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Speculation: Zen 4 (EPYC 4 "Genoa", Ryzen 6000)

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What do you expect with Zen 4?


  • Total voters
    263

NostaSeronx

Diamond Member
Sep 18, 2011
3,277
816
136
I hope you aren’t playing the lottery!
Posted "bring up" and launch times to get the general time-frame between the two points.

The data indicates;
1. A launch within the year is common if the bring-up is posted in Q1.
2. A launch outside the year is common if the bring-up is posted in Q3 and later.

Given Feb 2021 being the date of first mention of bring up. Taken is a launch within October 2021 through March 2022.
 

DrMrLordX

Lifer
Apr 27, 2000
17,657
6,649
136
Because (according to leaks, so treat accordingly) Warhol is supposed to be the next desktop release.
Previous leaks had Warhol as a stopgap product before Raphael which would launch on the same cadence as Vermeer. The only reason why any of that would change is that:

a). AMD is selling the heck out of Vermeer, giving them added incentive to release nothing until supply stabilizes enough to meet the insane demand (which, admittedly, is starting to stabilize now, somewhat) and/or
b). Alder Lake may fail to outperform Vermeer on enough key metrics that AMD has no need to react with a full generational upgrade

All of AMD's material in the past - stuff that isn't a leak - has indicated that their progress will be Zen -> Zen+ -> Zen2 -> Zen3 -> Zen4 -> Zen5, with Zen5 being an outlier. The typically-accepted "cadence" for this progress is 15-18 months between products, though I have observed in the past that zen -> zen+ didn't follow that cadence, and that AMD has been dragging their feet a bit on desktop releases. Regardless, they have never indicated that there was a Zen3+ product anywhere in that release schedule, or that it would have its own full position in their launch schedule. If they chose to launch a product like Warhol, it would be a stopgap to react to an Intel release and/or help them establish and bugfix the AM5 platform.

According to AMD's own schedule, the latest Raphael should show up in Q1 2022. Originally Raphael/Zen4 should have/could have been a 2021 product, though the lengthy delays involved with the Vermeer launch have naturally pushed that back.
 
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lobz

Golden Member
Feb 10, 2017
1,767
2,284
136
So, somehow your comment got swallowed and I only saw the reply. Basically, AMD isn’t delayed. They could launch Raphael the first half of this year if they had to. However, this is simply not a game that you play. This is true for any industry, and by the way, market position has little to do with it.




Nosta, like most folks (probably), I love you, but I hope you aren’t playing the lottery! 🤣. I am actually sending much love your way, however, because I know you are a good person and your heart is in the right place 😊.
They could 100% NOT launch Raphael in 2 months. If you meant 'could have', well, not according to roadmaps from well over a year ago where Warhol's already been the successor to Vermeer. AMD has very smartly used how Intel's been notoriously destroying its reputation and already got away with at least 3 delayed launches without a scratch, I'd say.
 

swilli89

Golden Member
Mar 23, 2010
1,538
1,143
136
So, somehow your comment got swallowed and I only saw the reply. Basically, AMD isn’t delayed. They could launch Raphael the first half of this year if they had to. However, this is simply not a game that you play. This is true for any industry, and by the way, market position has little to do with it.




Nosta, like most folks (probably), I love you, but I hope you aren’t playing the lottery! 🤣. I am actually sending much love your way, however, because I know you are a good person and your heart is in the right place 😊.
Nosta is the best
 

DrMrLordX

Lifer
Apr 27, 2000
17,657
6,649
136
They could 100% NOT launch Raphael in 2 months.
Indeed. Commercial DDR5 DIMMs aren't even ready.

