Question Speculation: RDNA3 + CDNA2 Architectures Thread

[uzzi38]

Man I have been dying to make this one for a while now.

First rumours for RDNA3 are here so new thread time!

Just going to start off with this one for now: kopite7kimi on Twitter: "@VideoCardz Ah, I mean a simple mcm design with 10240 cores is not enough. Because the lift from RDNA2 to RDNA3 is much bigger than from RDNA1 to RDNA2. We should expect many big improvements in GFX11. 🤔" / Twitter

 

[TESKATLIPOKA]

I will tell you a secret.

7800XT will be on Navi31, it will be rebranded 7900XT but with 4CU less. It will arrive in late Q1

7800XT specs
80CU
320bit
20GB
700$ MSRP

Navi32 60CU ( 7700XT) is a 6800XT competitor because 7900XT with 84CU is barely faster than 80CU 6900XT in raster.

Navi33 is a slow dud.

You don't need to thank me.

There is no reason in releasing 7800XT based on N31 with 80CU when It will be just a bit slower(3-5%) than 7900XT and with a price 22% lower($699/899). It's much easier to lower the price of RX 7900XT.

Your claim about N32 performing as RX 6800XT is purely a guess and not really a good one.

RX 7900XTX has 97% -> 97/96*60 => 61% and RX 6800XT has 62%.
RX 7900XT has 82% -> 82/84*60 => 58%, this would be between RX 6800(53%) and RX 6800XT(62%) actually.

Why I said It's not a good guess?
We don't know the clockspeed. Who says It cannot be higher than N31? Also, It's not a secret that N31 can clock a lot higher >3GHz, but not in games. Can It be fixed or not? If It can at least partially, then the performance will see a significant boost.
We also don't know how drivers will improve performance, because there is a lot to improve and N32 will come after half a year or so.

N33 is a slow dud?
RX 6750XT level of performance is not bad for those specs and size. BTW, Nvidia with Ada106 won't be much faster based on specs(36SM;32MB;128bit) at least not in raster unless they clock It close to 3GHz. For RT neither of them would be a good option because of 8GB Vram, but Nvidia would be still better.

 

[Kaluan]

There is no reason in releasing 7800XT based on N31 with 80CU when It will be just a bit slower(3-5%) than 7900XT and with a price 22% lower($699/899). It's much easier to lower the price of RX 7900XT.

Your claim about N32 performing as RX 6800XT is purely a guess and not really a good one.

RX 7900XTX has 97% -> 97/96*60 => 61% and RX 6800XT has 62%.
RX 7900XT has 82% -> 82/84*60 => 58%, this would be between RX 6800(53%) and RX 6800XT(62%) actually.

Why I said It's not a good guess?
We don't know the clockspeed. Who says It cannot be higher than N31? Also, It's not a secret that N31 can clock a lot higher >3GHz, but not in games. Can It be fixed or not? If It can at least partially, then the performance will see a significant boost.
We also don't know how drivers will improve performance, because there is a lot to improve and N32 will come after half a year or so.

N33 is a slow dud?
RX 6750XT level of performance is not bad for those specs and size. BTW, Nvidia with Ada106 won't be much faster based on specs(36SM;32MB;128bit) at least not in raster unless they clock It close to 3GHz. For RT neither of them would be a good option because of 8GB Vram, but Nvidia would be still better.

Sounds a lot like they're basing silly assumption on long-debunked claims that N33 = 7700 XT on AMD's roadmap. Which never had any basis in facts. Just pure news outlets uneducated speculation so they can have something up on their charts for clicks.

That in itself makes me wanna ignore everything they said.

 

[GodisanAtheist]

N32 is gonna land right on the 6900XT in terms of performance (so not much faster than a 6800XT). N33 is going to be ~ 6750-6800 speed.

Lets stop shoveling coal into this hype train for a hot minute and stop pretending like N32 is suddenly going to match the 7900XT.

It hurts to watch AMD people do this to themselves.

 

[TESKATLIPOKA]

N32 is gonna land right on the 6900XT in terms of performance (so not much faster than a 6800XT). N33 is going to be ~ 6750-6800 speed.

Lets stop shoveling coal into this hype train for a hot minute and stop pretending like N32 is suddenly going to match the 7900XT.

It hurts to watch AMD people do this to themselves.

