So the Dollar...

[digitalsm]

Ah what a difference a few weeks make. Quite a lot of people were saying the sky is falling on the dollar, and that foreign investors are going to switch to the Euro. That merican economic and monetary policies aren't working. Low and behold Europeans are calling for either the ditching of the Euro, or reforming the Euro towards an American style.

Haha, no offense Europe, but you're screwed.

The French are calling for the franc, the Italians the lira, Britain is not going to have a referendum on the Euro. German officials have even talked about the euros demise.

France and Holland voting no on the constitution have pretty much ended the EU as it was envisioned. No one wants to give up their sovereignty or their democracy.

 

[sandorski]

They're not screwed, just wondering what's next after the French and Dutch Constitutional rejection. Don't gloat yet, US economic policy isn't working and in the coming weeks Dollar/Euro values will settle out as before.

 

[BarneyFife]

The Euro has ruined Europe. Inflation in countries such as Italy and Greece has caused hardship. We are talking about 200% increases in a lot of things. I hope the Euro goes down in flames because it was nothing more than the wealthy elites of Europe trying to compete with the US dollar.

 

[digitalsm]

Originally posted by: sandorski
They're not screwed, just wondering what's next after the French and Dutch Constitutional rejection. Don't gloat yet, US economic policy isn't working and in the coming weeks Dollar/Euro values will settle out as before.

The US will probably go through another short recession. The Euro will NOT stabilize, the problems will get worse as more speculation and forecasts of its demise start happening. America is a lot better off with the weak dollar than Europe has been with a "strong" euro, and the euro is in for a rockey few months, or more.

 

[Infohawk]

Originally posted by: digitalsm
Haha, no offense Europe, but you're screwed.

Do you think Europe is a person? I'm sick of the personnifications of countries.

The French are calling for the franc, the Italians the lira, Britain is not going to have a referendum on the Euro. German officials have even talked about the euros demise.

France and Holland voting no on the constitution have pretty much ended the EU as it was envisioned. No one wants to give up their sovereignty or their democracy.

You have no idea what you are talking about. You take one limited event and proclaim the end of Europe. Europe has already acheived very impressive goals. This is not even a setback if you consider that this was just not the right document.

"Haha, no offense digitalism" but it was haters like you who were laughing about the Euro long ago and then had to STFU when it surpassed the dollar.

Try to keep your emotional posts to a minimum. You are just someone who wants Europe to fail for because of some hate-trip you are on. If you want to argue that Europe really is going to fail, you need to come up with actual arguments, not anecdotes.

 

[digitalsm]

Originally posted by: Infohawk

Originally posted by: digitalsm
Haha, no offense Europe, but you're screwed.

Do you think Europe is a person? I'm sick of the personnifications of countries.

The French are calling for the franc, the Italians the lira, Britain is not going to have a referendum on the Euro. German officials have even talked about the euros demise.

France and Holland voting no on the constitution have pretty much ended the EU as it was envisioned. No one wants to give up their sovereignty or their democracy.

You have no idea what you are talking about. You take one limited event and proclaim the end of Europe. Europe has already acheived very impressive goals. This is not even a setback if you consider that this was just not the right document.

"Haha, no offense digitalism" but it was jackasses like you who were laughing about the Euro long ago and then had to STFU when it surpassed the dollar.

Try to keep your emotional posts to a minimum. You are just someone who wants Europe to fail for because of some hate-trip you are on. If you want to argue that Europe really is going to fail, you need to come up with actual arguments, not anecdotes.

Yes yes yes, thats why Tony Blair has abandoned his dream of the EU. Thats why elected officals in Germany have openley questioned the Euro. Thats why Italy is wanting to revert to the Lire. The french public have openly called for the Franc. European markets are already making adjustments incase of the demise of the Euro. Its not BS.

And while the Euro did pass the dollar, the americans are the ones that allowed that. Most EU countries are suffering economically because of the Euro. Europe has had high inflation and high unemployment for quite a few number years.

