single budget year? That's just a laugh. The feds can dig that big a hole in a good month! It's like your house is burning down and you're worried about the firefighters tracking mud on your carpet.

California is a state. A big one, sure, but still just one of many. If every state was running the same deficit per capita the aggregate would be a massive hole.

California is a liberal Disneyland which has found it can't pay for its grand vision of utopia. Most states will have to trim their budgets, but will manage to do so without the drama.

Actually California is going broke sending its money to the Federal Government which is giving it to the low tax, less educated recepient states who use it subsidized their failed states.
If California only got back from the Feds what it paid to the Feds it would instantaly have a balanced budget.

 

[charrison]

Originally posted by: Special K

Originally posted by: charrison

Originally posted by: Skoorb
I don't really know anymore. I still don't know if this "bottoming" is real. Things are definitely not as bad as I thought they would be at this point, but not until we're well and truly months past possible catastrophe can we say where the bottom was. I still stand by my overall prediction that if the US avoids great calamity (unemployment well into the double digits), it will see mostly stagnant growth for some years, as it putters along trying to unwind from the mess.

I think this is going to be another V shaped recession(the bounce back is going to be a strong as the dive down). However the amount of gov spending is probably going to cause problems down the road.

We have hit bottom and upswing has started and it has little to do the with stimulus package as it has barely started flowing out.

So then what was the spark that caused the upswing? If consumer spending accounts for 70% of GDP, how can consumers be spending a lot now when credit is being cut and unemployment continues to rise?

Economies are cyclical. And average long recession in the US is 16 months. That is about where we are in this cycle.

And in case you have noticed unemployment appears to have peaked and new orders on the ISM index are nearing positive territory

 

[charrison]

Originally posted by: techs

Originally posted by: Mursilis

Originally posted by: BoberFett

Originally posted by: Mursilis

Originally posted by: RoloMather
This would ideally be a thread with predictions and updates on the US economy.

To start off:

California is going to have a $20B deficit.
http://forums.anandtech.com/me...=2299627&enterthread=y

Is CA just the start?

A $20B deficit in a single budget year? That's just a laugh. The feds can dig that big a hole in a good month! It's like your house is burning down and you're worried about the firefighters tracking mud on your carpet.

California is a state. A big one, sure, but still just one of many. If every state was running the same deficit per capita the aggregate would be a massive hole.

California is a liberal Disneyland which has found it can't pay for its grand vision of utopia. Most states will have to trim their budgets, but will manage to do so without the drama.

Actually California is going broke sending its money to the Federal Government which is giving it to the low tax, less educated recepient states who use it subsidized their failed states.
If California only got back from the Feds what it paid to the Feds it would instantaly have a balanced budget.

So progressive taxes are bad?

 

[BoberFett]

Originally posted by: charrison

Originally posted by: techs

Originally posted by: Mursilis

Originally posted by: BoberFett

Originally posted by: Mursilis

Originally posted by: RoloMather
This would ideally be a thread with predictions and updates on the US economy.

To start off:

California is going to have a $20B deficit.
http://forums.anandtech.com/me...=2299627&enterthread=y

Is CA just the start?

A $20B deficit in a single budget year? That's just a laugh. The feds can dig that big a hole in a good month! It's like your house is burning down and you're worried about the firefighters tracking mud on your carpet.

California is a state. A big one, sure, but still just one of many. If every state was running the same deficit per capita the aggregate would be a massive hole.

California is a liberal Disneyland which has found it can't pay for its grand vision of utopia. Most states will have to trim their budgets, but will manage to do so without the drama.

Actually California is going broke sending its money to the Federal Government which is giving it to the low tax, less educated recepient states who use it subsidized their failed states.
If California only got back from the Feds what it paid to the Feds it would instantaly have a balanced budget.

So progressive taxes are bad?

They're all for redistribution until it hits them personally. 🙂

 

[Red Dawn]

Originally posted by: BoberFett

Originally posted by: charrison

Originally posted by: techs

Originally posted by: Mursilis

Originally posted by: BoberFett

Originally posted by: Mursilis

Originally posted by: RoloMather
This would ideally be a thread with predictions and updates on the US economy.

