So, WW3?

mikeymikec

Lifer
May 19, 2011
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On imgur some guy was saying that if Russia invaded some NATO country rather than Ukraine then it would be "totally different" (without elaborating on what that entailed), as well as that the West aren't going to risk WW3 / a nuclear exchange for the sake of Ukraine. AFAIK the NATO proposition is that an attack on one is an attack on all, but considering that Russia is invading Ukraine based on a BS argument we don't know with confidence what their endgame for this conflict actually is, for example will Russia attempt to invade other countries.

So, if the West / EU / NATO have cold feet about a military response to Russia for invading Ukraine based on wanting to avoid WW3 / nukes, then is say Poland really that different in their view. I think conservative values, eg. FYGM and a splash of NIMBY are relevant here. NATO is largely steered by US policy, and it worries me that the GQP have been increasingly cosy with Putin, and also how the likes of Fox are spinning this invasion. I'm slightly reassured by McConnell's statement here:


But the GQP's attitude towards Putin has mostly been to protect Russia while attacking the Democratic party and claiming that stuff is their fault, and coming back to my point about NATO being largely steered by the US, that if the US is not showing a united front towards Putin then can we honestly expect NATO to be completely unaffected by this. Trump spent time undermining America's relationship with NATO and I think he did it to appease Putin for whatever reasons (admiration, debt with Russian banks, who knows), and could that mean that NATO might not step up when Russia possibly attempts salami tactics against a NATO country.

I wish I had a decent idea about why Russia is invading Ukraine. Is Putin seeking to revive what he perceives to be the glory days of the USSR, or some similar ego-based objective, or is there a logically more sound objective in mind?

It also worries me that AFAIK China made a statement warning Russia about military action in Ukraine yet since then has "shared its security concerns" and refused to condemn the invasion. I'm wondering if China wants a quid pro quo situation with Russia so it turns a blind eye to Russia's ambitions while it has ambitions elsewhere (Taiwan?), and they move forward and have each other's backs?

PS: Personally, US + EU + UK should have a completely united front and say to Russia that if they invade Ukraine then they should expect a military response from all of them, no ifs and no buts, with an addendum that Russia should always expect this response if they get any further ideas of 'breathing room' in future, and on the flipside, those borders aren't going to change positions because US/EU/UK want "breathing room".

More IMO: It matters little whether it's Ukraine or a NATO country like say Poland. If it comes to a nuclear exchange, I doubt anyone writing the history books is going to give two craps whether the last straw was Ukraine or Poland or pretty much any other country for that matter, it's likely to be a global shit sandwich.
 

maluckey1

Senior member
Mar 15, 2018
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@mikeymikeIt's very clear what Putin wants, and Ukraine isn't a NATO country. This shouldn't have happened, but it did. It's not a "D" or "R" thing. It's a "Russian thing" that they want the land that created their very name back.

While the United States and NATO was worrying about genteel matters, Russia was prepping for war. Anyone who thinks that a man who poses shirtless with a tiger gives a shit about words is sadly mistaken.
 

JTsyo

Lifer
Nov 18, 2007
11,197
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The whole point of NATO is mutual defense. In Biden's speech he said NATO would fight for every inch of NATO land. I don't think Russia is foolish enough to think it's a bluff.
 

eelw

Diamond Member
Dec 4, 1999
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I'd think a Russian civil war would happen first before it escalated any further. Someone will attempt to assassinate Putin and then he'd have the battle in his backyard.
 

Pens1566

Diamond Member
Oct 11, 2005
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NATO is largely driven by Europe/EU policies, but backed up mostly with US forces. It makes a little sense when you think of it as most of the immediate risk/consequences are local to the EU area.

As for Poland, there absolutely would be a NATO response. Too many members have advanced troops stationed there on a rotating basis to not do anything. Honestly I'd be shocked if anything more than an "error" attack/incursion to ANY member would be ignored or not responded to. I'm talking stray shell or "single vehicle gets lost" sort of thing.

Putin has to know this, and know that basically once a country joins they're off his conquest list forever (or until the alliance dissolves). This is where he's fucked up here. I really think this is going to cause Sweden/Finland to become members.
 

gothuevos

Golden Member
Jul 28, 2010
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NATO is largely driven by Europe/EU policies, but backed up mostly with US forces. It makes a little sense when you think of it as most of the immediate risk/consequences are local to the EU area.

As for Poland, there absolutely would be a NATO response. Too many members have advanced troops stationed there on a rotating basis to not do anything. Honestly I'd be shocked if anything more than an "error" attack/incursion to ANY member would be ignored or not responded to. I'm talking stray shell or "single vehicle gets lost" sort of thing.

Putin has to know this, and know that basically once a country joins they're off his conquest list forever (or until the alliance dissolves). This is where he's fucked up here. I really think this is going to cause Sweden/Finland to become members.
So Finland borders Russia too. Won't this lead to the same thing?
 
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gothuevos

Golden Member
Jul 28, 2010
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Why would it? There was no movement on Ukraine joining NATO anytime soon. Nothing.

Also, NATO has bordered RU/USSR since its inception.

It's a red herring, nothing more.
I don't disagree with you, just saying that it will likely be used again as an excuse for conflict.