The French rejection may have been one a event, but it wasnt minor, and is a gigantic setback. France is one of the three main EU countries. Its people rejecting the constitution has sent shockwaves through other countries, and a domino effect is resulting.

Im not proclaiming the end of Europe, or the EU. Im proclaiming the end of the EU as originally envisioned. It will never happen. The EU will continue to exist but not the way it was planned.

You are extremely naive if you believe the French rejection is a limited event.

 

[Infohawk]

Originally posted by: digitalsm
Yes yes yes, thats why Tony Blair has abandoned his dream of the EU.

WTF are you talking about? What dream? What is the proof he's abandoned it?

Thats why elected officals in Germany have openley questioned the Euro. Thats why Italy is wanting to revert to the Lire. The french public have openly called for the Franc. Its not BS.

Who cares? This is just rhetoric. Bush is calling for the end of social security, doesn't mean it's going to happen. Fundies are calling for a theocracy, doesn't mean it's going to happen.

And while the Euro did pass the dollar, the americans are the ones that allowed that.

How is that?

Most EU countries are suffering economically because of the Euro. Europe has had high inflation and high unemployment for quite a few number years.

Europe has had high unemployment long before the Euro.

The French rejection may have been one a event, but it wasnt minor, and is a gigantic setback. France is one of the three main EU countries. Its people rejecting the constitution has sent shockwaves through other countries, and a domino effect is resulting.

Where is this resulting domino effect? This particular constitution is probably not going to happen. There can be another one. Do you realize the US constitution wasn't the first attempt at a constitution in the US?

Im proclaiming the end of the EU as originally envisioned.

How was it envisioned? :laugh: There was no ONE vision. Much of what has already happened has been a huge success and someone's vision.

It will never happen. The EU will continue to exist but not the way it was planned.

How the fvck do you know? You don't have any evidence. Time isn't ending tomorrow.

This is a great example of black and white, superstitious thinking by P&N conservatives. One limited event is taken as some sort of "sign" that an idea is doomed.

 

[digitalsm]

How is that?

The US could have used monetary policy to prop up the dollar, and Bush has taken alot of flak from people like you for not doing so. If the US had, we would be under alot more economic pressure and have greater problems at this point. Are we in a pickle now? Yes, but we could have been in much worse shape.

Europe has had high unemployment long before the Euro.

High unemployment + high inflation = economic doom.

Where is this resulting domino effect? This particular constitution is probably not going to happen. There can be another one. Do you realize the US constitution wasn't the first attempt at a constitution in the US?

Blair abandoning the campaign for the Euro and Britian abadoning having a referendum on the Euro are pretty big dominos falling.

How was it envisioned? There was no ONE vision. Much of what has already happened has been a huge success and someone's vision.

A unified currency was on the the biggest visions they had. Right now there are anaylsts projecting a partial breakup of the Euro before 2008, and the outright demise by 2020. You have to remember this is NOT the first time Europe has tried a unified currency, each other time has been a failure, and all signs are pointing that way for the Euro at this point.

 

[digitalsm]

You should stop making a fool of yourself by calling it a limited event. Isnt limited nor minor. And while I have conservative/libertarian viewpoints, I have to say I like how you accuse me of making black and white statements while you yourself do the same thing. And thats not just this thread, that every single thread you post in.

 

[Infohawk]

Originally posted by: digitalsm
You should stop making a fool of yourself by calling it a limited event. Isnt limited nor minor.

Okay, so put forth evidence that there will be no political union in the future. You don't have any. It's wishful thinking. I'm not making and black and white claim like you are here. I'm not saying the sky is falling in Europe like you are or that everything is fine and dandy either.

 

[digitalsm]

Originally posted by: Infohawk

Originally posted by: digitalsm
You should stop making a fool of yourself by calling it a limited event. Isnt limited nor minor.

Okay, so put forth evidence that there will be no political union in the future. You don't have any. It's wishful thinking. I'm not making and black and white claim like you are here. I'm not saying the sky is falling in Europe like you are or that everything is fine and dandy either.

