I've posted several articles on Bush's plan to privatize Social Security. I read the following piece on Social Security in this morning's Star-Ledger. The facts are simple and just as the links I've posted and several posts above this point out, Bush's schemes are for the benefit of the very few at the cost of all the rest of us.
There is no crisis in Social Security. There are only very rich, very greedy people who can't stomach the thought that the rest of us might be able to enjoy a secure retirement with money they can't get their greedy hands on.
I really can't understand how anyone can defend this crime Bush is trying to perpetrate on American workers unless you're one of the very few who are in line to benefit from Bush's latest plan for economic disaster.
From NJ.com
Social Security chatter fails truth test
Monday, February 07, 2005
In the fog that surrounds the debate over Social Security, one fact stands out from all others:
George W. Bush's plan to privatize part of the system will do nothing to remedy its projected long-term shortfall. Nada. No way.
An administration official briefing reporters last week admitted as much. And for a more independent assessment, there's the analysis last December by Goldman Sachs, the New York investment firm. It advised clients that it's
"the switch to price indexing from wage indexing that restores Social Security to solvency, not the implementation of a personal saving account system."
Actually, the privatization plan, by taking money out of the annual benefit pool, would worsen the shortfall. But not to worry. Bush has a plan to cover privatization -- borrow $1 trillion to $2 trillion.
However, that would leave us with the gap still unplugged and with up to $2 trillion more debt. So how does Bush close the gap? By using the switch in calculating the annual benefit boost as spelled out in the Goldman Sachs analysis -- a switch from wage to price-based indexing. And since prices tend to rise less than wages, that would reduce the annual guaranteed benefit for each retiree.
Technically, Bush never explicitly claimed privatization -- now euphemized as "personal" counts -- would plug the gap. But that's disingenuous. Privatization was peddled to the public simultaneously with the fiction that Social Security is in "crisis" and going "bust." They were a matched set, the problem and the cure -- or at least they were meant to be seen as such.
And that's typical. For almost nothing about the Bush administration's characterization of Social Security or its proposed cure meets the strict truth test. Not the "crisis" or "bankruptcy" claims, the "ownership" promise, or Bush's assertion that "everything is on the table" when it comes to solutions.
For starters, there are the numbers the administration uses: Someone seems to have cooked the books.
Bush's "crisis" claims rest on the assertion that Social Security income will begin running short of annual benefit costs in 2018 and the system will go "bankrupt" in 2042. Over the next 75 years, Bush contends, it will face a shortfall of $10 trillion to $11 trillion. But that's not how the Social Security Trustees see it. They've estimated the shortfall at far less -- $3.7 trillion, or less than 1 percent of estimated Gross Domestic Product over the same period. (Actually, it's Bush's over-the-top tax cuts that will drain roughly $10 trillion, maybe more, in federal income over the period).
As for "bankruptcy" in 2042, outside studies have calculated that even with no change, the system would still be able to pay 70 percent to 80 percent of promised benefits at that date -- even as late as 2052 by one estimate.
Then there's the "everything on the table" claim. Don't buy it. Bush took pains in his State of the Union Message to take off the table the one proposal that would cure any shortfall -- more revenue. It could be done by raising the payroll tax rate that now finances the system or, even better and more equitably, by raising the ceiling (now $90,000) on the amount of income subject to the payroll levy. Some Republicans already have suggestedthe latter remedy.
Finally, privatization is being sold as a centerpiece of Bush's "ownership" society. It's voluntary, it's yours, you can do what you want with it, and the government can't touch it.
Well, not quite.
Investments, it now appears, would be managed by government-appointed overseers and investment choices would be limited (wisely) to prevent high-stakes gambling in the market. Folks opting for the risk-or-reward gamble involved in private accounts would have to show earnings of more than 3 percent to beat the regular Social Security benefit. Anything less and they'd be net losers.
What happens to the amount up to 3 percent? The government keeps it to help finance the whole cockamamie operation.
All of which raises this question: Since privatization won't solve the problem, why has Bush put himself and Congress through this wringer?
Hard to say. History sheds a bit of light on the mystery, however.
Republican conservative hostility to Social Security dates back to its birth 70 years ago. And while the program's success has muted the opposition, it has never buried it. It still lives in the fever swamps of the far right. Two decades ago, in a paper written for the libertarian Cato Institute, economists Stuart Butler and Peter Germanis proposed that opponents adopt a new approach to remaking Social Security in a conservative image, something they labeled, ironically, a "Leninist" strategy.
The trick, they argued, is to recruit outside forces not normally interested in Social Security by offering them a financial stake in change -- "the banks, insurance companies and other institutions that will gain. ... In doing so we will weaken the coalition for retaining or expanding the current system." And that Bush has succeeded in doing. Wall Street is salivating at the prospect of billions in payroll taxes that would be poured into stocks and bonds if Bush gets his way.
It's a comfort to know that at least some folks might be winners in the great Social Security grab.
John Farmer is The Star-Ledger's national political correspondent.