State Department Intelligence Agency Disputes CIA Claim that Iraq Trailers were Mobile Labs

tnitsuj

Diamond Member
May 22, 2003
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From the New York Times


June 26, 2003
Agency Disputes View of Trailers as Labs
By DOUGLAS JEHL

ASHINGTON, June 25 ? The State Department's intelligence division is disputing the Central Intelligence Agency's conclusion that mysterious trailers found in Iraq were for making biological weapons, United States government officials said today.

In a classified June 2 memorandum, the officials said, the department's Bureau of Intelligence and Research said it was premature to conclude that the trailers were evidence of an Iraqi biological weapons program, as President Bush has done. The disclosure of the memorandum is the clearest sign yet of disagreement between intelligence agencies over the assertion, which was produced jointly by the C.I.A. and the Defense Intelligence Agency and made public on May 28 on the C.I.A. Web site. Officials said the C.I.A. and D.I.A. did not consult with other intelligence agencies before issuing the report.

The report on the trailers was initially prepared for the White House, and Mr. Bush has cited it as proof that Iraq indeed had a biological weapons program, as the United States has repeatedly alleged, although it has yet to produce any other conclusive evidence.

In an interview with Polish television on May 30, Mr. Bush cited the trailers as evidence that the United States had "found the weapons of mass destruction" it was looking for. Secretary of State Colin L. Powell echoed that assessment in a public statement the next day, saying that the accuracy of prewar assessments linking Iraqi trailers to a biological weapons program had been borne out by the discovery.

Some intelligence analysts had previously disputed the C.I.A. report, but it had not been known that the C.I.A. report did not reflect an interagency consensus or that any intelligence agency had later objected to its finding.

The State Department bureau raised its objections in a memorandum to Mr. Powell, according to Congressional officials. They said the memorandum was cast as a dissent to the C.I.A. report, and that it said that the evidence found to date did not justify the conclusion that the trailers could have had no other purpose than for use as mobile weapons laboratories.

Richard A. Boucher, the State Department spokesman, could not be reached for comment on the June 2 memorandum to Secretary Powell. An administration official sympathetic to Mr. Powell said the memo put him in an uncomfortable position, but would not characterize Mr. Powell's view of its findings.

The reasons cited in the State Department memorandum to justify its dissent could not be learned. But in interviews earlier this month in Washington and the Middle East, American and British analysts with direct access to the evidence also disputed the C.I.A.'s claims, saying that the mobile units were more likely intended for other purposes and that the evaluation process had been damaged by a rush to judgment.

Administration officials said one argument made in the State Department report was that each of the two trailers and one laboratory discovered by the United States in Iraq could constitute only part of what the C.I.A. report said it believed had been two- or three-trailer systems necessary for the manufacture of chemical weapons. The missing trailers have not been found.

Among the alternative purposes for the trailers that the State Department report described as plausible were that they had been intended for the refueling of Iraqi missiles, one administration official said.

The State Department's Bureau of Intelligence and Research is a small but important agency in the intelligence community. Its principal purpose is to provide the Secretary of State and his top advisers with intelligence analysis independent of other agencies, but it also has a key voice in the drafting of national intelligence estimates and other formal documents that are supposed to reflect the consensus of the intelligence community.

The fact that the C.I.A. and the D.I.A. did not consult with other agencies in producing the so-called white paper reflects a rare but not unknown approach, officials from the intelligence agencies and Congress said. The government's intelligence apparatus spans more than a dozen agencies, and officials usually try to reach consensus before making their findings public.

The exclusion of the State Department's intelligence bureau and other agencies seemed unusual, several government officials said, because of the high-profile subject.

Administration officials said the State Department agency was given no warning that the C.I.A. report was being produced, or made public.

A C.I.A. official defended the process by which the agency reached its conclusion, saying that the C.I.A. and the D.I.A. were most intimately familiar with the physical evidence and human intelligence related to the trailers, and were thus most qualified to issue public findings. But a Defense Department official acknowledged today that some analysts in the D.I.A. in Iraq had also objected to the conclusions.

