So is there any doubt anymore what was driving crude oil 6 months ago?

[Capt Caveman]

Originally posted by: dmcowen674

Originally posted by: Capt Caveman
Dave, why do you post articles about OPEC lowering production will increase oil/gas prices, yet deny that demand/supply is part of the mixture in prices?

I post the bullshit that people like you, Skoorb, Charrison, CAD etc believe.

You and buds failings are etched in history forever :laugh:

And Dave, why have oil prices dropped to levels lower than prior to the speculation bubble? You honestly believe that the decrease in global demand for oil has no effect on the drop oil prices?

 

[miketheidiot]

Originally posted by: Skoorb
Down overall is partly from stronger dollar, partly weakened demand, mainly hysterical speculation's chickens coming home to roost. I wonder if Goldman Sachs has Sached some of their more idiotic analysts who didn't see any of this when even many laymen did.

actually, i think goldman got ahead of the curve and shorted the whole way down.

 

[StageLeft]

Originally posted by: miketheidiot

Originally posted by: Skoorb
Down overall is partly from stronger dollar, partly weakened demand, mainly hysterical speculation's chickens coming home to roost. I wonder if Goldman Sachs has Sached some of their more idiotic analysts who didn't see any of this when even many laymen did.

actually, i think goldman got ahead of the curve and shorted the whole way down.

Pump & Dump? If so, I am jealous.

 

[dmcowen674]

Originally posted by: Capt Caveman

Originally posted by: dmcowen674

Originally posted by: Capt Caveman
Dave, why do you post articles about OPEC lowering production will increase oil/gas prices, yet deny that demand/supply is part of the mixture in prices?

I post the bullshit that people like you, Skoorb, Charrison, CAD etc believe.

You and buds failings are etched in history forever :laugh:

And Dave, why have oil prices dropped to levels lower than prior to the speculation bubble?

You honestly believe that the decrease in global demand for oil has no effect on the drop oil prices?

Speaking of Supply & Demand fools :laugh:

 

[dmcowen674]

Originally posted by: Skoorb

Originally posted by: dmcowen674

Originally posted by: Capt Caveman
Dave, why do you post articles about OPEC lowering production will increase oil/gas prices, yet deny that demand/supply is part of the mixture in prices?

I post the bullshit that people like you, Skoorb, Charrison, CAD etc believe.

You and buds failings are etched in history forever :laugh:

Oh the irony, this from the constant nomad who cannot hold down a job or relationship to save his life and posts in the stock thread as if it matters to a guy who's retirement account is at $0. For shame, Dave

You should be proud.

I am exactly as the elites want.

 

[dphantom]

Originally posted by: Skoorb

Originally posted by: miketheidiot

Originally posted by: Skoorb
Down overall is partly from stronger dollar, partly weakened demand, mainly hysterical speculation's chickens coming home to roost. I wonder if Goldman Sachs has Sached some of their more idiotic analysts who didn't see any of this when even many laymen did.

actually, i think goldman got ahead of the curve and shorted the whole way down.

Pump & Dump? If so, I am jealous.

I suspect there is an overcorrection on the downside and we'll see an uptick back to $50-$70 assuming the world economies stabilize, ie mild recession/low-no growth. If the economic freefall continues, then oil prices should fall to the $25 - $30 range.

Once things pick back up, oil should rebound to $60-$90.

 

[StageLeft]

Originally posted by: dmcowen674

Originally posted by: Skoorb

Originally posted by: dmcowen674

Originally posted by: Capt Caveman
Dave, why do you post articles about OPEC lowering production will increase oil/gas prices, yet deny that demand/supply is part of the mixture in prices?

I post the bullshit that people like you, Skoorb, Charrison, CAD etc believe.

You and buds failings are etched in history forever :laugh:

Oh the irony, this from the constant nomad who cannot hold down a job or relationship to save his life and posts in the stock thread as if it matters to a guy who's retirement account is at $0. For shame, Dave

You should be proud.

I am exactly as the elites want.

Like I've said, you don't have to be; you can do better. What you're doing is not working but you still have a few decades to live a better life.

