Question Speculation: RDNA3 + CDNA2 Architectures Thread

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uzzi38

uzzi38

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Mopetar

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Jan 31, 2011
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linkgoron said:
There's no reason to store GPUs in some storage and wait for 2 or 3 quarters if they can make a profit from them, IMO. Supposing that there really is a hardware bug, it makes more sense, IMO, to sell whatever they have and then just refresh next year.
Click to expand...

If there was a bug that needed fixing, AMD may have delayed N32 production. It's not as though they don't have anything else to do with the wafers. Delay N32 and just produce more Zen 4 chiplets in the meantime.

We'll probably have a clearer picture at CES. If they don't talk about N32, assume it probably will be another six or so months before it comes out.
 
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Aapje

Aapje

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Zen 4 sells incredibly poorly, so that strategy requires accepting far lower margins on Ryzen. Not sure whether they can even compensate enough for the higher platform costs.
 
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Timorous

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Aapje said:
Zen 4 sells incredibly poorly, so that strategy requires accepting far lower margins on Ryzen. Not sure whether they can even compensate enough for the higher platform costs.
Click to expand...

AMD might be better off doing deals with MB / Ram manufacturers to offer rebates for people who buy CPU + Mobo + RAM rather than further discounting the CPUs.

I expect AMD may have wanted to charge $1,200 for the XTX and $1,000 for the XT. The XTX with higher clocks would probably offer 4090 level raster performance and about 4080 level RT performance* for the 4080 price. The XT would sit between the 4090 and the 4080 in raster but be faster than the 4080 12G in RT.

If the bug is true then it just means AMD will accept less margin on these initial parts and they can refresh later with a beefier 7950 range than they originally planned for. It does mean that N32 could come in pretty close to 7900XT performance but if that is not launching until mid next year to clear RDNA2 stock then AMD might refresh the 79xx range and release N32 at the same / similar time.

* If you look at the AMD slide the 4K Native RT gain for the 7900XTX is about 1.66x that of the 6950XT. Based on meta reviews of the 6950XT and 4080 the 6950XT is about 52.9% of the RT performance of the 4080 in Native 4K. 1.66x that is 87.8% of the RT performance of the 4080. At higher clocks that number would be closer to 95-105% so AMD could have offered perf/$ parity in RT with a big advantage in Raster. Which is what they are doing anyway by the looks of things but at a slightly lower price point than they may have initially wanted. They would have done the cost/benefit analysis and calculated that doing this means they make more in total because they can sell the broken N31 dies then when they do fix the bug the top XTX bin will be really easy to hit as long as the die has no defects.
 
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eek2121

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Timorous said:
AMD might be better off doing deals with MB / Ram manufacturers to offer rebates for people who buy CPU + Mobo + RAM rather than further discounting the CPUs.

I expect AMD may have wanted to charge $1,200 for the XTX and $1,000 for the XT. The XTX with higher clocks would probably offer 4090 level raster performance and about 4080 level RT performance* for the 4080 price. The XT would sit between the 4090 and the 4080 in raster but be faster than the 4080 12G in RT.

If the bug is true then it just means AMD will accept less margin on these initial parts and they can refresh later with a beefier 7950 range than they originally planned for. It does mean that N32 could come in pretty close to 7900XT performance but if that is not launching until mid next year to clear RDNA2 stock then AMD might refresh the 79xx range and release N32 at the same / similar time.

* If you look at the AMD slide the 4K Native RT gain for the 7900XTX is about 1.66x that of the 6950XT. Based on meta reviews of the 6950XT and 4080 the 6950XT is about 52.9% of the RT performance of the 4080 in Native 4K. 1.66x that is 87.8% of the RT performance of the 4080. At higher clocks that number would be closer to 95-105% so AMD could have offered perf/$ parity in RT with a big advantage in Raster. Which is what they are doing anyway by the looks of things but at a slightly lower price point than they may have initially wanted. They would have done the cost/benefit analysis and calculated that doing this means they make more in total because they can sell the broken N31 dies then when they do fix the bug the top XTX bin will be really easy to hit as long as the die has no defects.
Click to expand...
Now I want to hold off buying a GPU (I am not exactly hurting for one) to see if AMD puts out something better next year.
 
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biostud

biostud

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eek2121 said:
Now I want to hold off buying a GPU (I am not exactly hurting for one) to see if AMD puts out something better next year.
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There is always something better coming out. :p But I doubt that you will see better price/performance or better performance/watt within the upcoming generation. If N31 relaunches with better speeds, it will be at a higher price and more power consumption. The only thing that could change anything is if competition finally kicks in and nvidia feels they have to lower their prices.

