I owned a lot of AMD stocks before Zen2 and exited before the recent all-time highs.
I think AMD's stock is being powered by a lot of fanboys and a lot of institutional investors that aren't as well-tuned to tech trends as enthusiasts.
AMD has some fundamental problems:
- For CPUs, Intel moving to TSMC will erode its node advantage and cause a decrease in gross margins since they will have to pay more for wafers.
- The x86 market is not growing. It will shrink.
- In the hyperscalers space, Amazon has already demonstrated that its ARM Graviton CPU can compete against x86. You can bet that Amazon will eventually want to switch to primarily using its in-house CPUs. Microsoft and Google will likely follow this trend.
- For AI, Nvidia has built incredible moat in the industry with CUDA that AMD is just not likely to ever compete with its own compute GPUs
- For gaming, Nvidia has time and time again shown that not only do they offer higher performance, they're more innovative with things like DLSS and ray tracing.
- Consoles are a low margin business
- Mobile gaming is now a bigger business than PC and console gaming. AMD has no access to this market. The market is controlled by Qualcomm and Apple.
In the semiconductor business, it seems like you either become the monopoly or you're at a distant second place. I don't see AMD becoming a monopoly in any of the segments right now. No matter where you look, AMD is competing against players far bigger than they are.
The one clear area AMD can monopolize is cloud game streaming. Google Stadia is built on AMD GPUs. Xbox and Playstation use AMD GPUs so it makes sense that Microsoft and Sony will continue to use AMD GPUs for game streaming tech. But how big is this market really?
So to summarize, AMD's best product (x86 CPUs) will lose its node advantage, is in a declining market, and is competing against big ARM companies in Qualcomm and Amazon. Its GPUs are a distant second in PC gaming and AI. They might have a monopoly in console gaming and cloud gaming, but it's currently low margin and the market size might be small.