 

[Capt Caveman]

Originally posted by: dmcowen674

Originally posted by: Capt Caveman

Originally posted by: dmcowen674

Originally posted by: Capt Caveman
Dave, why do you post articles about OPEC lowering production will increase oil/gas prices, yet deny that demand/supply is part of the mixture in prices?

I post the bullshit that people like you, Skoorb, Charrison, CAD etc believe.

You and buds failings are etched in history forever :laugh:

And Dave, why have oil prices dropped to levels lower than prior to the speculation bubble?

You honestly believe that the decrease in global demand for oil has no effect on the drop oil prices?

Speaking of Supply & Demand fools :laugh:

No, only a fool like yourself would believe that oil prices are based on 110% speculation. I guess that elementary school education isn't working out too well for you.

Again, please explain why oil/gas prices have dropped lower than pre-speculation bubble levels?

 

[Lonyo]

Originally posted by: Capt Caveman

Originally posted by: dmcowen674

Originally posted by: Capt Caveman

Originally posted by: dmcowen674

Originally posted by: Capt Caveman
Dave, why do you post articles about OPEC lowering production will increase oil/gas prices, yet deny that demand/supply is part of the mixture in prices?

I post the bullshit that people like you, Skoorb, Charrison, CAD etc believe.

You and buds failings are etched in history forever :laugh:

And Dave, why have oil prices dropped to levels lower than prior to the speculation bubble?

You honestly believe that the decrease in global demand for oil has no effect on the drop oil prices?

Speaking of Supply & Demand fools :laugh:

No, only a fool like yourself would believe that oil prices are based on 110% speculation. I guess that elementary school education isn't working out too well for you.

Again, please explain why oil/gas prices have dropped lower than pre-speculation bubble levels?

It was always a mixture, but the main driving force that pushed it as high as it went was speculation which could really only happen due to supply and demand (people knew there was increasing demand and not enough of a supply increase), so they could pump up prices by speculating. Then speculators stopped because they realised the econ was going to hell, and demand also dropped because of the worsening economy, and now (arguably) it's all about supply and demand which is why prices are lower than pre-speculation (because demand isn't looking like it will go up due to the economy).

Blaming one or the other in isolation is stupid, they have both had their parts to play, and now one (speculation) has pretty much gone away for now and it's pretty much supply/demand leading to current price fluctuations.
And it's push/pull as people worry about the economy, driving down prices, and people like OPEC or member states try and stop the price falling so they can balance budgets (Iran/Venezuela etc) and people try and work out where it's all going.

 

[StageLeft]

Originally posted by: Lonyo

Originally posted by: Capt Caveman

Originally posted by: dmcowen674

Originally posted by: Capt Caveman

Originally posted by: dmcowen674

Originally posted by: Capt Caveman
Dave, why do you post articles about OPEC lowering production will increase oil/gas prices, yet deny that demand/supply is part of the mixture in prices?

I post the bullshit that people like you, Skoorb, Charrison, CAD etc believe.

You and buds failings are etched in history forever :laugh:

And Dave, why have oil prices dropped to levels lower than prior to the speculation bubble?

You honestly believe that the decrease in global demand for oil has no effect on the drop oil prices?

Speaking of Supply & Demand fools :laugh:

No, only a fool like yourself would believe that oil prices are based on 110% speculation. I guess that elementary school education isn't working out too well for you.

Again, please explain why oil/gas prices have dropped lower than pre-speculation bubble levels?

It was always a mixture, but the main driving force that pushed it as high as it went was speculation which could really only happen due to supply and demand (people knew there was increasing demand and not enough of a supply increase), so they could pump up prices by speculating. Then speculators stopped because they realised the econ was going to hell, and demand also dropped because of the worsening economy, and now (arguably) it's all about supply and demand which is why prices are lower than pre-speculation (because demand isn't looking like it will go up due to the economy).

Blaming one or the other in isolation is stupid, they have both had their parts to play, and now one (speculation) has pretty much gone away for now and it's pretty much supply/demand leading to current price fluctuations.
And it's push/pull as people worry about the economy, driving down prices, and people like OPEC or member states try and stop the price falling so they can balance budgets (Iran/Venezuela etc) and people try and work out where it's all going.