7900XT level of performance? I didn't say that.
N32 with similar clocks to RX 7900XTX should be ~6800XT.
RX 7900XT is 32% faster than 6800XT.
To perform like that, you would need ~40-45% higher clock speed?
I can imagine 3GHz gaming frequency in Cyberpunk without RT for N32, which is 20% more than RX 7900XTX managed.
And this is only a possibility, I never claimed It will happen.

To me, It doesn't really matter If N32 or N33 perform better than expected. If they do, then they will just cost more. I think It would be better, if they didn't perform well, then we can expect better performance/price ratio.

This thread has Speculation in Its name, and I just do that.

 

[GodisanAtheist]

Hmmmm ok I'm not entirely certain I was really responding to anybody specific, BUUUUUT:

Your claim about N32 performing as RX 6800XT is purely a guess and not really a good one.

RX 7900XTX has 97% -> 97/96*60 => 61% and RX 6800XT has 62%.
RX 7900XT has 82% -> 82/84*60 => 58%, this would be between RX 6800(53%) and RX 6800XT(62%) actually.

Why I said It's not a good guess?
We don't know the clockspeed. Who says It cannot be higher than N31? Also, It's not a secret that N31 can clock a lot higher >3GHz, but not in games. Can It be fixed or not? If It can at least partially, then the performance will see a significant boost.
We also don't know how drivers will improve performance, because there is a lot to improve and N32 will come after half a year or so.

- That sure reads like you're saying N32 won't perform like a 6800XT/6900XT and can very well perform much faster than a 6800xt/6900XT. There really isn't all that much room between a 6900XT (66%) and a 7900XT (82%). The 7900XT is only ~24% faster (0.82/0.66 - 1 = 0.24 = 24% faster) than the 6900XT, there just isn't a lot of room there for a faster N32 die.

7900XT level of performance? I didn't say that.
N32 with similar clocks to RX 7900XTX should be ~6800XT.
RX 7900XT is 32% faster than 6800XT.
To perform like that, you would need ~40-45% higher clock speed?
I can imagine 3GHz gaming frequency in Cyberpunk without RT for N32, which is 20% more than RX 7900XTX managed.
And this is only a possibility, I never claimed It will happen.
This thread has Speculation in Its name, and I just do that.

- Fair enough, but there was a lot of speculation about the N31 that ended up really badly hyping the product and resulted in one of the bigger AMD launch disappointments in recent memory.

 

[biostud]

So if N32 will perform the same as 6900XT, will it be priced the same as the current price? $699 or maybe $599? And how much power do you expect it to use?

 

[TESKATLIPOKA]

Hmmmm ok I'm not entirely certain I was really responding to anybody specific, BUUUUUT:



- That sure reads like you're saying N32 won't perform like a 6800XT/6900XT and can very well perform much faster than a 6800xt/6900XT. There really isn't all that much room between a 6900XT (66%) and a 7900XT (82%). The 7900XT is only ~24% faster (0.82/0.66 - 1 = 0.24 = 24% faster) than the 6900XT, there just isn't a lot of room there for a faster N32 die.



- Fair enough, but there was a lot of speculation about the N31 that ended up really badly hyping the product and resulted in one of the bigger AMD launch disappointments in recent memory.

1. You didn't specify who you meant, and I was the last one who wrote something which could be understood in that way, that's why I replied.

2. It could be 15% faster than 6800XT for example. In this case RX 7900XT would be still 15% faster. I think that's good enough.

3. I must confess, I was one of those who believed in higher clock speeds and also expected more performance from Dual Issue ALU. It didn't end up as I expected and I was very very disappointed.

P.S. I should buy one and play render on It, then I can say I have a >3GHz GPU.

 

[TESKATLIPOKA]

So if N32 will perform the same as 6900XT, will it be priced the same as the current price? $699 or maybe $599? And how much power do you expect it to use?

A very good question, but It's hard to tell.
I think no one would protest If It cost only $599, but I think It will be $649-699, but It will depend on performance and market condition.

No more than 225W TBP would be ideal, but I fear AMD would go higher, even 275W is a possibility, just to gain extra performance. The RTX 4080 12GB RTX 4070Ti had(has) 285W TBP.

 

[Saylick]

A very good question, but It's hard to tell.
I think no one would protest If It cost only $599, but I think It will be $649-699, but It will depend on performance and market condition.