Especially if there's fast tracking of admission for those countries.
 

Pens1566

Diamond Member
Oct 11, 2005
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I don't disagree with you, just saying that it will likely be used again as an excuse for conflict.

Especially if there's fast tracking of admission for those countries.
Well I'm seeing that he's mentioned both countries in a threatening manor in a statement earlier today. They're also both already participating in a NATO meeting today (or was it yesterday?) due to joint defense partnerships outside the alliance.
 

gothuevos

Golden Member
Jul 28, 2010
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Well I'm seeing that he's mentioned both countries in a threatening manor in a statement earlier today. They're also both already participating in a NATO meeting today (or was it yesterday?) due to joint defense partnerships outside the alliance.
So why stir the pot? Why the need to expand NATO at this moment? There is no imminent threat to Finland or Sweden if they don't join.

Putin won't be in power for. Sometimes it's just better to wait things out.

 

Pens1566

Diamond Member
Oct 11, 2005
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So why stir the pot? Why the need to expand NATO at this moment? There is no imminent threat to Finland or Sweden if they don't join.

Putin won't be in power for. Sometimes it's just better to wait things out.

Stir the pot? They're reacting by (possibly) taking the only path that prevents an aggression.

The "no imminent threat" line in reference to NATO membership just went out the window due to an attack on another nation that ... checks notes ... wasn't attempting to join either.
 
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GodisanAtheist

Diamond Member
Nov 16, 2006
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Top google search result in Finland today "How to join NATO as quickly as possible".

Seriously those guys better move their asses while Russia is occupied. Technically countries "engaged in an active conflict" cannot join NATO and Putin was more than happy to cock-block Ukraine using that loophole.

Can bet your sweet cheeks as soon as Ukraine is in Russia's pocket, he's going to start shit stirring with other post-bloc countries to make sure they disqualify from inclusion.

The Sweden figures they'll get to use Finland as the canary in the coal mine to determine their own NATO membership since Russia would need to get through them to get to Sweden. Ironically Finland joining NATO would likely result in Sweden feeling like it would not have to thanks to the Article 5 buffer state between them and Russia at that point.
 

Pens1566

Diamond Member
Oct 11, 2005
8,522
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Top google search result in Finland today "How to join NATO as quickly as possible".

Seriously those guys better move their asses while Russia is occupied. Technically countries "engaged in an active conflict" cannot join NATO and Putin was more than happy to cock-block Ukraine using that loophole.

Can bet your sweet cheeks as soon as Ukraine is in Russia's pocket, he's going to start shit stirring with other post-bloc countries to make sure they disqualify from inclusion.

The Sweden figures they'll get to use Finland as the canary in the coal mine to determine their own NATO membership since Russia would need to get through them to get to Sweden. Ironically Finland joining NATO would likely result in Sweden feeling like it would not have to thanks to the Article 5 buffer state between them and Russia at that point.
I'm not sure Sweden would be that comforted by the fact that Finland is between them. They're closer to Kaliningrad on the Baltic than Finland, and I believe they already have a separate mutual defense treaty with Finland. If they get dragged in, they'll want more than just that treaty backing them up.
 
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Jul 9, 2009
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Just think, your boy Trump was feeding him intel in exchange for Putin's help convincing you to vote for him. Not that you needed convincing.
President Trump was sending anti-tank Javelins to the Ukraine. A practice that Biden stopped.

but go ahead and lie about it.
 
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dank69

Lifer
Oct 6, 2009
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President Trump was sending anti-tank Javelins to the Ukraine. A practice that Biden stopped.

but go ahead and lie about it.
You seem to be leaving out the terms of sale that they are not to be used against Russia, put in there by your boy Trump:

but go ahead and lie about it.
 
Jul 9, 2009
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You seem to be leaving out the terms of sale that they are not to be used against Russia, put in there by your boy Trump:

but go ahead and lie about it.
Once they were in the possession of the Ukraine, they'll be used as the Ukrainians want them to be used. Which is why the Russians are having a much harder time of it than they anticipated.
 

dainthomas

Lifer
Dec 7, 2004
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I'm not sure Sweden would be that comforted by the fact that Finland is between them. They're closer to Kaliningrad on the Baltic than Finland, and I believe they already have a separate mutual defense treaty with Finland. If they get dragged in, they'll want more than just that treaty backing them up.
If anyone living in Sweden speaks Russian, they might want to join up just in case. Apparently that's the only justification needed for invasion now.
 
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cytg111

Lifer
Mar 17, 2008
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Once they were in the possession of the Ukraine, they'll be used as the Ukrainians want them to be used. Which is why the Russians are having a much harder time of it than they anticipated.
You must take a shitton of painmeds for the size of that denial sticking out your head.
 
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Dave_5k

Senior member
May 23, 2017
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President Trump was sending anti-tank Javelins to the Ukraine. A practice that Biden stopped.

but go ahead and lie about it.
From that first article… 2 Javelin launchers and missiles valued at $39 million. Yay. That Trump personally delayed and tried to block to extort political support. Puti was very scared.

Biden fast tracked a slightly larger supply…
22 launchers visible in just that one pallet, one of 4 shipments valued at $200 million.
 

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