Question Speculation: RDNA3 + CDNA2 Architectures Thread

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uzzi38

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GodisanAtheist

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At this point if feels like AMD's biggest issue and the thing that seems to ALWAYS bite them in the ass when they have anything good or EVEN MEDIOCRE going for them is capacity.

AMD's CPU division has been historically ****ed over not only by some dirty dealings by Intel but also because they have never been able to supply anything close to the capacity that OEMs want.

This is twice the problem for AMD's GPU division since it gets a small fraction of the piece AMD's already smaller than the competition CPU division gets.

With N33 it looks like AMD is going to go for OK performance + Volume thanks to N6 being a depreciated node. At the end of the day, anything between 6600XT-6700XT is still going to be very solid performance for mainstream gamers and it behooves AMD to actually have parts to sell them in that segment in the form factor they're looking to buy (OEM laptops).
 

Saylick

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At this point if feels like AMD's biggest issue and the thing that seems to ALWAYS bite them in the ass when they have anything good or EVEN MEDIOCRE going for them is capacity.

AMD's CPU division has been historically ****ed over not only by some dirty dealings by Intel but also because they have never been able to supply anything close to the capacity that OEMs want.

This is twice the problem for AMD's GPU division since it gets a small fraction of the piece AMD's already smaller than the competition CPU division gets.
It's a chicken or the egg scenario. If a company isn't successful, how can it ship a ton of product, but if it cannot ship a ton of product, how can it be successful? As a result, organic growth tends to be slow. It doesn't help that Lisa Su is a very conservative CEO who is deliberate and measured in her projections, which is directly related to their wafer orders.

Economies of scale provides Intel and Nvidia with a lot of benefits that AMD does not enjoy. It's the reason why AMD cannot develop proprietary GPU technologies, even though everyone says they should if they want to sway consumers away from Nvidia, because no developer would spend the time and effort to adopt them due to AMD's vastly smaller market share.

I mentioned before that the market is a zero-sum game which rewards winners and punishes losers. It's a positive feedback loop that promotes natural monopolies. For all intents and purposes, Nvidia pretty much is a monopoly because AMD doesn't really have influence on what they do or how they price. The only reason why they don't bury AMD by dropping prices to force them out of the market is that the FTC would be up their butt and price wars never benefit anyone. For this reason, I typically roll my eyes whenever someone says that AMD's lack of competitiveness is the result of Nvidia's price gouging. If AMD didn't exist or left the GPU market, Nvidia would price gouge regardless. Doing so would be like me blaming Research In Motion for how expensive iPhones are rather than blaming Apple itself for raising prices.
 

TESKATLIPOKA

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With N33 it looks like AMD is going to go for OK performance + Volume thanks to N6 being a depreciated node. At the end of the day, anything between 6600XT-6700XT is still going to be very solid performance for mainstream gamers and it behooves AMD to actually have parts to sell them in that segment in the form factor they're looking to buy (OEM laptops).
Nvidia uses N5(N4) for every Ada(laptop + desktop), that means there shouldn't be issues with production capacity of silicon, especially for AMD who doesn't need such a volume for their GPUs.
N33 being on N6 is most likely due to production cost.
N33 GCD wouldn't be 2x smaller than 204mm2 and you even need 2 MCDs.
I got ~125-130mm2 for N5 GCD + 2x 37.5mm2 MCD.

Chiplet N33 on N5 process
485-506 GCD dies per wafer(good and bad), with $15,000 per wafer = $29.6-30.9
1776 MCD dies per wafer(good and bad), with $7,000 per wafer = $3.95
So in total $29.6-30.9 + 2*$3.95 = $37.5-38.8

N33 on N6 process
300 dies per wafer(good and bad), with $7,000 per wafer = $23

With packaging, let's say It's $35 vs $55. Difference is ~$20
Keep in mind that this is just an example!

I have to wonder If It's worth saving $20 on production cost instead of selling It for at least $20 more. Thanks to the better process, you should be able to clock It higher within the same TGP, so a faster product can be sold for more.
 

uzzi38

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3GHz clock for RDNA3 mobile APU going unnoticed?
Nothing to talk about it without knowing how much power it needs for that and under what workloads it's achievable.

In the right workloads you can see the 7900XTX briefly touch 4GHz after all. At the end of the day, it doesn't matter when it comes to real world performance.
 

Mopetar

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It would lend a lot of credence to the claims about hardware issues in N31 preventing it from reaching the target 3 GHz clock speed in gaming workloads.
 

jpiniero

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Phoenix IGP and N32 supposedly shouldn't have as many issues as N31 and N33.

But that might be because they are going to do a respin of N32. Which would line up with the idea that it will be 6+ months from now before you see it in any fashion.

If the 4070 Ti doesn't sell then I think they aren't going to be very excited about releasing N32 desktop in any case.
 