No more than 225W TBP would be ideal, but I fear AMD would go higher, even 275W is a possibility, just to gain extra performance. The RTX 4080 12GB RTX 4070Ti had(has) 285W TBP.

Yeah, N32 with ~N21 raster performance and more RT performance would be somewhat decent if it's $699 with a lower TDP (~250W). Currently, used 6900XTs can be found on eBay for ~$550-650. If they ask $799, or god forbid $899, for N32 (7800XT) then it gets less enticing. Personally, I think asking anything higher than $699 is a failure. Ideally, it's $599.

 

[biostud]

A very good question, but It's hard to tell.
I think no one would protest If It cost only $599, but I think It will be $649-699, but It will depend on performance and market condition.

No more than 225W TBP would be ideal, but I fear AMD would go higher, even 275W is a possibility, just to gain extra performance. The RTX 4080 12GB RTX 4070Ti had(has) 285W TBP.

But the again what about the 54% performance/watt increase? I wonder if it is more likely to actually happen for N32.

 

[GodisanAtheist]

But the again what about the 54% performance/watt increase? I wonder if it is more likely to actually happen for N32.

- The 54% performance per watt increase was a straight up lie from AMD. Get that out of your head. Power limited scenario where the RDNA 2 card scaled better with the additional power than the 7900XTX did.

The 7900XTX isn't even 54% faster than a 6800XT let alone a 6950XT even with its additional power overhead.

Best case scenario I see for AMD right now is cleaning up their software scheduler to make better use of the dual pumped SPs, but that will mean a rising tide for the entire RDNA3 arch across the board, it won't be something that exclusively benefits any one die across the arch.

 

[insertcarehere]

N32 is gonna land right on the 6900XT in terms of performance (so not much faster than a 6800XT). N33 is going to be ~ 6750-6800 speed.

In a universe where N32 is a 6900/6950xt competitor, N33 with half the CUs, half the bandwidth, and on 6nm is sure not going to be 6750/6800 speed.

It hurts to watch AMD people do this to themselves.

No its hilarious to see the hype cycle built up by the same old suspects and crash every time, almost good enough to set a clock on at this point.

 

[TESKATLIPOKA]

The 7900XTX isn't even 54% faster than a 6800XT let alone a 6950XT even with its additional power overhead.

I see 59% higher performance than RX 6800XT .

But I agree 54% better performance/W was not true.

 

[TESKATLIPOKA]

In a universe where N32 is a 6900/6950xt competitor, N33 with half the CUs, half the bandwidth, and on 6nm is sure not going to be 6750/6800 speed.

In 3dmark It was comparable to N22 from what I saw.
If that score was (is) valid is something I don't know.

Against N23 It would be >25% higher, and that's pretty unrealistic with comparable specs. Unless they improve dual issue ALU's performance, I am very skeptical.

After CES 2023 we should know more or not?

 

[biostud]

In a universe where N32 is a 6900/6950xt competitor, N33 with half the CUs, half the bandwidth, and on 6nm is sure not going to be 6750/6800 speed.



No its hilarious to see the hype cycle built up by the same old suspects and crash every time, almost good enough to set a clock on at this point.

Maybe I'm naive or an optimist, but when a new generation is launched I expect better performance/$ and so far it has sorely been missing from both companies. So I still have hopes for the $6-700 segment to deliver in that regard. But I'm ready to be disappointed.

 

[Timorous]

So if N32 will perform the same as 6900XT, will it be priced the same as the current price? $699 or maybe $599? And how much power do you expect it to use?

If the perf/$ is equal or slightly improved over 7900XTX per this chart

I would expect $650 - $700 for 7800XT

Instinct says match the price point of the 6800XT and improve cost/frame to around $7.3 / frame

If performance is in the 95-100 fps range (so between 6900XT and 7900XT) then you are looking at more like $700 unless AMD want to make it the obvious price/perf champion.

 

[Timorous]

Maybe I'm naive or an optimist, but when a new generation is launched I expect better performance/$ and so far it has sorely been missing from both companies. So I still have hopes for the $6-700 segment to deliver in that regard. But I'm ready to be disappointed.

Has this really ever happened consistently though? These are older reviews where the new card is compared to the street price of the prior top card (excluding titans or the Sli on a stick cards)

780 has worse perf/$ than 680 street price.

780Ti worse perf/$ than 780 street price.

980 was an improvement vs 780Ti although it only matched the 780 in perf/$

980ti about the same as the 980.