The C.I.A. has said publicly that its initial information about the use of mobile trailers as biological weapons laboratories came from a former Iraqi scientist, and that the discovery of the trailers appeared to have confirmed intelligence details that he provided.

"We didn't shop that paper around because we were the ones who were most knowledgeable about it," the C.I.A. official said. "We were the ones who knew from a former Iraqi scientist what to expect, and we didn't have to ask a handful of people in small agencies."

But administration officials sympathetic to the State Department said that the department's intelligence bureau felt it had been deliberately shut out of the process. The intelligence bureau has been more skeptical than the C.I.A. and D.I.A. on matters related to Iraq's suspected illicit weapons program and its ties to terrorism.

An intelligence official sympathetic to the C.I.A. view said the State Department intelligence bureau's skepticism had been well known and that seeking its input on the white paper would have served no useful purpose.

The C.I.A. official said the State Department document was an internal memorandum and that it had not been read by George Tenet, the director of central intelligence, or other officials at the agency.

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AndrewR

Lifer
Oct 9, 1999
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Ah, yes. The State Department -- best intelligence anywhere.

They need to stick to political/military affairs.
 

charrison

Lifer
Oct 13, 1999
17,033
1
81
Originally posted by: AndrewR
Ah, yes. The State Department -- best intelligence anywhere.

They need to stick to political/military affairs.

Dont forget unnamed state department intel. IF these trailers were for making hydrogen, lets see them make hydrogen.
 

BaliBabyDoc

Lifer
Jan 20, 2001
10,737
0
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Dont forget unnamed state department intel. IF these trailers were for making hydrogen, lets see them make hydrogen.

If these trailers were for making bioweapons, let's see them make bioweapons . . .
rolleye.gif
 

tnitsuj

Diamond Member
May 22, 2003
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Originally posted by: BaliBabyDoc
Dont forget unnamed state department intel. IF these trailers were for making hydrogen, lets see them make hydrogen.

If these trailers were for making bioweapons, let's see them make bioweapons . . .
rolleye.gif

I think they already proved they can't do that. Thier is no provision for high temperature steam...the CIA is working on the assumption that thier is a seperate steam generation unit which they haven't found yet. Otherwise it would be impractical to make biological agents in the trailer.
 

etech

Lifer
Oct 9, 1999
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Among the alternative purposes for the trailers that the State Department report described as plausible were that they had been intended for the refueling of Iraqi missiles, one administration official said.

Why would you use a fermentor to refuel a missile?
 

charrison

Lifer
Oct 13, 1999
17,033
1
81
Originally posted by: BaliBabyDoc
Dont forget unnamed state department intel. IF these trailers were for making hydrogen, lets see them make hydrogen.

If these trailers were for making bioweapons, let's see them make bioweapons . . .
rolleye.gif

Touche. Either way lets find out what they are used for. If they cannot be used for bioweapon reasearch or production, then hydrogen should be easily produced if that is what they are designed for.
 

BaliBabyDoc

Lifer
Jan 20, 2001
10,737
0
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Touche. Either way lets find out what they are used for. If they cannot be used for bioweapon reasearch or production, then hydrogen should be easily produced if that is what they are designed for.
It might depend on how their defense/military infrastructure works. If it's anything like ours these maybe prototypes #121 and #122 which are ten years behind, 200% overbudget, and fail to meet specs. If they are old purchases from the UK, then they might be parts b/c Saddam's French/Russian suppliers sux and Saddam blew a wad of dough on tacky art and his slimeball children.
 

charrison

Lifer
Oct 13, 1999
17,033
1
81
Originally posted by: BaliBabyDoc
Touche. Either way lets find out what they are used for. If they cannot be used for bioweapon reasearch or production, then hydrogen should be easily produced if that is what they are designed for.
It might depend on how their defense/military infrastructure works. If it's anything like ours these maybe prototypes #121 and #122 which are ten years behind, 200% overbudget, and fail to meet specs. If they are old purchases from the UK, then they might be parts b/c Saddam's French/Russian suppliers sux and Saddam blew a wad of dough on tacky art and his slimeball children.