Kaluan

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Propose this to AMD lol. There is a difference in TDP range AND clock speed though (game clocks are different between the 7600M XT and the 7700S, and between the 7600M and 7600S). So while similar in specs, they are not the same. Also, in AMD's case one can have a rough estimation of the specs (exact TDP apart) only from the name.
Interestingly, based on their data, 7700S (up to 100W) seems to perform exactly like the (up to 120W) 7600M XT.
I suppose 7xxxS SKU have extra binning.

Either way, based on the current silicon revision (that we'll see in N33 mobile), I don't think we'll see much past MAYBE near 6700XT raster and MAYBE near 6800 raytracing for a 160W+ desktop part (7600 XT?).
Drivers being the wildcard, but I wouldn't base anything around that hopium.
Nothing to talk about it without knowing how much power it needs for that and under what workloads it's achievable.

In the right workloads you can see the 7900XTX briefly touch 4GHz after all. At the end of the day, it doesn't matter when it comes to real world performance.
They didn't ADVERTISE 4GHz, hell not even 3GHz for the 7900XTX now, did they? They do for top bin 780M.

So not exactly sound logic you're using there.

Phoneix RDNA3 is also a different revision than N31 and a different node. Highly doubt they behave exactly the same.


Anyway, for reference, 2,4GHz 680M (Ryzen 9) seems to be able to sustain those clocks at 45/54W PL setting (assuming adequate cooling is a given). 2,2GHz (Ryzen 7) likely needs a bit less.

This is stock, without forcing the x86 side to use less so more can go towards the IGP.
 
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TESKATLIPOKA

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7700S Geekbench OpenCL score. About 12% faster than the average 6700S.
Actually, It's only 3.5% faster.
I don't understand why they compared It to a cutdown 6700s with only 80W max.

RX 7700S is full N33 with 32CU 75-100W and 8GB 18gbps memory
Game frequency is 2200 MHz.

RX 6800S is full N23 with 32CU 100W and 8GB 16gbps memory
Game frequency is 1975 MHz.

OpenCL
81145(103.5%) vs 78332(100%)
 

insertcarehere

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Jan 17, 2013
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Actually, It's only 3.5% faster.
I don't understand why they compared It to a cutdown 6700s with only 80W max.

Because that's what AMD compared the 7700s with, which is not "wrong" from a product perspective (assuming 7700s replaces 6700s and there's something above it) but does inherently make inferring comparisons between N33 and N23 architecture flawed (more than it already would be using what AMD presents).
 

Aapje

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Mar 21, 2022
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But that might be because they are going to do a respin of N32. Which would line up with the idea that it will be 6+ months from now before you see it in any fashion.

No, the idea is that they do a respin of N31, but that N32 doesn't have the bug, so it's actually too good and would cannibalize the top tier. So they have to wait with the release of N32 until they fix N31.

Of course, this is all speculation.
 

jpiniero

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No, the idea is that they do a respin of N31, but that N32 doesn't have the bug, so it's actually too good and would cannibalize the top tier. So they have to wait with the release of N32 until they fix N31.

Of course, this is all speculation.

Don't you think they would have at least announced N32 mobile if that wasn't the case though?
 

Timorous

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Oct 27, 2008
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No, the idea is that they do a respin of N31, but that N32 doesn't have the bug, so it's actually too good and would cannibalize the top tier. So they have to wait with the release of N32 until they fix N31.

Of course, this is all speculation.

Not quite. I just don't think N32 is ready yet.

Even if it clocks higher it won't match the 7900XTX so the only part under threat would be the 7900XT but the BOM cost of the top N32 part will be less than the 7900XT so selling a part that is close in performance (around 4070Ti or a bit faster maybe) for $650-700 would be a great play. At that price it would absolutely mop up and margins would be really healthy.
 

TESKATLIPOKA

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Don't you think they would have at least announced N32 mobile if that wasn't the case though?
But then based on mobile N32 we will know what to expect from "fixed" N31. If there is really a significant performance increase, then the current N31 won't be interesting for the buyers.
 
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Aapje

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Don't you think they would have at least announced N32 mobile if that wasn't the case though?

N33 is supposed to be the big seller for mobile, so they might not want to present it as a lower tier laptop solution right now. Also what TESKA said, it would divulge a lot about desktop.

It's different for AMD than for Nvidia, because all of Nvidia's mobile chips are small monolithic chips, including the mobile '4090' (which is really a 4080 desktop chip, which is really a x070 tier chip). N32 is not a great chip for laptops, I don't think.

@Timorous

If a $650 7800 XT gets close to a 7900 XT, then it will not just cannibalize that card, but a lot of people will probably get it over the 7900 XTX that is nearly twice as expensive. Ultimately, the 7900 XTX is not a halo product and needs to provide value, which it won't.
 
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insertcarehere

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N33 is supposed to be the big seller for mobile, so they might not want to present it as a lower tier laptop solution right now. Also what TESKA said, it would divulge a lot about desktop.

It's different for AMD than for Nvidia, because all of Nvidia's mobile chips are small monolithic chips, including the mobile '4090' (which is really a 4080 desktop chip, which is really a x070 tier chip). N32 is not a great chip for laptops, I don't think.