To start off:

California is going to have a $20B deficit.
http://forums.anandtech.com/me...=2299627&enterthread=y

Is CA just the start?

A $20B deficit in a single budget year? That's just a laugh. The feds can dig that big a hole in a good month! It's like your house is burning down and you're worried about the firefighters tracking mud on your carpet.

California is a state. A big one, sure, but still just one of many. If every state was running the same deficit per capita the aggregate would be a massive hole.

California is a liberal Disneyland which has found it can't pay for its grand vision of utopia. Most states will have to trim their budgets, but will manage to do so without the drama.

Actually California is going broke sending its money to the Federal Government which is giving it to the low tax, less educated recepient states who use it subsidized their failed states.
If California only got back from the Feds what it paid to the Feds it would instantaly have a balanced budget.

So progressive taxes are bad?

They're all for redistribution until it hits them personally. 🙂

And your for paying your fair share until it hits you personally.

 

[charrison]

Originally posted by: Red Dawn

Originally posted by: BoberFett

Originally posted by: charrison

Originally posted by: techs

Originally posted by: Mursilis

Originally posted by: BoberFett

Originally posted by: Mursilis

Originally posted by: RoloMather
This would ideally be a thread with predictions and updates on the US economy.

To start off:

California is going to have a $20B deficit.
http://forums.anandtech.com/me...=2299627&enterthread=y

Is CA just the start?

A $20B deficit in a single budget year? That's just a laugh. The feds can dig that big a hole in a good month! It's like your house is burning down and you're worried about the firefighters tracking mud on your carpet.

California is a state. A big one, sure, but still just one of many. If every state was running the same deficit per capita the aggregate would be a massive hole.

California is a liberal Disneyland which has found it can't pay for its grand vision of utopia. Most states will have to trim their budgets, but will manage to do so without the drama.

Actually California is going broke sending its money to the Federal Government which is giving it to the low tax, less educated recepient states who use it subsidized their failed states.
If California only got back from the Feds what it paid to the Feds it would instantaly have a balanced budget.

So progressive taxes are bad?

They're all for redistribution until it hits them personally. 🙂

And your for paying your fair share until it hits you personally.

but it all comes downt o what is a fair share. According to those that want progressive taxation, california is paying their fair share.

 

[Red Dawn]

Originally posted by: charrison

Originally posted by: Red Dawn

Originally posted by: BoberFett

Originally posted by: charrison

Originally posted by: techs

Originally posted by: Mursilis

Originally posted by: BoberFett

Originally posted by: Mursilis

Originally posted by: RoloMather
This would ideally be a thread with predictions and updates on the US economy.

To start off:

California is going to have a $20B deficit.
http://forums.anandtech.com/me...=2299627&enterthread=y

Is CA just the start?

A $20B deficit in a single budget year? That's just a laugh. The feds can dig that big a hole in a good month! It's like your house is burning down and you're worried about the firefighters tracking mud on your carpet.

California is a state. A big one, sure, but still just one of many. If every state was running the same deficit per capita the aggregate would be a massive hole.

California is a liberal Disneyland which has found it can't pay for its grand vision of utopia. Most states will have to trim their budgets, but will manage to do so without the drama.

Actually California is going broke sending its money to the Federal Government which is giving it to the low tax, less educated recepient states who use it subsidized their failed states.
If California only got back from the Feds what it paid to the Feds it would instantaly have a balanced budget.

So progressive taxes are bad?

They're all for redistribution until it hits them personally. 🙂

And your for paying your fair share until it hits you personally.

but it all comes downt o what is a fair share. According to those that want progressive taxation, california is paying their fair share.

And carrying the less productive states, many whose residents are chiding CA but without the revenue from CA wouldn't have the funds needed to keep their states afloat.

 

[First]

It's getting better and we'll start seeing boom/recovery late in the year (and early next year). More excuses will be made by laymens about how the economy isn't sustainable. 25 years later, rinse and repeat.

 

[PrinceofWands]

Don't know about the rest of the US, but my area is running headlong towards 20% unemployment. Somewhere between 15 & 20 right now.