Had these trailers been open to inspection and not hidden, maybe there would not be a problem at all.
 

etech

Lifer
Oct 9, 1999
10,597
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BBD, you're a doctor, how much hydrogen would a 30 gallon fermentor produce in a day?

30 gallon picked entirely at random since I haven't seen the size mentioned in the articles.
 

zantac

Senior member
Jun 15, 2003
226
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Originally posted by: AndrewR
Ah, yes. The State Department -- best intelligence anywhere.

They need to stick to political/military affairs.

The Department of State has pretty good intel. I believe that it its ranked #8/14 on Intelligence in the US gov't. with #7 being The Department of the Army, the Department of the Navy, and the Department of the Air Force. #1 of course being the CIA.
 

BaliBabyDoc

Lifer
Jan 20, 2001
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BBD, you're a doctor, how much hydrogen would a 30 gallon fermentor produce in a day?

30 gallon picked entirely at random since I haven't seen the size mentioned in the articles.

Dude, I'm not that kind of doctor. Any winemaker would be infinitely more qualified. But here's a good site for people interested in such things . . . fermenter with AV animation. Not to be too glib but this fermenter looks just like the one in Iraq.

American WMD potential at the local lib' arts college
As a team of two students, Aaron Barnes and Luki Goldschmidt, and the help of one faculty member Dr. Andrew D. Brabban we're going to build a laboratory microbial fermenter during the Fall and Winter quarter of the academic year 2000-2001.

My best guess to your question would be . . . damn if I know. It would be a function of the method/efficiency of your hydrogen production system. If it was my operation I would use helium b/c hydrogen go boom. I've used NaOH and water to produce hydrogen gas (demonstration for schoolkids). Obviously, that's not very efficient.

The problem with these mobile labs?? is the US/UK claim there's no conceivable use other than bioweapon production. After that was refuted it became . . . well why hide it if it's used for approved purposes.
 

da loser

Platinum Member
Oct 9, 1999
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perhaps this link has been posted before http://www.odci.gov/cia/reports/iraqi_mobile_plants/index.html discusses the possible uses.

further i've been following the google groups, and in the sci.military.moderated forum

http://groups.google.com/groups?dq=...e=UTF-8&safe=off&group=sci.military.moderated

i'm not sure where he gets his info, but he in any case," these vehicles are
definitely not the Marconi ones. The manufacturer's nameplate (seen
here:
http://www.odci.gov/cia/reports/iraqi_mobile_plants/images/manufacturers_plate.jpg
) clearly states they were made in 2002 by a local state-owned Iraqi
company called Al-Naser Al-Adheem State Co. (formerly known as the
Daura facility of SEHEE).

According to UNSCOM, this company has previously manufactured
biological equipment for the Al-Hakam facility, which is where much of
Iraq's anthrax research work was done. The tanks on these trucks (1000
L / 220 ga, double walled chilled/heated air-stirred tanks) closely
resemble some 22 (mainly made at the same factory) previously found by
UNSCOM, which in 1998 the Iraqis admitted were for brewing and
transporting anthrax - but only after the discovery of multiple
anthrax traces and the delivery dockets."

Either way, it's going to come down to iraqi scientists coming out and saying what it really is. i bet we'll get some more coming out telling us what's up. If i was part of the iraqi resistance, i'd be shooting some of these scientists.
 

DaveSimmons

Elite Member
Aug 12, 2001
40,730
670
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it's going to come down to iraqi scientists coming out and saying what it really is.
Which unfortunately doesn't mean much (either way) without physical evidence -- Iraqis have been willing to lie in the past for the hope of citizenship / asylum / cash.

We may never know exactly what Saddam was working on, or what kind of arsenal he had, though the arsenal was clearly much smaller than the Bush administration stated (and believed?) it was prior to the war.
 

etech

Lifer
Oct 9, 1999
10,597
0
0
Originally posted by: BaliBabyDoc
BBD, you're a doctor, how much hydrogen would a 30 gallon fermentor produce in a day?

30 gallon picked entirely at random since I haven't seen the size mentioned in the articles.

Dude, I'm not that kind of doctor. Any winemaker would be infinitely more qualified. But here's a good site for people interested in such things . . . fermenter with AV animation. Not to be too glib but this fermenter looks just like the one in Iraq.