AM5 + DDR5 is going to be expensive to begin with. I can easily see Warhol and Raphael overlapping and since they are on different nodes producing one does not harm production of the other.
That is an interesting possibility. Warhol could keep AM4 running for awhile to help people who had wanted Vermeer buy product for existing boards. Vermeer supplies are still pretty sparse; a quick glance at pcpartpicker shows the 5800x for $449 and the 5950X for $1200+ on Amazon. And that's all you can get. Demand for AM4 CPUs is still very strong, so AMD could conceivably do Warhol as a minor refresh to help OEMs clear board inventory out of the channel while simultaneously rolling out AM5 product in limited quantity.
 

eek2121

Golden Member
Aug 2, 2005
1,220
1,276
136
Previous leaks had Warhol as a stopgap product before Raphael which would launch on the same cadence as Vermeer. The only reason why any of that would change is that:

a). AMD is selling the heck out of Vermeer, giving them added incentive to release nothing until supply stabilizes enough to meet the insane demand (which, admittedly, is starting to stabilize now, somewhat) and/or
b). Alder Lake may fail to outperform Vermeer on enough key metrics that AMD has no need to react with a full generational upgrade

All of AMD's material in the past - stuff that isn't a leak - has indicated that their progress will be Zen -> Zen+ -> Zen2 -> Zen3 -> Zen4 -> Zen5, with Zen5 being an outlier. The typically-accepted "cadence" for this progress is 15-18 months between products, though I have observed in the past that zen -> zen+ didn't follow that cadence, and that AMD has been dragging their feet a bit on desktop releases. Regardless, they have never indicated that there was a Zen3+ product anywhere in that release schedule, or that it would have its own full position in their launch schedule. If they chose to launch a product like Warhol, it would be a stopgap to react to an Intel release and/or help them establish and bugfix the AM5 platform.

According to AMD's own schedule, the latest Raphael should show up in Q1 2022. Originally Raphael/Zen4 should have/could have been a 2021 product, though the lengthy delays involved with the Vermeer launch have naturally pushed that back.
AMD is selling the heck out of Vermeer. It has been sold out since release. They sell every chip they make. They also have many reasons to wait on moving to 5nm. Apple taking up most of the capacity is one of those reasons.

It would be incredibly odd for AMD to drop a mid cycle refresh, so Warhol has to be something else.

One thought that occurred to me is that Warhol might be used in lower end Zen 3 chips. 6nm should be cheaper to produce than 7nm.
 

eek2121

Golden Member
Aug 2, 2005
1,220
1,276
136
2022:

Server: Genoa - 5nm “Zen 4” SP5
Desktop: Warhol - 6nm Zen3+ AM4 DDR4 PCIE4
Mobile: Rembrandt 6nm Zen 3+ Navi2/7nm Barcelo Vega7 (similar to Cezanne/Lucienne) FP7r2DDR5

2023:

Server: ???
Desktop: Raphael - 5nm "Zen 4" AM5 DDR5 PCIE5
Mobile: Phoenix - 5nm "Zen 4" FP8 DDR5 Navi3?

Genoa and Raphael get a new 6nm IO die with PCIE5/DDR5 support. Mobile variants use LPDDR5.
 
Last edited:

andermans

Member
Sep 11, 2020
84
78
51
2022:

Server: Genoa - 5nm “Zen 4” SP5
Desktop: Warhol - 6nm Zen3+ AM4 DDR4 PCIE4
Mobile: Rembrandt 6nm Zen 3+ Navi2/7nm Barcelo Vega7 (similar to Cezanne/Lucienne) FP7r2DDR5

2023:

Server: ???
Desktop: Raphael - 5nm "Zen 4" AM5 DDR5 PCIE5
Mobile: Phoenix - 5nm "Zen 4" FP8 DDR5 Navi3?

Genoa and Raphael get a new 6nm IO die with PCIE5/DDR5 support. Mobile variants use LPDDR5.
What are you basing this on? I thought all leaks up till now firmly put Genoa and Raphael in 2022.
 

eek2121

Golden Member
Aug 2, 2005
1,220
1,276
136
What are you basing this on? I thought all leaks up till now firmly put Genoa and Raphael in 2022.
Multiple sources and pieces of info that leaked this year. I have been digging. Raphael might land at the end of 2022. Warhol is Q4 of this year. Everything I have read indicates Genoa is 2022 and Raphael is 2023. Warhol will have performance uplift, not just clocks either. Threadripper may be Zen 3+.