Which might happen...
NVIDIA GeForce RTX 4080 Reportedly Getting Price Cut By Mid of December To Make It Competitive Against AMD's 7900 XTX (wccftech.com)
 
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Karnak

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Price cut is due to the value of the Euro compared to the US Dollar. Has nothing to do with competiton, US Dollar MSRP is still the same.

But still good for europeans and RDNA3 with the Euro getting stronger which means RDNA3 will also be "cheaper" there .
 
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biostud

biostud

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Karnak said:
Price cut is due to the value of the Euro compared to the US Dollar. Has nothing to do with competiton, US Dollar MSRP is still the same.

But still good for europeans and RDNA3 with the Euro getting stronger which means RDNA3 will also be "cheaper" there .
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It is not the 5% price cuts due to exchange rates; they are referring to. (At least I don't think so)
 
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Kaluan

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It's such a terrible benchmark, but here's a GB5 Compute Vulkan/Windows benchmark of RX 7900XTX that popped up (~180K points):

ASUS System Product Name - Geekbench

Benchmark results for an ASUS System Product Name with an AMD Ryzen 7 7700X processor.
browser.geekbench.com

There's also a OpenCL result, but that one's worth even less.

For reference (or even more confusion...), RX 6900XT scores somewhere between 85K to 114K points.
 
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eek2121

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biostud said:
There is always something better coming out. :p But I doubt that you will see better price/performance or better performance/watt within the upcoming generation. If N31 relaunches with better speeds, it will be at a higher price and more power consumption. The only thing that could change anything is if competition finally kicks in and nvidia feels they have to lower their prices.

Which might happen...
NVIDIA GeForce RTX 4080 Reportedly Getting Price Cut By Mid of December To Make It Competitive Against AMD's 7900 XTX (wccftech.com)
Click to expand...

Well of course, I know that something better is always coming out, I have been in this whole hardware fun since before the 8088 FWIW, oh and I still enjoy it. 😉

However, I get the feeling that if this IS a hardware bug, we are going to see amazing refreshes that will actually provide more value for the money, unlike the boring launch of current NVIDIA and AMD GPUs.
 
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Ajay

Ajay

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Saylick said:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1599053260643479555
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Eh, missed this. Pretty dang broke if the new spin isn't coming out till H2 2023! Though, given the big downturn in GPU sales, AMD may not have felt the need to move faster. With that kind of time frame, there is an opportunity to add in some other refinements. We shall see. If the prices stay the same, these will be very nice GFX cards and a great upgrade for those holding on to RX6000 and RTX3000 Series GPUs.
 
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GodisanAtheist

GodisanAtheist

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scineram said:
Are you really that excited by $1200 7950 XTX?
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- Yes, because I'm not going to be buying it, but AMD having a much higher baseline means I'll be getting more performance for $400 5-6 years from now than if they only build off their 50% performance increase.

Additionally, it means they're much more competitive with NV, which is just generally a good thing for the GPU market as a whole.
 
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Saylick

Saylick

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Ajay said:
Eh, missed this. Pretty dang broke if the new spin isn't coming out till H2 2023! Though, given the big downturn in GPU sales, AMD may not have felt the need to move faster. With that kind of time frame, there is an opportunity to add in some other refinements. We shall see. If the prices stay the same, these will be very nice GFX cards and a great upgrade for those holding on to RX6000 and RTX3000 Series GPUs.
Click to expand...
We'll see how broken it is, assuming it is broken. There was some discussion about the scaler ALU cache and the OREO feature not working as intended or something like that as well. If there truly is a fix, I hope they address those things as well. Tis a shame if we get another Vega moment where AMD shipped a product with broken/underutilized features that take up die space and end up not showing the true potential of the silicon.
 
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Justinus

Justinus

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biostud said:
4080 to 4090 has close to linear per dollar scaling :p

But, yes we need more competition in a market that is not supply constrained.
Click to expand...

I said hard to find, not impossible. And also the 4080 pricing is clearly out of line with die and SKU positioning historically, seemingly motivated by the desire to force movement of old stock (ampere) cards while still releasing next gen flagship cards to maintain performance leadership.
 
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Kaluan

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Stuka87 said:
There was some new info in it, was much of it was recapping and breaking down what AMD released in their deep dive.
Click to expand...
Yea saw/heard some new stuff. The rundown of "AMD Advantage" on desktop was also useful.

Which made me think, could they maybe use the IGP in Raphael (or Phoenix) to lower FSR overhead in games when running +dGPU?
 
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