Since voters care about crime I think the Democrats should go straight for RoboCop. He wouldn't even need a teleprompter as it could be displayed internally on his visor!
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State of the Union 2024
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HomerJS
Lifer
nakedfrog
No Lifer
MrSquished
Lifer
That's pretty rare. I havent' seen it around here in my time. If someone doesn't want to sell their home to an investor, no, the government doesn't come in and claim eminent domain. People sell willingly, but zoning laws then restrict denser housing from being built there.
No, you need someone coherent. Biden needs to come out today and address this, because Trump and Jesse Waters is gonna run this to NovemberWhat about this guy. Strong leader, macho, bangs lots of chicks of all races.
MrSquished
Lifer
Yes I think it's a stupid strategy to start crowing about 'best economy ever', which does not mean I want to harp on negatives, but to be realistic about what people are facing. To message like some people here say about the greatest economy and with wage increases lower class people are doing great, and ignoring the reality of what people are facing is just as dumb as saying 2020 is better than now.Vox has a pretty good explainer and I believe they stop far short of calling this the best economy of our lifetime.
Biden’s vs. Trump’s economy, in 8 charts
The gaps between perception of the economy and the reality, explained.www.vox.com
Housing costs are far exceeding wage gains. Housing is HISTORICALLY THE MOST UNAFFORDABLE SINCE KEEPING RECORDS. BY FAR:
"As the interactive shows, home prices have soared relative to incomes in a growing number of metro areas. Indeed, among the 100 largest markets in the country, 48 had a price-to-income ratio exceeding 5.0 in 2022, including seven markets with a price-to-income ratio above 8.0. By comparison, 15 markets had price-to-income ratios above 5.0 as recently as 2019 and just five markets had ratios that high in 2000 (Figure 2). With the rapid rise in prices since the beginning of the pandemic, price-to-income ratios have reached all-time highs in 78 of the nation’s 100 largest markets. Only Syracuse had a price-to-income ratio under 3.0 among large markets in 2022. Price-to-income ratios that low were the norm across much of the country in prior decades. Indeed, fully two-thirds of large markets had price-to-income ratios below 3.0 as recently as 2000.
FIGURE 2: HOME PRICE-TO-INCOME RATIOS CONTINUED TO RISE NATIONALLY AND IN MANY LARGE METROS IN 2022
and this reflects across polls, and backed up by data. if people want to keep saying oh this economy is best ever and so so great without integrating housing costs into the factor, you will lose this election. As someone in the business, I have seen it first hand in my area. Not every area is the same but most major metro areas are all in the same boat.
American dream of owning a home is dead, majority of renters say
Exclusive: most renters surveyed by Harris Poll say the areas they live in have become so unaffordable they are ‘barely livable’
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All the available data shows that as a whole, American households are doing fine but they keep shit talking the national economy. Now this is SOP for Repub voters, but it's also spilled over to swing voters and some (D) voters. Not only that, but the "bad vibes" have been incredibly durable until just recently (consumer confidence is creeping up). So the political question is whether Biden's approval ratings will recover in time for November. Repub strategists are no doubt "reading the room," and pivoting to immigration as the fallback option to the economy. There's always this lag effect with the economy and voters; bad news gets absorbed quickly while good news just takes time.
I've enjoyed Vox reporting in the past, and I have no reason to doubt this article. Their premise IMO is that the Biden economy is way better than people say, and at least as good as the Trump economy. So it's horseshit to say they're cherry picking or mis-representing data. The wage growth vs inflation chart comes from the Fed Reserve Bank of Atlanta/US BLS. Is Vox lying? @dank has asked how did real incomes rise in 2021-2022 when inflation was running hot? Answer: it wasn't.
The personal savings rate is indexed to disposable income. Finally CC debt appears to have gone from about $840B to $1040B in five years. That could just be inflation, but I think most of us know people who are putting more on their credit cards lately than anytime since after the Great Recession. But like you said, this also reinforces that people's consumption actions do not back up their "sky is falling" rhetoric.
To be clear, I'm all for "taking the win" and agree there's no strategic value in talking down the economy. But the challenge for the Biden campaign is to convince swing voters that the economy has been resilient and the Fed has engineered a mythical soft landing. Our policies are simply better for Americans, and a fair part of SOTU was focused on that. Screaming "this is the best economy of my lifetime" hasn't worked so far, and I don't think that's gonna resonate with a lot of people.
[DHT]Osiris
Lifer
Or... the debt isn't being incurred on frivolities, but necessary expenses.
Hell I'd wager most people's CC debt is a result of 'big hits' rather than 'I need a new shirt'. I don't care how hot the economy is, if my septic pump fails, it's getting replaced and it it costs a grand it's probably going on CC.
