Question Speculation: RDNA3 + CDNA2 Architectures Thread

[uzzi38]

Man I have been dying to make this one for a while now.

First rumours for RDNA3 are here so new thread time!

Just going to start off with this one for now: kopite7kimi on Twitter: "@VideoCardz Ah, I mean a simple mcm design with 10240 cores is not enough. Because the lift from RDNA2 to RDNA3 is much bigger than from RDNA1 to RDNA2. We should expect many big improvements in GFX11. 🤔" / Twitter

 

[GodisanAtheist]

RX780M seems to have a Timespy score up to 25% higher than the 680M

https://twitter.com/x/status/1620653776028815361

- Tom's claims the the result is within spitting distance of the laptop 2050. I have a laptop with a 1050 4GB in it and while old and slow by modern standards it games remarkably well with most indie / non-AAA titles even today, and does fine with pre-2015 era AAA stuff as well.

 

[insertcarehere]

- Tom's claims the the result is within spitting distance of the laptop 2050. I have a laptop with a 1050 4GB in it and while old and slow by modern standards it games remarkably well with most indie / non-AAA titles even today, and does fine with pre-2015 era AAA stuff as well.

View attachment 75806

Note that the Radeon 780M in question is explicitly from a 7840HS running at 45w TDP configuration, probably a fair assumption that much of the 680Ms comprising that average are of the 6800u variety along with with not so great memory configurations.

 

[AtenRa]

I was just looking at the RDNA3 chips (NAVI 31/32/33 and with the rumor of NAVI 33 being made at 6nm I was trying to figure out how the rest of the RADEON cards will be after RX7900XT.
I dont know if anyone have already mentioned the same before.

Could AMD use a further cut down version of N31 for the RX7800XT ??? 74 CUs with 256bit 16GB memory could be close to current RX6950XT performance in Raster and faster in RT at lower TDP.
It could have MSRP of $699 and compete with RTX4070 (not 4070Ti)

That way , RX7800 could be made with a full N32 and then RX7700XT with a cut down N32
So 7800 with NAVI32 could easily compete against RTX4060Ti and RX7700XT could be a RTX4060 competitor

So when we come to RX7600XT that will use the NAVI 33 at 6nm, it will only compete against RX4050 and down since it will have higher TDP but it will be made with a much cheaper 6nm process.


Any thoughts ??

 

[Aapje]

N32 already goes up to 256 bit, so it doesn't make much sense to use N31 with 4 MCDs when they can use N32 with 4 MCDs.

I foresee the full N32 going into the 7800 XT and the 7700 XT being a cut down version with 3 MCDs/192 bit.

 

[Hans Gruber]

When is AMD going to start a price war? They have the silicon and everybody hates the greed of Nvidia.

 

[Dribble]

When is AMD going to start a price war? They have the silicon and everybody hates the greed of Nvidia.

All AMD care about is making money, just like Nvidia, they are just as greedy and hence will price as high as they can for the limited supply of chips they can make.

 

[biostud]

All AMD care about is making money, just like Nvidia, they are just as greedy and hence will price as high as they can for the limited supply of chips they can make.

If a company is not run to maximize its profit, it is run well. The problem is the market isn't working because there isn't enough competition. Go Intel!!!!!

 

[scineram]

When is AMD going to start a price war? They have the silicon and everybody hates the greed of Nvidia.

Looks like Lisa appretiated my stern email and said no to any such thing to her henchmen.

 

[Hans Gruber]

All AMD care about is making money, just like Nvidia, they are just as greedy and hence will price as high as they can for the limited supply of chips they can make.

Good point. Each quarter is 3 months. Which quarter will AMD be forced to cook the books? Perhaps they already have a chef in the quarterly reports already.

 

[Mopetar]

When is AMD going to start a price war? They have the silicon and everybody hates the greed of Nvidia.

Unless they've got a massive amount of cheap wafers that they don't have anything else to do with I wouldn't hold my breath waiting.

AMD will just use the wafers for something more profitable. Chasing market share isn't terribly valuable if they have to slice their own throats to do it.

 

[scineram]

Navi 33 could have a chance to compete more aggressively on price. A lot will turn on how the desktop versions perform.

 

[Aapje]

Unless they've got a massive amount of cheap wafers that they don't have anything else to do with I wouldn't hold my breath waiting.

AMD will just use the wafers for something more profitable. Chasing market share isn't terribly valuable if they have to slice their own throats to do it.

TSMC seems to have excess capacity on N7/6 and unused capacity of these plants is extremely expensive. So you can bet that they will start giving discounts on wafers to get occupancy back up.

Navi 33 is completely on N6, so at the very least, AMD should be able to churn out a lot of 7600 (XT) cards without hampering their other sales.

 

[biostud]

Could they be shifting 7800XT to 6nm?

 

[gdansk]

Could they be shifting 7800XT to 6nm?

No.

 

[MrTeal]

True, but if N33 is 200mm² on N6, that's 3 X3D cache chips not made.
At retail those are a $150 markup from the base model and there's talk of those being capacity constrained, so between those and IO dies it's not like there's nothing else for AMD to use N6 supply on.

 

[Aapje]

True, but if N33 is 200mm² on N6, that's 3 X3D cache chips not made.

Again, if TSMC has excess capacity then AMD can just order more wafers. They don't need to choose between the two.