Every person here feels it's a mixture of fundamental supply/demand + speculation, though to varying degrees. The one exception to this is dave who thinks it's all speculation.

 

[brencat]

The hedge funds pumped up commodities touting their own artificial demand/supply imbalance which they were contributing to to offset losses in credit and mortgage derivatives, but the speculative fever was cut short by accelerating redemption outflows amidst an economy weakening at an alarming rate.

Legendkiller & Poker Guy have it right

 

[blackangst1]

This thread is going places now!

 

[JS80]

Originally posted by: dphantom

Originally posted by: Skoorb

Originally posted by: miketheidiot

Originally posted by: Skoorb
Down overall is partly from stronger dollar, partly weakened demand, mainly hysterical speculation's chickens coming home to roost. I wonder if Goldman Sachs has Sached some of their more idiotic analysts who didn't see any of this when even many laymen did.

actually, i think goldman got ahead of the curve and shorted the whole way down.

Pump & Dump? If so, I am jealous.

I suspect there is an overcorrection on the downside and we'll see an uptick back to $50-$70 assuming the world economies stabilize, ie mild recession/low-no growth. If the economic freefall continues, then oil prices should fall to the $25 - $30 range.

Once things pick back up, oil should rebound to $60-$90.

What are your qualifications?

 

[dphantom]

Originally posted by: JS80

Originally posted by: dphantom

Originally posted by: Skoorb

Originally posted by: miketheidiot

Originally posted by: Skoorb
Down overall is partly from stronger dollar, partly weakened demand, mainly hysterical speculation's chickens coming home to roost. I wonder if Goldman Sachs has Sached some of their more idiotic analysts who didn't see any of this when even many laymen did.

actually, i think goldman got ahead of the curve and shorted the whole way down.

Pump & Dump? If so, I am jealous.

I suspect there is an overcorrection on the downside and we'll see an uptick back to $50-$70 assuming the world economies stabilize, ie mild recession/low-no growth. If the economic freefall continues, then oil prices should fall to the $25 - $30 range.

Once things pick back up, oil should rebound to $60-$90.

What are your qualifications?

internet access what R yours

 

[StageLeft]

Originally posted by: dphantom

Originally posted by: JS80

Originally posted by: dphantom

Originally posted by: Skoorb

Originally posted by: miketheidiot

Originally posted by: Skoorb
Down overall is partly from stronger dollar, partly weakened demand, mainly hysterical speculation's chickens coming home to roost. I wonder if Goldman Sachs has Sached some of their more idiotic analysts who didn't see any of this when even many laymen did.

actually, i think goldman got ahead of the curve and shorted the whole way down.

Pump & Dump? If so, I am jealous.

I suspect there is an overcorrection on the downside and we'll see an uptick back to $50-$70 assuming the world economies stabilize, ie mild recession/low-no growth. If the economic freefall continues, then oil prices should fall to the $25 - $30 range.

Once things pick back up, oil should rebound to $60-$90.

What are your qualifications?

internet access what R yours

Mine, too! I think what you wrote sounds reasonable. I don't know if the downside has been overcorrected, but the natural inclination after a bubble is to overcorrect, making up for itself to a degree. $25-30 seems a best-case scenario floor, as unprofitable production will increasingly be taken offline, so unless demand completely plummets below even what the very cheap producers can come up with, it is not likely to drop down below that, or in fact even that far for long.

 

[GoPackGo]

Originally posted by: dmcowen674

Originally posted by: halik
Topic Title: So is there any doubt anymore what was driving crude oil 6 months ago?

Obviously Supply and Demand as the resident oil apologists keep saying for years and still saying.

Dave, supply and demand is supposed to dictate price.

 

[dphantom]

Originally posted by: Skoorb

Originally posted by: dphantom

Originally posted by: JS80

Originally posted by: dphantom

Originally posted by: Skoorb

Originally posted by: miketheidiot

Originally posted by: Skoorb
Down overall is partly from stronger dollar, partly weakened demand, mainly hysterical speculation's chickens coming home to roost. I wonder if Goldman Sachs has Sached some of their more idiotic analysts who didn't see any of this when even many laymen did.

actually, i think goldman got ahead of the curve and shorted the whole way down.

