Q: What are the indications that Lott's study of changes in concealed carry laws is flawed?
A: Apart from the obvious mistakes (e.g., Lott's inability to accurately identify when states changed their carry laws), several researchers have shown that small changes in the statistical models Lott uses to reach his conclusions result in large changes in his findings - an important indication that his research is fundamentally flawed. Researchers who have reanalyzed Lott's data, for example, found no beneficial impact from changes in carry laws when Florida was not included in the study, or when they restricted their analysis to counties that had populations greater than 100,000 people.
Q: Doesn't Lott implicitly acknowledge that his work is fundamentally flawed because he does not account for other factors which could affect both the crime rate and the decision by state legislators to change carry laws?
A: Yes. On page 153 of More Guns, Less Crime, Lott writes that "The more serious possibility is that some other factor may have caused both the reduction in crime rates and the passage of the law to occur at the same time." And he goes on to write that "For a critic to attack the paper, the correct approach would have been to state what variables were not included in the analysis." Well, this has been done.
Critics of Lott's study have identified a number of factors that affect crime rates, but which Lott failed to address in his research. Examples include changes in how the police go about their business (e.g., implementation of community policing, and crime-mapping techniques used by some police departments), changes in poverty levels, gang activity, maturation of the drug market, and other changes in gun laws.
Most important, in a paper published in the Journal of Legal Studies (January 1998), Dan Black and Daniel Nagin used a well known, formal statistical test that proved that Lott failed to include a number of important variables in his study. On the basis of this and other findings, Drs. Black and Nagin, along with Professor Jens Ludwig, concluded that "there is absolutely no credible evidence to support the idea that permissive concealed-carry laws reduce violent crime," and that "it would be a mistake to formulate policy based on the findings from Dr. Lott's study."
To this day, John Lott has failed to provide any statistical evidence of his own that counters Black and Nagin's finding that Lott's conclusions are inappropriately attributed to changes in concealed carry laws. Until Lott can do this, it is inappropriate for him to continue to claim that allowing more people to carry concealed handguns causes a drop in violent crime.
Q: Is it true that John Lott's findings have been dismissed by Florida State University criminologist Gary Kleck, who is cited as an authority on gun violence research by Lott and whose work is routinely praised by the NRA?
A: Yes. Kleck has accepted the Black and Nagin critique, writing in his new book that Lott's thesis "could be challenged, in light of how modest the intervention was. [More] likely, the declines in crime, coinciding with relaxation of carry laws were largely attributable to other factors not controlled for in the Lott and Mustard analysis" (Targeting Guns; p. 372).
Q: John Lott claims that changing the law to allow more people to carry concealed handguns causes a fall in violent crime, yet he finds virtually no beneficial effect from changes in handgun carry laws on robbery - the crime most likely to occur between strangers, and in public spaces. Is this finding consistent with his theory - does it make sense?
A: No, it does not make sense. In fact, the finding that changes in concealed carry laws result in a large drop in rape - a crime most often committed within homes by someone who is known to the victim - while showing virtually no beneficial impact on robbery is another indication that Lott's study is fundamentally flawed.
In scientific terminology, the basic criticism made of Lott's research is that the statistical model he used to reach his conclusions is "misspecified." This means, in part, that he did not adequately account for other factors which have an impact on crime rates - and which provide an alternate explanations for his findings. When a statistical model is misspecified, it cannot be used as the basis from which to draw conclusions about the impact of policy decisions. One clue that a model is misspecified is if it produces implausible findings.
Q: Are there other implausible findings in Lott's research?
A: Yes there are. For example, Lott claims that when states ease restrictions on concealed carry laws, criminals do not stop committing crimes - instead, they switch to crimes that decrease the likelihood that they will come in contact with an armed victim. Specifically, he finds that criminals stop committing rape, murder and aggravated assault, and start stealing cars and committing larceny. That is - they substitute auto theft and knocking off coin-operated machines for rape and murder.
Does anyone really believe that auto theft is a substitute for rape or for murder? Lott's research also suggests that the presence of elderly black women in the population is associated with higher rates of murder and auto theft despite the fact that these women are neither perpetrators nor victims of these types of crime.
Q: I'm confused-isn't it true that there is very little, if any, evidence that changes in carry laws have an impact on actual gun carrying?
A: True. One of the biggest mysteries is how changes in carry laws effects changes the risk that a criminal predator will confront an armed victim. Survey research suggests that the percentage of people who report carrying a gun, at least some of the time, exceeds the percentage of people who have a license to carry a gun. And even if the odds did change, why wouldn't criminals respond by becoming more likely to carry a gun themselves, more likely to shoot their victims, and more likely to attack from behind. Certainly, this is more likely to happen than a rapist becoming an auto thief.
Q: John Lott's claim is "more guns, less crime," but a substantial portion of that claim is based on his use of two voter exit polls. Can he use these polls to make this claim? And, does the evidence support the claim?
A: No. Lott inappropriately uses two voter exit polls to make assertions about changes in the level of gun ownership by adults in 14 states, and then compounds his mistake by using this data to make the assertion that "states with the largest increases in gun ownership also have the largest drops in violent crimes."
First, according to the Voter News Service (the organization responsible for the 1996 poll) their data is designed to be nationally representative, but does not provide representative data about individual states. Second, according to the Voter News Service it is not possible to compare the 1988 and 1996 exit poll numbers on gun ownership because of differences in how the questions were asked. The fact that making the comparison produces results about changes in the level of gun ownership in America that are wildly out of whack with other survey data support this conclusion.