Fenixgoon
Lifer
How many people use their CC for every purchase? I barely use cash.
How much of that debt is carried over vs revolving (fully paid each month)? Since I put everything on my CC, it looks like I have "a lot" of debt, but I pay it in full every month
purbeast0
No Lifer
[DHT]Osiris
Lifer
Well, sure, but people who fully pay each month aren't contributing to the 30% increase in household debt. You can't have an increase in debt if it's not carried, unless I'm misunderstanding what this chart means:
Total balance means like, actual debt being held on CC, right?
This might surprise some of our high rollers here, but a lot of people carry debt, sometimes a lot of it, and not necessarily because they suck with money.
I think the real lesson from this chart, and the reason why it's misleading and shouldn't have been used is this is nominal credit card debt balances. Based purely on inflation adjusted dollars between 2020 and present credit card debt is the same now as it was in 2020. If you look at it as a percentage of GDP, which is the real thing you should look at, it's actually considerably better.
So their chart of 'this is bad for the Biden economy' actually shows a situation that's better than under Trump. Not sure how economically literate that author is.
HomerJS
Lifer
Capt. James T. Kirk is plenty coherent. He over emotes sometimes but nobody's perfect. He also gives epic speeches. Here one on the Constitution. What else would you want from a POTUS?
Speech brings a tear to the eye. Only MLK did better. Republicans could take a lesson.
[DHT]Osiris
Lifer
Sorry, are you saying that inflation has gone up 30% between 2020 and 2024?
What relation is there between the average household and the GDP anyhow? I don't get GDP-adjusted raises every year. I don't even get inflation adjusted raises every year.
Fenixgoon
Lifer
Hooray capitalism, where most of the gains go to the top.
Oh I think you're too high with the 30%. Regardless, here's the BLS calculator. I'm sure the numbers aren't exact but they are close.
If you're talking about aggregate numbers for all CC debt owed by all people in the economy then it makes sense to look at all production by all people in the economy.
Any time you see someone using nominal numbers to compare things over time you want to discount them unless they supply a good reason for doing it. It's usually economic illiteracy or someone trying to pull a fast one.
If you don't like the message, shoot the messenger. 😛 Vox is considered a reliable news source, and "left leaning." This article was meant to argue that Biden's economy is good. The overall tenor of the article might seem a little too "fair and balanced" but it's certainly not a Bidenomics hit piece.
Zorba
Lifer
This is an example of how zoning could be used for good. Don't allow low density crap development near transit stations.
I don't think it's a hit piece at all, although it does have a bit of the NYT Pitchbot vibe to me and I think using nominal CC debt was a mistake.
Zorba
Lifer
But the court is supposed to establish a fair market value, no? They don't just take the land or give you a sub-market valuation for it.
APU_Fusion
Golden Member
If this were a Trump economy there would be 24/7 coverage about the greatest economy in history. Look at job growth, the stock market etc. it seems people in America are convincing themeselves that the Trump years were great because they want to be under dictator. Pure and simple. Trump tells them how to think and to hate the other instead of taking personal responsibility. It is fascism 101. It is sad to watch a nation claiming to love freedom flock to an obvious lying con man. Oh well. If Trump wins my 1.2 million IRA will hit money market immediately. The Great Depression will be rolling in within year. 70% tariffs will se to that. It is a sad thing to watch the uneducated fall for such laughably obvious lies and propaganda. 🤷♂️
[DHT]Osiris
Lifer
Are we talking about the same thing?
Huh? I'm talking CC debt. How on earth does that have a relation to the production of people in the economy? You can buy anything from a Taiwanese teacup to a roof with a cc. People have more CC debt, moreso than wages have gone up unless I'm really missing the fucking boat on some wage increases. Anyone else getting a fuzzy 30-45% wage increase over the last few years?
Seriously, are we talking about the same thing?
BoomerD
No Lifer
If the "low density crap" was there before the transit station was built...as is often the case...
From your chart peak pre-pandemic CC debt was roughtly $855 billion. It then cratered during the pandemic due to stimulus, people not being able to spend, etc., but that's clearly an aberration. So if you just compare it to before the pandemic it's basically in line with inflation.
Our ability to service debt as a nation is essentially based on the sum total of the goods and services we produce. Higher GDP broadly means US citizens can handle more debt.
As per our previous discussions just look at real wages, which account for inflation. And yes, lots of people have gotten large raises in recent years. It sucks that your employer hasn't followed suit.
Zorba
Lifer
There is still a house surrounded by Boeing at Boeing field in Seattle. They didn't want to sell and never have. Same with the Bonnet Creek Area around Disney World.
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