@Timorous

If a $650 7800 XT gets close to a 7900 XT, then it will not just cannibalize that card, but a lot of people will probably get it over the 7900 XTX that is nearly twice as expensive. Ultimately, the 7900 XTX is not a halo product and needs to provide value, which it won't.

I don't buy that N32 is ready and being deliberately held back here given that:
- It gives Nvidia first-mover advantage in any high-end gaming/productivity laptops and further continues the problem of AMD not getting their designs into OEMs. Navi 33 looks poised to primarily compete with AD107, and Nvidia has 3 GPUs above that in mobile.
- it makes no business sense to delay a more efficient, more economical product (hypothetical N32) for the sake of selling and producing more of a less efficient, higher cost product (current N31).

There is little reason that N32 *has* to be priced to undercut N31 in value (the XT certainly doesn't undercut the XTX), it's not hard to see a N32 that performs close to N31 XT also be priced close enough to said XT, at least initially until AMD puts out a hypothetically fixed N31.

But then based on mobile N32 we will know what to expect from "fixed" N31. If there is really a significant performance increase, then the current N31 won't be interesting for the buyers.

Unless Mobile N32 is an absolute rockstar (IE matches 7900xt in a laptop), most people aren't going to be able to extrapolate well between GPU family A with <150w TGP and GPU family B with >300 TGP.
 
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Timorous

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N33 is supposed to be the big seller for mobile, so they might not want to present it as a lower tier laptop solution right now. Also what TESKA said, it would divulge a lot about desktop.

It's different for AMD than for Nvidia, because all of Nvidia's mobile chips are small monolithic chips, including the mobile '4090' (which is really a 4080 desktop chip, which is really a x070 tier chip). N32 is not a great chip for laptops, I don't think.

@Timorous

If a $650 7800 XT gets close to a 7900 XT, then it will not just cannibalize that card, but a lot of people will probably get it over the 7900 XTX that is nearly twice as expensive. Ultimately, the 7900 XTX is not a halo product and needs to provide value, which it won't.

If margin on that part is higher and supply is higher why would it bother AMD if more people buy the higher margin part. We are talking 66% of the silicon with lower power and cooling requirements for 65-70% of the price. The margin on N32 will be higher than N31
 

Aapje

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@insertcarehere

If the 7800 XT is close in performance to the 7900 XT and priced very close to it, then the entire product is nearly pointless, since it will drive very little extra sales due to being so similar to the 7900 XT. They then also get the bad PR of having to explain why the price for this tier went up so much.

And when it comes to laptops, the number of laptop models with a specific chip shows that the 3050, 3050 Ti and 3060 are the main sellers. There are less than half the models with a 3070 and almost half again, for the 3080. So unless something changes, which seems unlikely, AD107 will be the main seller on laptops for Nvidia and thus the main chip to compete with. You have to keep in mind that laptop makers have limited R&D capacity, so it takes time to make the new laptop models. Any extra model with N32 would for the next period just mean one fewer model with N33.
 

TESKATLIPOKA

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If margin on that part is higher and supply is higher why would it bother AMD if more people buy the higher margin part. We are talking 66% of the silicon with lower power and cooling requirements for 65-70% of the price. The margin on N32 will be higher than N31
Why would be the margin for N32 higher than N31?
Price: $699 vs $999
That's a difference of $300.

I calculated the cost for making N31 and N33.
Wafer prices are 7nm at that time $8000, 5nm currently $15000, 6nm currently $7000.
MCD is 37mm2 -> 1547 good dies. 7000/1547 = ~ $4.5
N31 GCD is 300mm2 -> 160 good dies. 15000/160 = $94 + 6*$4.5 = $121, with packaging maybe $155.
N31(cut) GCD is 300mm2 -> 160 good dies. 15000/160 = $94 + 5*$4.5 = $116.5, with packaging maybe $148.
N32 GCD is 200mm2 -> 251 good dies. 15000/251 = $60 + 4*$4.5 = $78, with packaging maybe $100.
GDDR6 is $20 per 2GB GDDR6 module included in BOM.

MRSP price will be divided: 8% to shop, 3% shipping, 19% manufacturer margin, you will be left with 70% of MRSP for BOM and AMD's asked price for the chip.
Chip costBOMMSRP70% of MRSP
RX 7900 XTX$155$330$999$699
RX 7900 XT$148$290$899$629
RX 7800 XT$100$230$649-699$489
AMD can set the price for manufacturers per chip at:
RX 7900 XTX: $699 - $330 = $369 (36.9% of MRSP)
RX 7900 XT: $629 - $290 = $339 (37.7% of MRSP)
RX 7800 XT: $489 - $230 = $259 (37% of MRSP)

Profit per chip:
RX 7900 XTX: $699 - $330 -$155 = $214
RX 7900 XTX: $629 - $290 -$148 = $191
RX 7800 XT: $489 - $230 - $100 = $159

Both N31 based models are more profitable than N32 for AMD.