1080 was a great improvement but this seems to be an outlier vs historical trends.

1080Ti was about the same as the 1080.

I will stop here. 2000 series was worse which was almost a correction of how good the 1080 actually improved on it. 3000 was not really available at MSRP so hard to judge as the market was so screwed up.

 

[biostud]

Has this really ever happened consistently though? These are older reviews where the new card is compared to the street price of the prior top card (excluding titans or the Sli on a stick cards)

780 has worse perf/$ than 680 street price.

780Ti worse perf/$ than 780 street price.

980 was an improvement vs 780Ti although it only matched the 780 in perf/$

980ti about the same as the 980.

1080 was a great improvement but this seems to be an outlier vs historical trends.

1080Ti was about the same as the 1080.

I will stop here. 2000 series was worse which was almost a correction of how good the 1080 actually improved on it. 3000 was not really available at MSRP so hard to judge as the market was so screwed up.

I know that top tier cards never give you best value, and since I'm not in the market for that and never have been, I tend to compare prices and performance of 2nd or 3rd tier cards. Another thing is that normally the price of video cards will steadily be lower from launch until EOL. This has not been the case for the 3xxx cards this time around.

 

[TESKATLIPOKA]

I know that top tier cards never give you best value, and since I'm not in the market for that and never have been, I tend to compare prices and performance of 2nd or 3rd tier cards. Another thing is that normally the price of video cards will steadily be lower from launch until EOL. This has not been the case for the 3xxx cards this time around.

I myself am not one of them, but If someone bought GTX 1080 for example, then even 6.5 years later that card is still good for Full HD.
Ok, no RT but we are talking about a very old card which doesn't have enough performance for It.
I would consider that a great buy, because now you would need to but RX 6600 and you end up with only 11% higher performance.
Of course, this example isn't really true about the later generations.

 

[biostud]

I myself am not one of them, but If someone bought GTX 1080 for example, then even 6.5 years later that card is still good for Full HD.
Ok, no RT but we are talking about a very old card which doesn't have enough performance for It.
I would consider that a great buy, because now you would need to but RX 6600 and you end up with only 11% higher performance.
Of course, this example isn't really true about the later generations.

My 1070 would serve my needs as well, if I hadn't decided to upgrade my monitor to a G9. Originally I had planned to get a 3080, but then covid/crypto happened, and here we are

 

[TESKATLIPOKA]

My 1070 would serve my needs as well, if I hadn't decided to upgrade my monitor to a G9. Originally I had planned to get a 3080, but then covid/crypto happened, and here we are

When are you planning to upgrade your old card?
Are you waiting for N32?

 

[biostud]

When are you planning to upgrade your old card?
Are you waiting for N32?

Yes, I'll do a full upgrade with a 7800X3D. Originally I would have done it in one step, but let's see on the video card situation if it will be a two step upgrade.

 

[TESKATLIPOKA]

Yes, I'll do a full upgrade with a 7800X3D. Originally I would have done it in one step, but let's see on the video card situation if it will be a two step upgrade.

I would even consider 7950X3D If It's not too expensive for you, this way you don't have to worry about CPU for a pretty long time.

N32 should be faster than RTX 3080, RT will be likely worse, but 16GB Vram is very tempting.
Is this level of performance enough for your monster monitor?

 

[biostud]

I would even consider 7950X3D If It's not too expensive for you, this way you don't have to worry about CPU for a pretty long time.

N32 should be faster than RTX 3080, RT will be likely worse, but 16GB Vram is very tempting.
Is this level of performance enough for your monster monitor?

I really don't need more cores, I play World of Tanks most of the time (2-6h/week) and have a weekly gaming night with some old high-school friends, where we mostly play co-op games. And that pretty much sums up my gaming needs. When I will need more CPU power I will send the 7800X3D to a 2nd build for my kids and most likely get zen6 3D (or whatever will be the last CPU for AM5). I have lived with a 5820k for 9 years, so I'm not picky

The reason why I wanted a 3080 at launch was that it was really good price /performance at launch MSRP. I could afford a 7950X3D and a 4090, but I really don't want to spend that kind of money, if I can find better value at another price range.

 

[tajoh111]

I see 59% higher performance than RX 6800XT .

But I agree 54% better performance/W was not true.

Did RDNA 2 slow down?

It just seems less competitive now vs Nvidia.