Where exactly have I said "there will be no political union in the future". I never have, I have said that about the Euro, not the EU. I have also stated the EU will continue to exist, but not the way the current leaders have envisioned.

 

[Infohawk]

Originally posted by: digitalsm

Originally posted by: Infohawk

Originally posted by: digitalsm
You should stop making a fool of yourself by calling it a limited event. Isnt limited nor minor.

Okay, so put forth evidence that there will be no political union in the future. You don't have any. It's wishful thinking. I'm not making and black and white claim like you are here. I'm not saying the sky is falling in Europe like you are or that everything is fine and dandy either.

Where exactly have I said "there will be no political union in the future". I never have, I have said that about the Euro, not the EU. I have also stated the EU will continue to exist, but not the way the current leaders have envisioned.

And I've repeatedly asked you to define your terms. What is this monolothic vision you think they have? There are 300 million europeans and many visions of what Europe should be. What is your evidence the Euro will be gone except some talk from SOME people? Now you're backpeddling but your first post includes emotional balck and white statements like, "haha no offense Europe, but you're screwed." Sorry I didn't understand that that was a nuanced comment. :roll:

The tone of your post suggests you have some weird competition thing going between Europe and America which you seem awfully invested in on a personal level. They are just ideas. They are not people. More importantly, AMerica's success or Europe's failures simply do not reflect on you in any way.

 

[digitalsm]

Originally posted by: Infohawk

Originally posted by: digitalsm

Originally posted by: Infohawk

Originally posted by: digitalsm
You should stop making a fool of yourself by calling it a limited event. Isnt limited nor minor.

Okay, so put forth evidence that there will be no political union in the future. You don't have any. It's wishful thinking. I'm not making and black and white claim like you are here. I'm not saying the sky is falling in Europe like you are or that everything is fine and dandy either.

Where exactly have I said "there will be no political union in the future". I never have, I have said that about the Euro, not the EU. I have also stated the EU will continue to exist, but not the way the current leaders have envisioned.

And I've repeatedly asked you to define your terms. What is this monolothic vision you think they have? There are 300 million europeans and many visions of what Europe should be. What is your evidence the Euro will be gone except some talk from SOME people? Now you're backpeddling but your first post includes emotional balck and white statements like, "haha no offense Europe, but you're screwed." Sorry I didn't understand that that was a nuanced comment. :roll:

The tone of your post suggests you have some weird competition thing going between Europe and America which you seem awfully invested in on a personal level. They are just ideas. They are not people. More importantly, AMerica's success or Europe's failures simply do not reflect on you in any way.

Umm when I said No offense europe you are screwed, that was meant economically. and in the short term(several years). Upheavel of a currency leads to major economic problems. Eventually it recovers, and in the case of what would happen in Europe if the Euro does go away, things will be much better after recovery, than with the Euro. Thats why European markets are making adjustments.

 

[IEC]

Originally posted by: digitalsm
Ah what a difference a few weeks make. Quite a lot of people were saying the sky is falling on the dollar, and that foreign investors are going to switch to the Euro. That merican economic and monetary policies aren't working. Low and behold Europeans are calling for either the ditching of the Euro, or reforming the Euro towards an American style.

Haha, no offense Europe, but you're screwed.

The French are calling for the franc, the Italians the lira, Britain is not going to have a referendum on the Euro. German officials have even talked about the euros demise.

France and Holland voting no on the constitution have pretty much ended the EU as it was envisioned. No one wants to give up their sovereignty or their democracy.

Posts like this (okay maybe THIS one isn't so bad, but it's representative of the quality of P&N) are what make me stay away from P&N - *leaves forum*

Sure it's okay to post news links, but to show bias is bad.

 

[rahvin]

You won't find much talk of the EU or the Euro in the american media so you better stick to the european news agencies if you want to pick up the chatter on what the vote means and why the currency markets devalued the euro so much after the vote.