Somewhere Genoa might launch in 2023 as well, but I doubt that. AMD will need Genoa for Sapphire Rapids.

Fun fact: both Genoa and Sapphire Rapids have a TDP approaching 400W (!).

EDIT: one leak suggest Warhol will be >15% faster than Vermeer.
 
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LightningZ71

Senior member
Mar 10, 2017
877
829
136
For Warhol to be at 15%+ of Vermeer while still being on DDR4, it would need some significant cache improvements. 6nm isn't a major density improvement, so the change would likely have to relate to cache latencies. Maybe they will expand the L2 cache a bit.
 
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Gideon

Golden Member
Nov 27, 2007
1,429
2,875
136
For Warhol to be at 15%+ of Vermeer while still being on DDR4, it would need some significant cache improvements. 6nm isn't a major density improvement, so the change would likely have to relate to cache latencies. Maybe they will expand the L2 cache a bit.
Sunny Cove expands L2 a lot, yet it does very little. This kind of uplift would require massive changes not just some cache tweaks
 

DrMrLordX

Lifer
Apr 27, 2000
17,657
6,649
136
One more leak that people may or may not know about: Genoa is expected to enter mass production in April 2022.
No surprises there. AMD sat on Milan for a long time by industry standards. ODM sales to hyperscalars probably ate up a ton of AMD's N7 allocation throughout 2020. That's where the real money's at anyway, no matter how highly-priced AM4 SKUs are or how well they sell. Anyway, AMD has been sampling Genoa already (in all probability) and the hyperscalars are eagre to get a taste of that too. AMD's plan from the start for Zen was to snap up as much server market share as possible. Committing as much of their N5 allocation as possible to server is how it's done.
 

zir_blazer

Golden Member
Jun 6, 2013
1,048
273
136
No surprises there. AMD sat on Milan for a long time by industry standards. ODM sales to hyperscalars probably ate up a ton of AMD's N7 allocation throughout 2020. That's where the real money's at anyway, no matter how highly-priced AM4 SKUs are or how well they sell. Anyway, AMD has been sampling Genoa already (in all probability) and the hyperscalars are eagre to get a taste of that too. AMD's plan from the start for Zen was to snap up as much server market share as possible. Committing as much of their N5 allocation as possible to server is how it's done.
I recall some years ago ServeTheHome mentioning hyperscalers having Skylake-E in production servers like half a year before its official launch, and something similar happened recently with Milan. They were already on production environments half a year before official launch dates, making them maybe a bit meaningless because you don't really know when they began shipping the first production stepping then just delaying the launch due to not having enough supplies for general availability.
I suppose that you can get some clues from Linux or other open source projects about when they get support for a new platform, since they usually end up leaking important stuff when they commit patches, so they may be "just in time" instead of too early.
 

yuri69

Member
Jul 16, 2013
136
161
116
OK, since Milan was ready and shipping back in 2020. Why did AMD delay the launch? They delayed it so much it didn't make the announced 2020 release by almost a quarter. All those "2020 Milan" roadmaps were useless - even those presented even in March 2020...

The Milan delay hurt AMD's PR image of a rock-solid roadmap execution.
 

moinmoin

Platinum Member
Jun 1, 2017
2,673
3,478
136
Can somebody tell me what's the opposite of paper launch is called? Like it's pretty much available but not officially launched yet? AMD did it with Milan (aside plenty customers STH also got its hands on it months before the launch), Intel did it with 11700K.
 

lobz

Golden Member
Feb 10, 2017
1,767
2,284
136
OK, since Milan was ready and shipping back in 2020. Why did AMD delay the launch? They delayed it so much it didn't make the announced 2020 release by almost a quarter. All those "2020 Milan" roadmaps were useless - even those presented even in March 2020...

The Milan delay hurt AMD's PR image of a rock-solid roadmap execution.
Because why launch something that you are not allocating to 'regular' customers yet? You don't wanna be Intel for sure.
 

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