Pump & Dump? If so, I am jealous.

I suspect there is an overcorrection on the downside and we'll see an uptick back to $50-$70 assuming the world economies stabilize, ie mild recession/low-no growth. If the economic freefall continues, then oil prices should fall to the $25 - $30 range.

Once things pick back up, oil should rebound to $60-$90.

What are your qualifications?

internet access what R yours

Mine, too! I think what you wrote sounds reasonable. I don't know if the downside has been overcorrected, but the natural inclination after a bubble is to overcorrect, making up for itself to a degree. $25-30 seems a best-case scenario floor, as unprofitable production will increasingly be taken offline, so unless demand completely plummets below even what the very cheap producers can come up with, it is not likely to drop down below that, or in fact even that far for long.

Yes, it is what I think is a reasonable guess based on personal observations of economic activity over the last 35 years. If I am wrong, no problem.

At any rate, I am with your analysis on this.

 

[JS80]

Originally posted by: dphantom

Originally posted by: JS80

Originally posted by: dphantom

Originally posted by: Skoorb

Originally posted by: miketheidiot

Originally posted by: Skoorb
Down overall is partly from stronger dollar, partly weakened demand, mainly hysterical speculation's chickens coming home to roost. I wonder if Goldman Sachs has Sached some of their more idiotic analysts who didn't see any of this when even many laymen did.

actually, i think goldman got ahead of the curve and shorted the whole way down.

Pump & Dump? If so, I am jealous.

I suspect there is an overcorrection on the downside and we'll see an uptick back to $50-$70 assuming the world economies stabilize, ie mild recession/low-no growth. If the economic freefall continues, then oil prices should fall to the $25 - $30 range.

Once things pick back up, oil should rebound to $60-$90.

What are your qualifications?

internet access what R yours

I'm not putting you down. I'm just trying to gauge if you're $60-90 prediction is an arbitrary number you pulled out of your asshole or if you are somewhat qualified to make futures predictions in commodity pricing.

 

[blackangst1]

Originally posted by: GoPackGo

Originally posted by: dmcowen674

Originally posted by: halik
Topic Title: So is there any doubt anymore what was driving crude oil 6 months ago?

Obviously Supply and Demand as the resident oil apologists keep saying for years and still saying.

Dave, supply and demand is supposed to dictate price.

Aaawww come'on now. Capitalism has no place here!

 

[halik]

Originally posted by: brencat
The hedge funds pumped up commodities touting their own artificial demand/supply imbalance which they were contributing to to offset losses in credit and mortgage derivatives, but the speculative fever was cut short by accelerating redemption outflows amidst an economy weakening at an alarming rate.

Legendkiller & Poker Guy have it right

It was a demonstration of what Soros calls 'reflexivity' - whole bunch of funds got the view that there will be increasing demand for oil and limited increase in supply, so they all bet long on crude oil. As billions of dollars (multiple leveraged) went long on crude contracts, this pushed up the price of crude and the whole thing became self-fulfilling prophecy. As oil climbed, the view that demand will increase was fulfilled by the apparent increase in oil price.

Also keep in mind there is a natural price floor for crude oil - tar sands need $60/barrel to be profitable, oil rigs cost around ~$20 bucks a barrel etc.

 

[alien42]

almost time to start buying DXO

 

[halik]

Originally posted by: alien42
almost time to start buying DXO

Should've bought on friday, up 20% today (I'm still in red though, the last week's drop caught me off hand)

 

[OokiiNeko]

If the speculators drove up the price, the speculators should have reaped all the profit.

Oil companies` profits say otherwise.

It was pure naked greed. As predicted by someone.

 

[OokiiNeko]

Like who? Find proof, with an actual link, of more than one person on P&N who said that the run-up was entirely supply & demand.

Anyone who mentioned "China" in the Oil and Gas thread says you`re full of crap.

 

[dmcowen674]

Originally posted by: OokiiNeko

Like who? Find proof, with an actual link, of more than one person on P&N who said that the run-up was entirely supply & demand.

Anyone who mentioned "China" in the Oil and Gas thread says you`re full of crap.

:lips: :heart: