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Social Experiment time

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Since my uneducated guess is that you work for the black knight in the holy grail as his ass I'm going to guess that the answer is 0 since he has no time for this while he is busy biting peoples legs off.

 
Originally posted by: sactoking
I'm running a little social experiment. It will be formatted thusly: I will provide you with a scenario. What I need from you is a range of values whereby you are 98% sure the true value will fall within your range.

For example, if the scenario were "How many people in Reno will die today" I would feel 98% sure that 0-5 people will die today, so my answer is '0-5'.

Your scenario: How many bonds did my employer write for the 2008 calendar year?

Thanks for your help!


Between 0 and 1 trillion
 
Originally posted by: DrPizza
Originally posted by: Krazy4Real
Originally posted by: TuxDave
0-1 billion

I like to be safe.

0-1 trillion

I like to be safer! 🙂

But that's 100% certainty. The OP specified "98% certainty"

How much lower than 1 trillion do you have to go before you're 2% less certain?

I think the 2% uncertainty is mostly due to the fact that we don't know jack about what's a realistic number of bonds that an employer CAN sell. 🙂
 
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