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Solar Farms

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BoberFett said:
You do if the ROI exceeds the cost to borrow.
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ROI is a projection, it is in no way guaranteed, it is always a gamble. So, investors have to decide is the projected ROI is high enough to justify the risk. In a lot of cases with small ROI, or a ROI that takes years to realize, it simply is not worth the risk.
 
Darwin333 said:
Do you have any links of existing and fully operational solar farms being shut down? It doesn't make a bit of sense, there is virtually no upkeep costs once the plant is operational other than maybe a few guys with water hoses to clean the panels a few times a year. Except for very significant impacts the panels never break so rarely does a panel need to be replaced (the first solar cell ever made still works today). The inverter will eventually need to be replaced but even those are usually guaranteed/warrantied for 15 years.
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I know there was a moratorium on new construction a while ago. Although there are some stories out there about shutdowns on a small scale it seems like the big bankruptcies and closings are coming now with recent subsidy cuts and the Spanish government itself is talking about shutting down 5GW of solar production. Any way you slice things, it looks pretty terrible for solar industry in Spain and EU
 
SMOGZINN said:
ROI is a projection, it is in no way guaranteed, it is always a gamble. So, investors have to decide is the projected ROI is high enough to justify the risk. In a lot of cases with small ROI, or a ROI that takes years to realize, it simply is not worth the risk.
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Correct. So let's think about how that applies to solar.

Clearly the market has spoken and said that solar at this point in time is not viable. Until either

  • other energy generation methods production can't keep up with demand,
  • some kind of fee/tax is put on those methods (likely as an cleanup fee or externality tax) that makes solar more attractive,
  • or there's a massive improvement in the efficiency of solar tech which improves it's power generation per $ invested,

it will not be viable. Note that all of these directly affect the ROI calculations.

This all seems pretty straightforward to me.
 
Solar. Meh.

We should be building current gen nuke plants. The anti-nuke movement royally fucked over all mankind and the insanity just keeps rolling.
 
BoberFett said:
Correct. So let's think about how that applies to solar.

Clearly the market has spoken and said that solar at this point in time is not viable. Until either

  • other energy generation methods production can't keep up with demand,
  • some kind of fee/tax is put on those methods (likely as an cleanup fee or externality tax) that makes solar more attractive,
  • or there's a massive improvement in the efficiency of solar tech which improves it's power generation per $ invested,

it will not be viable. Note that all of these directly affect the ROI calculations.

This all seems pretty straightforward to me.
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Spain built a shitload of surplus generation capacity in anticipation of growth that never materialized. Mostly gas turbines which they are going to have to mothball and some CSP plants. Their particular fucked position is not really applicable to the market for solar energy as whole.

Here in the US for example solar accounted for 20% of new generation installed in 2013, it will probably be closer to 40% this year. Permits are backed up the ass lots of places to get rooftop solar approved because so many people want it now or the utility has to cobble together a plan to accommodate new patterns of usage and generation.
 
K1052 said:
Spain built a shitload of surplus generation capacity in anticipation of growth that never materialized. Mostly gas turbines which they are going to have to mothball and some CSP plants. Their particular fucked position is not really applicable to the market for solar energy as whole.

Here in the US for example solar accounted for 20% of new generation installed in 2013, it will probably be closer to 40% this year. Permits are backed up the ass lots of places to get rooftop solar approved because so many people want it now or the utility has to cobble together a plan to accommodate new patterns of usage and generation.
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There's nothing inherently wrong with solar. It's just that with current technologies (especially battery storage) its economically viable uses are relatively few and fairly incremental (like hot water supply for home plumbing, running attic fans, etc). It doesn't have the 24/7 availability to provide baseline electric power generation and needs an assist from peaking plants (mainly gas-fired) to maintain the integrity of the electric grid. It's basically useless as a power source for transportation.

Maybe at some point things will change or some amazing new technology will be invented that addresses some of the current shortcomings, but right now solar power is more of a vanity project when it comes to large-scale installations since it needs subsidies to be viable. That's not to say we shouldn't look for inventive new applications for it, but at least be honest about what it can and can't do.
 
glenn1 said:
There's nothing inherently wrong with solar. It's just that with current technologies (especially battery storage) its economically viable uses are relatively few and fairly incremental (like hot water supply for home plumbing, running attic fans, etc). It doesn't have the 24/7 availability to provide baseline electric power generation and needs an assist from peaking plants (mainly gas-fired) to maintain the integrity of the electric grid. It's basically useless as a power source for transportation.

Maybe at some point things will change or some amazing new technology will be invented that addresses some of the current shortcomings, but right now solar power is more of a vanity project when it comes to large-scale installations since it needs subsidies to be viable. That's not to say we shouldn't look for inventive new applications for it, but at least be honest about what it can and can't do.
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Solar typically provides peak power at the same times as peak demand. As the percentage of solar increases utilities will need to come up with ways to keep their grids stable until local storage becomes more of a reality. If we can get battery storage down under $200 kWh (Musk says he can FWTIW) then the problems basically solve themselves.

My position is that we should use modern nukes for all the base load power and renewable for everything else. About the only things you can't really use electricity for in the transportation sector is long haul trucking and aircraft.
 
BoberFett said:
Except that he's right. If a project has a positive ROI, then being broke isn't an issue, capital can be found.
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QFT

SMOGZINN said:
You know this is not a bad idea. Elevate the mirrors over the parking lot, and you not only generate electricity for the store, but create shade for the parking lot. In some of the hot sunny climates like Texas this could work.
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Yep. I did a theater in Corvallis, Oregon and they made us provide bicycle racks for 1/2 the theater capacity, half of which had to be covered. That's a significant expense. If however that shade was made of solar panels, then it costs more up front but also returns some revenue for the next couple decades.