 

[Mopetar]

TSMC seems to have excess capacity on N7/6 and unused capacity of these plants is extremely expensive. So you can bet that they will start giving discounts on wafers to get occupancy back up.

They were giving discounts even back when things were more constrained. The use of EUV for 6nm actually allowed them to improve throughput because of fewer/simpler production steps, so people staying on 7nm meant fewer wafers per month.

 

[AtenRa]

N32 already goes up to 256 bit, so it doesn't make much sense to use N31 with 4 MCDs when they can use N32 with 4 MCDs.

I foresee the full N32 going into the 7800 XT and the 7700 XT being a cut down version with 3 MCDs/192 bit.

A full N32 only has 64 CUs and 64 RT cores. A cut down N31 with 74 CU and 74 RT cores even with the same 256bit memory will be faster.

So far we know they will only make 3 Chips, N31, N32 at 5nm and N33 at 6nm. N33 at 6nm will not be much faster than current N23 (RX6650XT) thus will not be able to compete against AD106 RTX4060.
For that reason they need to make 3 SKUs per Chip if the want to have enough SKUs to compete against all NVIDIA AD cards.


NAVI 33 at 6nm = 204mm2 and 13B transistors
4nm has almost double the density and AD 106 is 190mm2 (~20-22B transistors), there is no way that N33 (7600XT) will be able to compete against that chip.

So if N33 will not compete against AD106 RTX4060, then it will need to compete against AD107 RTX4050. Meaning there will be a huge gap from RX7900XT to 7600XT that they will have to cover with only a single NAVI32 chip.
Either they have another Chip or they have to create 4 SKUs from a single NAVI32 chip (RX7800/XT and 7700/XT), not possible. Well now that I think about it, they may as well create only two SKUs, 7800XT and 7700XT.
But again, a cut down version of N32 RX7700XT will only compete up to 4600/Ti and 7800XT up to RTX4070.

This is the reason a even more cut down N31 for a RX7800XT card will make sense and help them have a card between RTX4070 and RTX4070Ti, leaving the N32 for three more SKUs (7800/7700XT and 7700).

 

[biostud]

A full N32 only has 64 CUs and 64 RT cores. A cut down N31 with 74 CU and 74 RT cores even with the same 256bit memory will be faster.

So far we know they will only make 3 Chips, N31, N32 at 5nm and N33 at 6nm. N33 at 6nm will not be much faster than current N23 (RX6650XT) thus will not be able to compete against AD106 RTX4060.
For that reason they need to make 3 SKUs per Chip if the want to have enough SKUs to compete against all NVIDIA AD cards.


NAVI 33 at 6nm = 204mm2 and 13B transistors
4nm has almost double the density and AD 106 is 190mm2 (~20-22B transistors), there is no way that N33 (7600XT) will be able to compete against that chip.

So if N33 will not compete against AD106 RTX4060, then it will need to compete against AD107 RTX4050. Meaning there will be a huge gap from RX7900XT to 7600XT that they will have to cover with only a single NAVI32 chip.
Either they have another Chip or they have to create 4 SKUs from a single NAVI32 chip (RX7800/XT and 7700/XT), not possible. Well now that I think about it, they may as well create only two SKUs, 7800XT and 7700XT.
But again, a cut down version of N32 RX7700XT will only compete up to 4600/Ti and 7800XT up to RTX4070.

This is the reason a even more cut down N31 for a RX7800XT card will make sense and help them have a card between RTX4070 and RTX4070Ti, leaving the N32 for three more SKUs (7800/7700XT and 7700).

How many SKU's do the market demand?

 

[AtenRa]

How many SKU's do the market demand?

RDNA2 had cards from 6400 (NAVI24) all the way up to 6950XT (NAVI21) , if Im not mistaken 2 SKUs per Chip with 4 chips (NAVI 21 to 24). I believe RDNA3 should have something similar but so far we only know the existence of 3 chips and one of them is made at 6nm (NAVI 33).
The competition will have AD107 all the way up to AD102, that is 5 chips and if they will release AD103 that will make them 6 chips all of them at 4nm.

 

[jpiniero]

NAVI 33 at 6nm = 204mm2 and 13B transistors
4nm has almost double the density and AD 106 is 190mm2 (~20-22B transistors), there is no way that N33 (7600XT) will be able to compete against that chip.

The 4060 probably won't be much faster than the 3060 Ti. That should be no problem for N33.

 

[AtenRa]

The 4060 probably won't be much faster than the 3060 Ti. That should be no problem for N33.

4060 should be close to 3070 performance, so no NAVI33 will not be able to compete against that.

 

[jpiniero]

4060 should be close to 3070 performance,

Nope. That would be the 4060 Ti. I guess it would depend on how far much further nVidia decides to cut AD106 for the 4060.

 

[insertcarehere]

The 4060 probably won't be much faster than the 3060 Ti. That should be no problem for N33.

3060ti is >20% faster than 6650XT at QHD (similar in FHD), which I am really not sure would be "no problem" for N33 as it stands now.

 

[Kaluan]

Latest HUB tests that covered both of those cards (3060 "8GB" review) showed only 10% and 17,5% faster at 1080p and 1440p, the first of which being the more relevant one for this segment. So I'm not so sure about that...

IDK about others, but I don't see desktop N33 being less than 15% faster than N23 refresh.

Either way, price will make or break it. If it'll slot right in 6650XTs current price range, then it wins automatically. AMD probably wants to replace it's N7 chip orders with higher margin N6 ones anyway.