stupid govt they forgot to add students as unemployed...along with retirees and newborn babies. Holy crap 65% unemployment. SELL SELL SELL.
Phokus
Lifer
- Nov 20, 1999
- 22,994
- 779
- 126
The unemployment rate is a horrible way to gauge the state of the economy.
1. It doesn't take into account people who fall out of the labor market. For example, if i'm an computer programmer and the programming market disappears and i can't find another job, and i go back to school, i'm no longer considered 'unemployed'
I read somewhere that when the economy is good, business schools have a hard time recruiting people to their mba programs. When the economy is bad, b-schools are flooded with mba applications.
2. It doesn't take into account people who take menial jobs to replace their white collar jobs. Using the above example, if i was a programmer but then my job was eliminated and i can't find similar work and i go to work for home depot, the unemployment rate doesn't reflect it.
From what we've seen, wages have been depressed meaning that people are being re-employed, but through crappier jobs.
But your argument falls flat when it is pointed out that Federal unemployment numbers are what have been used for years to gauge the level of unemployment. These are the numbers that analysts have used in evaluating unemployment and deciding whether or not those levels are bad, good or indifferent. From what I know, which is very little, anything below 6% is not so bad.
Why would a 5.4% level of unemployment be worse now than it was 10 years ago? All those starving college kids weren't counted then, why should they be counted now?
But your argument falls flat when it is pointed out that Federal unemployment numbers are what have been used for years to gauge the level of unemployment. These are the numbers that analysts have used in evaluating unemployment and deciding whether or not those levels are bad, good or indifferent. From what I know, which is very little, anything below 6% is not so bad.[/quote]
Frictional unemployment is counted as part of the unemployment rate.
As far as the actual measurement of the unemployment rate goes, I understand that the Bureau of Labor and Statistics does phone surveys to determine unemployment. With a large enough sample, the sample statistics become very similar to the population statistics.
Hehehehehe
There was a report out yesterday that the Government even admitted their numbers are all wrong.
Why bother posting WRONG numbers???
I think the US economy is going to collapse soon. Not tomorrow soon, but I'd say 20 years soon.
Our standard of living has increased beyond a sustainable level given the vast amount of equally capable competition globally. What company is going to want to pay some fat American $50,000 to do a job that someone in China or India will do for $10,000? No matter how good you are, you can be sure that a company can find a comparable worker from abroad that is willing to work for less money. They will work for less than you possibly can due to exchange rates/cost of living.
I think people will have to be content living much more modest lives. I believe political correctness is partly to blame because our country's own people won't let us use the lead we currently have to prevent us from being overtaken. So we will be overtaken.
It most certainly will with an attitude such as yours. With proper foresight and planning, a lot can be avoided. Though convincing people to work together on that issue is by far the tallest hurdle of the process.
So in 20 years our economy will collapse? I take it you consulted a magic eight ball and got " Outlook Not So Good" response.
Explain yourself better.
What I'm talking about is a bare fundamental of capitalism and economics. Someone else is willing to do the same job that you'll do. They'll work for much cheaper.
Got it?
Any trick that you can pull to save money, they can use also... and you can never escape the fact that the cost of living is cheaper over there and the exchange rate is more favorable for them to be the workers.
I want you to name a country that knew its economy would collapse in 20 years. Hell, even in the US, people had no idea in the roaring 20's that our economy was going to collapse in less than 10 years. The USSR had no idea either. Back in the dot com boom of the late 90's, nobody knew that the bubble would burst. It did.
You make it sound like people can always see these things coming, and that you'll always be safe and secure. That's not reality, bud. Once it begins to happen, it's already too late, and you're just along for the ride.
I never said that "I know" it is going to happen. I said that "I think" it is going to happen.
I see the odds stacked firmly against us, I see overseas labor happily working for a wage that we could not possibly support ourselves with, I see people being fat and lazy here and doing nothing but focusing on their personal greed, and I see us marching blindly behind a completely inept president who is leading us down a dead-end street.
In addition, our citizens have become too politically correct and soft to support military action that supports our economy.
I think the writing is on the wall. The US can't sustain our artificially inflated standard of living. There isn't much we can do economically to prevent everyone else from taking our jobs, and our citizens won't support military action to control our economic enemies.
StageLeft
No Lifer
- Sep 29, 2000
- 70,150
- 5
- 0
Yes, employment numbers are not 100% accurate. They are impossible to get totally accurate, but unemployment is not a problem in this country. Look to Canada or Europe, where it's generally much higher, then come back and complain.
FWIW of all the people I know (and no, I'm not just talking about co-workers), all of them who want to be working currently are. A neighbour recently got laid off and had to kill time at home depot for two months, but now he's back doing IT, like he wanted to before. Once unemployment gets too low (not sure what a perfect figure would be) you've got problems anyway because people are not hungry for work. If our economy had .5% unemployment it would probably suck.
FWIW of all the people I know (and no, I'm not just talking about co-workers
), all of them who want to be working currently are. A neighbour recently got laid off and had to kill time at home depot for two months, but now he's back doing IT, like he wanted to before. Once unemployment gets too low (not sure what a perfect figure would be) you've got problems anyway because people are not hungry for work. If our economy had .5% unemployment it would probably suck.
StageLeft
No Lifer
- Sep 29, 2000
- 70,150
- 5
- 0
Possibly. Somebody--not me--could surely refute some of your points, but there is something to be said for them. We've been living the good life for so long (even with the stock market getting smacked at the beginning of the decade we're still pretty much doing very well) that people just expect it to continue on indefinitely I should think.
I should note that in regards to foreign labour, as places like India take more and more jobs their economies will get better, and before you know it a guy who used to work for $10k is now requiring $15k for the same job. Outsourcing is scary because it's got the theorietical potential to really screw a lot of things up, but at the same time a lot of people have studied it and are not overly worried about it. In some shape or form we've had outsourcing for thousands of years (import/export). I think an economy is driven in huge part by its politics and social system, and the west still has the best ones catered towards wealth, at least based upon current rules. England, for example, was relatively rich 500 years ago and is still relatively rich compared to the rest of the world.
That's true to an extent, but you have to take the numbers into consideration. The USA only has 280 million people, while India alone has 1.06 billion people. And China has 1.3 billion people. So our 2 main outsourcing countries have 7.6 times as many people as us. It will have a huge effect on the US while only a small effect on those very populous countries.
It's like emptying a glass of water into a bucket. The glass will go empty long before that bucket gets full.
No. You are making it sound like you know something will happen within 20 years. I am saying that it isn't possible to make that quess. People don't know. Some people made predictions that ended up being right but plenty of people made predictions that were wrong. In '89, I wrote a research paper on Japan's economy since WWII and I predicted their economy would collapse in 10 years (it did like a year later), but no real economists were making that prediction. Predicting 20 years into the future is an exercise in futility.
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