JEDIYoda said:
Unless it can`t be found!! If you are broke you do not go out and borrow....
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Dude, are you seriously going to argue that broke governments don't go out and borrow?
 
K1052 said:
Solar typically provides peak power at the same times as peak demand. As the percentage of solar increases utilities will need to come up with ways to keep their grids stable until local storage becomes more of a reality. If we can get battery storage down under $200 kWh (Musk says he can FWTIW) then the problems basically solve themselves.

My position is that we should use modern nukes for all the base load power and renewable for everything else. About the only things you can't really use electricity for in the transportation sector is long haul trucking and aircraft.
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Well said. Also, the shifting prevalence of natural gas over coal will make that easier, as gas turbines inherently react more quickly and more reliably to demand variances than do coal-fired burners. For that matter, so do gas-fired boilers.

Nukes aren't all sweetness and light either though. The waste heat generated is immense, requiring a LOT of water which is heated to levels which are anathema to most macro fauna. A killer technology will be waste heat recycling, using technology similar to solar but capturing heat spectra waves rather than visible light. Adopting smaller thorium-fired nuclear plants should help as well.
 
Well ,when the earth runs out of oil, and it will, sooner than later, the focus on alternative energy for profit will ramp up like the proverbial bat out of hell, what with all the money hoarders already positioning themselves to be "first-come-last-one-standing" in this energy producing field.
 
tweaker2 said:
Well ,when the earth runs out of oil, and it will, sooner than later, the focus on alternative energy for profit will ramp up like the proverbial bat out of hell, what with all the money hoarders already positioning themselves to be "first-come-last-one-standing" in this energy producing field.
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Sure, once oil runs out the economics of energy will change, just like once we enter a new Ice Age (and we will!) that will change the economics. And when the Sun goes red giant that will change the economics again. But it's all moot anyway, if we run out of oil in the near term we're all fucked because there's no realistic way we can maintain our current lifestyles with solar power, or even probably anywhere close.
 
Zaap said:
Solar. Meh.

We should be building current gen nuke plants. The anti-nuke movement royally fucked over all mankind and the insanity just keeps rolling.
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We should also put windmills on everything. People greatly underestimate how much energy is in the air.
amazon - $400 for 400W. Look at the dimensions on it. It's tiny. Some day we'll see these on every building.


If you're feeling adventurous, you can build your own wind generator. All you need is a fan, a car alternator, and a 12V battery. The 12v battery provides the stator field in the alternator, and then the fan turns the alternator to generate power, some of which feeds back into the battery. A 200 amp alternator from the junk yard can put out 2kw of power if there's enough wind to spin it.
 
K1052 said:
Solar typically provides peak power at the same times as peak demand. As the percentage of solar increases utilities will need to come up with ways to keep their grids stable until local storage becomes more of a reality. If we can get battery storage down under $200 kWh (Musk says he can FWTIW) then the problems basically solve themselves.
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Local storage is bypassed by having solar plants generate electricity 24/7.

They use molten salt. I just don't know why this hasn't taken off in popularity yet.
 
I'm surrounded by the windmills, there's probably over 100 in the county and i can see around 20 of them from my place...
 
The only danger I see is if the price of electricity drops suddenly because we find a new way to produce power like cold fusion. Of course here in the Midwest and south there is also the danger of tornadoes and hurricanes floods, earthquakes, wind damage and major hail damage. That is why people have insurance.

I have heard of doing this in places like a pig farm. Pigs just sit around eat and get fat.
 
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piasabird said:
The only danger I see is if the price of electricity drops suddenly because we find a new way to produce power like cold fusion. Of course here in the Midwest and south there is also the danger of tornadoes and hurricanes floods, earthquakes, wind damage and major hail damage. That is why people have insurance.

I have heard of doing this in places like a pig farm. Pigs just sit around eat and get fat.
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...like...cold....fusion...
 
Jaskalas said:
Local storage is bypassed by having solar plants generate electricity 24/7.

They use molten salt. I just don't know why this hasn't taken off in popularity yet.
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because such farms need to be at high elevation and in areas that receive reliable amount of sunlight, and that's before considering cost effectiveness

piasabird said:
The only danger I see is if the price of electricity drops suddenly because we find a new way to produce power like cold fusion. Of course here in the Midwest and south there is also the danger of tornadoes and hurricanes floods, earthquakes, wind damage and major hail damage. That is why people have insurance.

I have heard of doing this in places like a pig farm. Pigs just sit around eat and get fat.
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don't need any form of fantastical fusion, modern nuclear tech is good enough to undercut cost of coal: http://youtu.be/ayIyiVua8cY
 
Mr. Pedantic said:
...like...cold....fusion...
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Free energy ain't free. Wind power is a perfect example. Wind is free, so wind power should be free, right? Of course not. We need to build something to collect this "free" energy. We need to connect it to the rest of the grid. We need to maintain it.
Even if we did have some kind of cold fusion power generation, it would not be free. If gasoline were free, driving would still cost money. You still need tires, insurance, and maintenance.

In the end, the cheapest form of power will be the one that requires the least amount of maintenance. This is why so much power generation is done using coal. Coal by itself might be expensive because millions of tons of coal are required, but maintenance costs are minimal because it's such a simple system.
 
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