What happens now? Nobody is talking about an EU break-up, but there is plenty of speculation, touched on here last week, about the euro. A report last week that Germany?s finance minister and Bundesbank (central bank) president have discussed its demise was swiftly played down but that did not kill the idea of a break-up. Stern, the German magazine that reported the discussion, says the euro is making the Federal Republic?s economy ?kaputt?; no translation needed.

Stuart Thomson, an economist with Charles Stanley Sutherlands, the stockbroker, says in a paper that the French referendum was the beginning of the end for the euro. The collapse of monetary union is inevitable by 2020, he writes, as the European economy comes under increasing pressure, not least from its ageing population. But he also sees a 50% probability of a partial break-up by 2008, with one or more member states withdrawing, partly as a consequence of the currency- market backlash as China and Japan abandon their policy of supporting the dollar through large-scale purchases of US government bonds.

History is on his side. Every previous monetary union in Europe, such as the Latin Monetary Union of 1865-1927, ended in failure.

There is a difference between a ?no? vote on the constitution by EU citizens and a ?yes? to the collapse of monetary union. But the constitution votes by the French and Dutch show that support for the European project is thin and that people?s willingness to make economic sacrifices for what used to be seen as the greater good of EU integration is limited.

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,8211-1641196_2,00.html

It's interesting to read the British peoples opinions on the euro too:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/2976494.stm

 

[fornax]

I sure hope that the dollar stays high or gets even higher. I'm going on a month-long vacation in Europe and I need the extra buying power

 

[HombrePequeno]

Originally posted by: rahvin
You won't find much talk of the EU or the Euro in the american media so you better stick to the european news agencies if you want to pick up the chatter on what the vote means and why the currency markets devalued the euro so much after the vote.

What happens now? Nobody is talking about an EU break-up, but there is plenty of speculation, touched on here last week, about the euro. A report last week that Germany?s finance minister and Bundesbank (central bank) president have discussed its demise was swiftly played down but that did not kill the idea of a break-up. Stern, the German magazine that reported the discussion, says the euro is making the Federal Republic?s economy ?kaputt?; no translation needed.

Stuart Thomson, an economist with Charles Stanley Sutherlands, the stockbroker, says in a paper that the French referendum was the beginning of the end for the euro. The collapse of monetary union is inevitable by 2020, he writes, as the European economy comes under increasing pressure, not least from its ageing population. But he also sees a 50% probability of a partial break-up by 2008, with one or more member states withdrawing, partly as a consequence of the currency- market backlash as China and Japan abandon their policy of supporting the dollar through large-scale purchases of US government bonds.

History is on his side. Every previous monetary union in Europe, such as the Latin Monetary Union of 1865-1927, ended in failure.

There is a difference between a ?no? vote on the constitution by EU citizens and a ?yes? to the collapse of monetary union. But the constitution votes by the French and Dutch show that support for the European project is thin and that people?s willingness to make economic sacrifices for what used to be seen as the greater good of EU integration is limited.

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,8211-1641196_2,00.html

It's interesting to read the British peoples opinions on the euro too:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/2976494.stm

No offense, but each different economist is probably going to give a different answer to whether the Euro will falter or not. Also, citing history (1865-1927) is kind of stupid. The situations today are nothing like back then. Hell, even that monetary union lasted 62 years. The Euro has only been around a few years so far.

I'm not saying the Euro will stand stable forever. There's always the possiblity that the idea will die off. But until then, it's really no use speculating.

 

[nergee]

Originally posted by: fornax
I sure hope that the dollar stays high or gets even higher. I'm going on a month-long vacation in Europe and I need the extra buying power

:thumbsup::beer:

 

[B00ne]

Originally posted by: BarneyFife
The Euro has ruined Europe. Inflation in countries such as Italy and Greece has caused hardship. We are talking about 200% increases in a lot of things. I hope the Euro goes down in flames because it was nothing more than the wealthy elites of Europe trying to compete with the US dollar.