 

[charrison]

Originally posted by: Red Dawn

but it all comes downt o what is a fair share. According to those that want progressive taxation, california is paying their fair share.

And carrying the less productive states, many whose residents are chiding CA but without the revenue from CA wouldn't have the funds needed to keep their states afloat.[/quote]

The point remains the same, are these people for or against progressive taxation. It is the same no matter if we are talking about wealthy people or states.

 

[Phokus]

Originally posted by: charrison

Originally posted by: techs

Originally posted by: Mursilis

Originally posted by: BoberFett

Originally posted by: Mursilis

Originally posted by: RoloMather
This would ideally be a thread with predictions and updates on the US economy.

To start off:

California is going to have a $20B deficit.
http://forums.anandtech.com/me...=2299627&enterthread=y

Is CA just the start?

A $20B deficit in a single budget year? That's just a laugh. The feds can dig that big a hole in a good month! It's like your house is burning down and you're worried about the firefighters tracking mud on your carpet.

California is a state. A big one, sure, but still just one of many. If every state was running the same deficit per capita the aggregate would be a massive hole.

California is a liberal Disneyland which has found it can't pay for its grand vision of utopia. Most states will have to trim their budgets, but will manage to do so without the drama.

Actually California is going broke sending its money to the Federal Government which is giving it to the low tax, less educated recepient states who use it subsidized their failed states.
If California only got back from the Feds what it paid to the Feds it would instantaly have a balanced budget.

So progressive taxes are bad?

Only in the sense that worthless and uneducated red states take money from the rest of us and aren't grateful in the least.

 

[Red Dawn]

Originally posted by: charrison

Originally posted by: Red Dawn

but it all comes downt o what is a fair share. According to those that want progressive taxation, california is paying their fair share.

And carrying the less productive states, many whose residents are chiding CA but without the revenue from CA wouldn't have the funds needed to keep their states afloat.

The point remains the same, are these people for or against progressive taxation. It is the same no matter if we are talking about wealthy people or states.[/quote]
Hey I love my Rich fellow Americans and appreciate them paying a higher tax burden than us less productive Middle Class Americans:thumbsup:

 

[sandorski]

Originally posted by: charrison

Originally posted by: techs

Originally posted by: Mursilis

Originally posted by: BoberFett

Originally posted by: Mursilis

Originally posted by: RoloMather
This would ideally be a thread with predictions and updates on the US economy.

To start off:

California is going to have a $20B deficit.
http://forums.anandtech.com/me...=2299627&enterthread=y

Is CA just the start?

A $20B deficit in a single budget year? That's just a laugh. The feds can dig that big a hole in a good month! It's like your house is burning down and you're worried about the firefighters tracking mud on your carpet.

California is a state. A big one, sure, but still just one of many. If every state was running the same deficit per capita the aggregate would be a massive hole.

California is a liberal Disneyland which has found it can't pay for its grand vision of utopia. Most states will have to trim their budgets, but will manage to do so without the drama.

Actually California is going broke sending its money to the Federal Government which is giving it to the low tax, less educated recepient states who use it subsidized their failed states.
If California only got back from the Feds what it paid to the Feds it would instantaly have a balanced budget.

So progressive taxes are bad?

Has nothing to do with "Progressive" taxes.

 

[heyheybooboo]

Yup. The economy is really looking up.

Looks like we 'only' lost 500k jobs last month ... that's gotta be at least a 12% improvement right there.

 

[charrison]

Originally posted by: Red Dawn

Originally posted by: charrison

Originally posted by: Red Dawn

but it all comes downt o what is a fair share. According to those that want progressive taxation, california is paying their fair share.

And carrying the less productive states, many whose residents are chiding CA but without the revenue from CA wouldn't have the funds needed to keep their states afloat.

The point remains the same, are these people for or against progressive taxation. It is the same no matter if we are talking about wealthy people or states.

Hey I love my Rich fellow Americans and appreciate them paying a higher tax burden than us less productive Middle Class Americans:thumbsup:
[/quote]

Then quite complaining about california not getting enough fed money back.