By comparing the two exit polls, and applying a formula that he devised, Lott concludes that the percentage of adults who own a firearm increased by 50% from 1988 to 1996, and the gun ownership among women increased at the fastest pace - yet, the best available evidence on gun ownership (from the General Social Survey) indicates that gun ownership has remained essentially unchanged for men and women since at least 1980. (Changes in Firearm Ownership Among Women, 1980-1994; Journal of Criminal Law and Criminology, Fall 1995) Because Lott has inappropriately misused the exit polls in conducting his study, and so radically miscalculated changes in gun ownership, it is simply impossible for him to make any assertions about the relationship between changes in gun ownership and the crime rate.
Q: Is it true that law enforcement has consistently been opposed to weakening carry concealed weapons laws?
A: Yes, and for good reason. Law enforcement does not favor allowing more citizens to carry guns as a solution to crime problems. Police feel that an armed citizenry jeopardizes their safety, and public safety in general. When more citizens are armed, police officers have to approach every vehicle stop, every contact with a citizen, as a potential contact with an armed individual. Furthermore, law enforcement has been instrumental in defeating efforts to ease CCW restrictions all across the country, because they know the responsibility involved with carrying a concealed weapon.
Proponents of this legislation contend that citizens will be adequately trained to handle firearms responsibly, but this is rarely true. Police departments require officers to go through a great deal of safety and proficiency training before being issued a gun - followed by regular refresher courses and qualifications throughout the officer's career. Citizens armed under the provisions of non-discretionary carry laws are not so highly trained, and frequently not trained at all, thereby further increasing the risk of injury and death with a firearm.
Q: Wouldn't allowing more people to carry concealed handguns increase incidents of citizens attacking each other?
A: Yes. Contrary to John Lott's assertion that "such fears are unfounded," it appears to be increasingly evident that permit holders commit very serious offenses which, unfortunately, are not isolated events. The Texas Department of Public Safety found that felony and misdemeanor cases involving license holders rose from 431 in 1996 to 666 as of mid-December in 1997, a 54.5 percent increase. What makes this particularly disturbing is that Texas has the strictest licensing law of the "shall issue" or non-discretionary states. Texas also has one of the most stringent reporting requirements for CCW infractions. This type of information is either not available from other states or the standard is much more lax for reporting CCW-related events. The information from Texas certainly undermines claims by the gun lobby that only law-abiding citizens will carry.
Q: Do gun traffickers benefit when states ease access to concealed-carry permits?
A: Yes. The Philadelphia Inquirer (Sunday, January 11, 1998) highlighted the problem in that city of CCW license holders involved in gun trafficking. According to the Inquirer, Pennsylvania CCW licensees, who can avoid background checks and waiting periods, are serving as straw purchasers getting handguns into the illegal markets. In fact, the article concluded CCW licensees are a major source of gun trafficking: according to Stephen T. Haskins, a senior ATF special agent, "We are experiencing more straw purchasing in Philadelphia because they changed the requirement for the permit to carry."
The following are just some of the studies critical of John Lott's More Guns, Less Crime (where available, a link to the study or abstract is included):
* Franklin Zimring and Gordon Hawkins, "Concealed Handgun Permits: The Case of the Counterfeit Deterrent," The Responsive Community, Vol. 2, Issue 7 (Spring 1997).
* Dan Webster, Jon S. Vernick, Jens Ludwig and K.J. Lester, "Flawed gun policy research could endanger public safety," American Journal of Public Health, Vol. 87, No. 6, pp. 918-921 (June1997)
http://www.ajph.org/cgi/content/abstract/87/6/918
* Dan Black and Daniel Nagin, "Do 'Right-to-Carry' Laws Deter Violent Crime?" Journal of Legal Studies, Vol. 27, No. 1, pp. 209-213 (January 1998).
* Jens Ludwig, "Concealed-Gun-Carrying Laws and Violent Crime: Evidence from State Panel Data," International Review of Law and Economics, Vol. 18, No. 3, pp. 239 - 254 (September 1998).
http://www.elsevier.nl/cgi-bin/cas/tree...i?year=1998&volume=18&issue=3&aid=5072
* Daniel Webster and Jens Ludwig, "Myths about Defensive Gun Use and Permissive Gun Carry Laws," prepared for the "Strengthening the Public Health Debate on Handguns, Crime, and Safety" meeting, October 1999.
http://www.jhsph.edu/bin/u/c/myths.pdf
* Mark Duggan, "More Guns, More Crime," National Bureau of Economic Research, NBER Working Paper No. W7967, October 2000 papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=245849 and Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 109, No. 5.
http://www.journals.uchicago.edu/JPE/jo...09n5/019506/brief/019506.abstract.html
* Michael D. Maltz and Joseph Targonski, "A Note on the Use of County-Level UCR Data," Journal of Quantitative Criminology, September 2002.
http://tigger.uic.edu/~mikem/Cnty_UCR.PDF
* Conservative scientist Robert Ehrlich was critical of Lott's theory in his book, Nine Crazy Ideas in Science. Reason magazine featured a critique by Ehrlich in its August-September 2001 issue.
http://reason.com/0108/fe.re.the.shtml