WTF are you talking about? Inflation? If you call 1.7% high Inflation then you should look at Italies and Greeces former rubber currencies. The Germans (the ppl) never wanted the Euro because they were afraid of trading a real currency against something that is potentially a Lira or Drachme. Even if there were price increases like that it most likely has other reasons than the indlation of the Euro. Especially Italy and Greece werent exactly known for having stable currencies.
Sure there were extraordinary price increases especially directly after the introduction, but those were in areas where ppl tend to notice because they are paying cash - restaurants and going out in general. Those increases had little to do with real inflation but rather with pub owners trying to make an easy buck by using the ppls unfamiliarity with the new money. They got what they deserve - now they complain that revenue is falling cause ppl dont go out as much anymore. Talk about self inflicted ruin.

However in most other areas prices went down or increased only moderatly leading to a total inflation of about 1.7% a year.

Rest assured the Euro is gonna stay.

 

[sandorski]

Yup, the Euro Central Bank has been criticized for not allowing Inflation to rise, Europes Inflation is quite low, but the Bank hasn't eased up on it. One thing the Euro does is take power out of the individual Nations, which would like to have that power right now. At one time Germany, Italy, or whomever could easily adjust the value of their Currency in order to stimulate growth, that is no longer the case. I suspect the Central Bank will be pressured to allow the Euro to fall in order to alleviate these various pressures, which should help Europe as a whole quite a bit. The flipside to that is that the US dollar will rise putting pressue on the Federal Reserve to possibly devalue as well. Hopefully some kind of bizzare Devaluation War doesn't ensue.

 

[BarneyFife]

Originally posted by: B00ne

Originally posted by: BarneyFife
The Euro has ruined Europe. Inflation in countries such as Italy and Greece has caused hardship. We are talking about 200% increases in a lot of things. I hope the Euro goes down in flames because it was nothing more than the wealthy elites of Europe trying to compete with the US dollar.

WTF are you talking about? Inflation? If you call 1.7% high Inflation then you should look at Italies and Greeces former rubber currencies. The Germans (the ppl) never wanted the Euro because they were afraid of trading a real currency against something that is potentially a Lira or Drachme. Even if there were price increases like that it most likely has other reasons than the indlation of the Euro. Especially Italy and Greece werent exactly known for having stable currencies.
Sure there were extraordinary price increases especially directly after the introduction, but those were in areas where ppl tend to notice because they are paying cash - restaurants and going out in general. Those increases had little to do with real inflation but rather with pub owners trying to make an easy buck by using the ppls unfamiliarity with the new money. They got what they deserve - now they complain that revenue is falling cause ppl dont go out as much anymore. Talk about self inflicted ruin.

However in most other areas prices went down or increased only moderatly leading to a total inflation of about 1.7% a year.

Rest assured the Euro is gonna stay.

Most areas? I watch greek tv all the time and they complain everyday about things such as groceries, meat, clothes, and other merchandise going up dramatically (200%). It has been a disaster over there since the Euro.

 

[alent1234]

is that because of the Euro or internal greek policies?

 

[BarneyFife]

Originally posted by: alent1234
is that because of the Euro or internal greek policies?

These problems arose after the Euro. The problem occurs when you raise prices to the level of Germany and wages remain the same. Greece will never be France or Germany and the Euro nailed the smaller countries.

 

[Genx87]

Originally posted by: sandorski
They're not screwed, just wondering what's next after the French and Dutch Constitutional rejection. Don't gloat yet, US economic policy isn't working and in the coming weeks Dollar/Euro values will settle out as before.

Our GDP growth is about double the EU's.

It must be doing something right.

 

[Martin]

Originally posted by: digitalsm
Quite a lot of people were saying the sky is falling on the dollar....
The French are calling for the franc, the Italians the lira, Britain is not going to have a referendum on the Euro. German officials have even talked about the euros demise.

let me guess...you don't see the irony in your own post, do you?