American WMD potential at the local lib' arts college
As a team of two students, Aaron Barnes and Luki Goldschmidt, and the help of one faculty member Dr. Andrew D. Brabban we're going to build a laboratory microbial fermenter during the Fall and Winter quarter of the academic year 2000-2001.

My best guess to your question would be . . . damn if I know. It would be a function of the method/efficiency of your hydrogen production system. If it was my operation I would use helium b/c hydrogen go boom. I've used NaOH and water to produce hydrogen gas (demonstration for schoolkids). Obviously, that's not very efficient.

The problem with these mobile labs?? is the US/UK claim there's no conceivable use other than bioweapon production. After that was refuted it became . . . well why hide it if it's used for approved purposes.


That's the question I have BBD, has it been refuted? Fermentation seems to be the most inefficient way that I can think of to produce hydrogen. You can buy a small (microwave) size hydrogen generator that would be simpler, more reliable and more efficient than a fermentation process.
A refinery of which Iraq has at least one produces hydrogen as part of its process. Putting that into cylinders and using them would also be simpler, more reliable and more efficient.
Could Iraq have been using a fermentor? I'm not even convinced that it would produce enough hydrogen to make that a viable process especially when you consider the much more likely alternatives.

The question still remains, why have mobile fermentors?
 

CaptnKirk

Lifer
Jul 25, 2002
10,053
0
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Brittan announced that they had manufactured Hydrogen Gas Mobile Generator Lorries (Their word for trucks) and sold them to
Iraq around that timeframe.
They were developed for filling weather baloons - NOT MISSLE FUEL, Rocket fuel Hydrogen is liquid &
cryogenic, - 423 degrees F Liquid Hydrogen
Production of Hydrogen gas is much easier than conversion to Liquid Hydrogen, and also much, much cheaper.

Helium is also much more expensive to produce than Hydrogen, and is not as efficient as a lighter than air lifting medium.
Hydrogen has nearly 4 times the lifting capacity of Helium, but is inherrantly much more dangerous, as the explosive mixture
ratio spans from 7/100 to 93/100 and any mixture within that range is apt to blow.

The Hydrogen Generator is the most likely use for the mobile equipment, as the other components nesecessary for a
functional bio-weapon lab are not evident in this apparatus.
 

BaliBabyDoc

Lifer
Jan 20, 2001
10,737
0
0
The Hydrogen Generator is the most likely use for the mobile equipment, as the other compoinents nesecessary for a functional bio-weapon lab are not evident in this apparatus

The Bushies have the greatest trouble with that issue. Hydrogen production is far more plausible than bioweapon production. The mobile bioweapons lab is plausible in and of itself (considering the nature of the regime) but the evidence to date does not support such a conclusion. The vast majority of this program MUST (if it exists) be integrated into civilian programs (university laboratories, petrochemical industry, agriculture).
 

LunarRay

Diamond Member
Mar 2, 2003
9,993
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BBD,
If we were able to venture to our sun and snoop about we'd still not be able to find the reason for hydrogen...
 

Moonbeam

Elite Member
Nov 24, 1999
73,110
6,312
126
Not to be picky CaptnKirk, but I don't think hydrogen has four times the lifting capacity of helium. Helium weighs 0.1785 grams per liter. Hydrogen weighs 0.08988 grams per liter. Nitrogen weighs 1.2506g So a liter of helium can lift 1.0721 grams and a liter of hydrogen can lift 1.16072 grams only .08862grams more, or about 8.3% more. Hydrogen is, however, four times lighter than helium. I think this is right.

Edit: Helium is two times heaver than hydrogen but provides 91.7 or 92% of the lift.

Edit2: Helium is 4 times heaver. I was right the first time as Kirk has now reminded me. I got confused between atomic mass and number.


 

tnitsuj

Diamond Member
May 22, 2003
5,446
0
76
Originally posted by: AndrewR
Ah, yes. The State Department -- best intelligence anywhere.

They need to stick to political/military affairs.
Intelligence gathering is one of the primary roles of the State Department. I am not sure what you are talking about.