Climate change denial, as David Bellamys claims show, is based on pure hocus pocus
By George Monbiot. Published in the Guardian 10th May 2005
For the past three weeks, a set of figures has been working a hole in my mind. On April 16th, New Scientist published a letter from the famous botanist David Bellamy. Many of the worlds glaciers, he claimed, are not shrinking but in fact are growing.
555 of all the 625 glaciers under observation by the World Glacier Monitoring Service in Zurich, Switzerland, have been growing since 1980.(1) His letter was instantly taken up by climate change deniers. And it began to worry me. What if Bellamy was right?
He is a scientist, formerly a senior lecturer at the University of Durham. He knows, in other words, that you cannot credibly cite data unless it is well-sourced. Could it be that one of the main lines of evidence of the impacts of global warming the retreat of the worlds glaciers was wrong?
The question could scarcely be more important. If man-made climate change is happening, as the great majority of the worlds climatologists claim, it could destroy the conditions which allow human beings to remain on the planet. The effort to cut greenhouse gases must come before everything else. This wont happen unless we can be confident that the science is right. Because Bellamy is president of the Conservation Foundation, the Wildlife Trusts, Plantlife International and the British Naturalists Association, his statements carry a great deal of weight. When, for example, I challenged the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders over climate change, its spokesman cited Bellamys position as a reason for remaining sceptical.(2)
So last week I telephoned the World Glacier Monitoring Service and read out Bellamys letter. I dont think the response would have been published in Nature, but it had the scientific virtue of clarity. This is complete bullshit.(3) A few hours later, they sent me an email.
Despite his scientific reputation, he makes all the mistakes that are possible. He had cited data which was simply false, failed to provide references, completely misunderstood the scientific context and neglected current scientific literature.(4) The latest studies show unequivocally that most of the worlds glaciers are retreating.(5)
But I still couldnt put the question out of my mind. The figures Bellamy cited must have come from somewhere. I emailed him to ask for his source. After several requests, he replied to me at the end of last week. The data, he said, came from a website called
www.iceagenow.com.
Iceagenow.com was constructed by a man called Robert W. Felix to promote his self-published book about the coming ice age. It claims that sea levels are falling, not rising; that the Asian tsunami was caused by the ice age cycle; and that underwater volcanic activity not human activity is heating the seas.
Is Felix a climatologist, a vulcanologist, or an oceanographer? Er, none of the above. His biography describes him as a former architect.(6) His website is so bonkers that I thought at first it was a spoof. Sadly, he appears to believe what he says. But there indeed was all the material Bellamy cited in his letter, including the figures or something resembling the figures he quoted. Since 1980, there has been an advance of more than 55% of the 625 mountain glaciers under observation by the World Glacier Monitoring group in Zurich.(7) The source, which Bellamy also cited in his email to me, was given as the latest issue of 21st Century Science and Technology.
21st Century Science and Technology? It sounds impressive, until you discover that it is published by Lyndon Larouche. Lyndon Larouche is the American demagogue who in 1989 received a 15-year sentence for conspiracy, mail fraud and tax code violations.(8) He has claimed that the British royal family is running an international drugs syndicate,(9) that Henry Kissinger is a communist agent,(10) that the British government is controlled by Jewish bankers,(11) and that modern science is a conspiracy against human potential.(12)
It wasnt hard to find out that this is one of his vehicles: Larouche is named on the front page of the magazines website, and the edition Bellamy cites contains an article beginning with the words We in LaRouches Youth Movement find ourselves in combat with an old enemy that destroys human beings
it is empiricism.(13)
Oh well, at least there is a source for Bellamys figures. But where did 21st Century Science and Technology get them from? It doesnt say. But I think we can make an informed guess, for the same data can be found all over the internet. They were first published online by Professor Fred Singer, one of the very few climate change deniers who has a vaguely relevant qualification (he is, or was, an environmental scientist). He posted them on his website
www.sepp.org, and they were then reproduced by the appropriately named junkscience.com, by the Cooler Heads Coalition, the National Center for Public Policy Research and countless others.(14) They have even found their way into the Washington Post.(15) They are constantly quoted as evidence that manmade climate change is not happening. But where did they come from? Singer cites half a source: a paper published in Science in 1989″.(16) Well, the paper might be 16 years old, but at least, and at last, there is one. Surely?
I went through every edition of Science published in 1989, both manually and electronically. Not only did it contain nothing resembling those figures; throughout that year there was no paper published in this journal about glacial advance or retreat.
So it wasnt looking too good for Bellamy, or Singer, or any of the deniers who have cited these figures. But there was still one mystery to clear up. While Bellamys source claimed that 55% of 625 glaciers are advancing, Bellamy claimed that 555 of them or 89% are advancing. This figure appears to exist nowhere else. But on the standard English keyboard, 5 and % occupy the same key. If you try to hit %, but fail to press shift, you get 555, instead of 55%. This is the only explanation I can produce for his figure. When I challenged him, he admitted that there had been a glitch of the electronics.(17)
So, in Bellamys poor typing, we have the basis for a whole new front in the war against climate science. The 555 figure is now being cited as definitive evidence that global warming is a fraud, a scam, a lie. I phoned New Scientist to ask if he had requested a correction. He had not been in touch.(18)
It is hard to convey just how selective you have to be to dismiss the evidence for climate change. You must climb over a mountain of evidence to pick up a crumb: a crumb which then disintegrates in your palm. You must ignore an entire canon of science, the statements of the worlds most eminent scientific institutions, and thousands of papers published in the foremost scientific journals. You must, if you are David Bellamy, embrace instead the claims of an eccentric former architect, which are based on what appears to be a non-existent data set. And you must do all this while calling yourself a scientist.
www.monbiot.com
