Originally posted by: LegendKiller
Originally posted by: spacejamz
Originally posted by: LegendKiller
Originally posted by: spacejamz
Originally posted by: waggy
Originally posted by: BriGy86
I think a lot of this can be avoided if you simply stay away from ARM loans. at least that's what my dad told me never to get.
yeap. i would NEVER get a ARM loan. just seems a bad idea.
the idea behind an ARM loan was for people with not so good credit to get a 'temporary' loan (one to three years) where they could rebuild their credit score. Once the ARM period was over, the mortgagor should have been able to qualify for a fixed rate mortgage.
However, most of these people did not change their habits and continued spending and paying their bills late, not giving a rat's ass that adjustable rate would kick in. Once the ARM rate was over (which is happening now), these people were scrambling to pay the new higher rate because they cannot qualify for a traditional fixed rate mortgage. their only choice is to walk away from the property.
The mess we are in right now was not very difficult to foresee. There was a push a few years back to extend more credit to people with bad credit and minorities (I am not implying that these groups are mutually exclusive, but the articles I read specifically targeted them in their marketing campaigns) to allow them to become homeowners...this was an untapped market that had the potential to provide higher revenues because they could charge these groups higher interest rates, higher fees (late charges, pre-payment penalties, etc) than people with good credit.
There was no chance in hell of these people being able to down 10 to 20% and get a fixed rate loan. They typically had very poor credit habits and getting an ARM loan was an invitation to delay the inevitable (in the mean time, mortgage brokers were making commissions out the ass closing thousands of loans which they pretty much knew that most of these new homeowners would probably be defaulting when the ARM kicked in)...
fast forward to today to see the shit hit the fan...and it will probably get a whole lot worse before it gets better....
As somebody else mention, this is completely incorrect. ARM loans were not for lower scored people.
Also, it wasn't completely to bet against the bank. It's matching your assets and liability timing primarily and also seeing where rates would go.
i work for a company that provides mortgage servicing software to major lending institutions...several of our customers have substantial subprime portfolios that have a large percentage of ARM loans...
Found this article has raises some of the points I raised in my post.
the article states that 2 Million sub prime ARM loans would reset last October and you don't ARM loans are for people with bad credit???
...and I work at the 10th largest bank in the world doing securitization issuance as a VP (I still have a job). I also spend most of my day, if not working on a deal, strategizing and determing where the market is going. We have been pitched billions in RMBS financing, from straight up term deals to CDO warehousing for CDO^2 and other transactions. I also read a few dozen securitization rags every week (asset securitization report, asset backed alert, among others) and closely follow the status fo the RMBS/CMBS market, the rating agency perceptions, insurance companies (MBIA/AMBAC/FGIC...etc) movements, and also general trends in consumer credit.
I read the reports coming out of Credit Suisse constantly, as well as other research pertaining to the composition of securitization pools. I continually monitor the ABX index from MarkIt, the S&P Case-Shiller Index (which I discussed way before it hit the MSM), as well as several other indexes.
You make the mistake of thinking that all ARMS are subprime, not some ARMS are subprime, as I clearly outlined above. Your statement that it's a temporary loan to rebuild credit scores is flat-out incorrect. It was never intended to fix anything and historically has been offered to a broad range of clientele.
Sure, it was pitched to lower credit obligors as an affordability product, stretching them into houses they couldn't otherwise afford, but it was *never* a credit fixer. This isn't secured credit card land here. Furthermore, I know plenty of people with 800+ FICOs that have ARM loans.
The loans which garner the most attention, Option Arms, were never intended for lower credit and, the vast majority of those offered still, are not to lower credit people.
Keep in mind that sub-prime was only ~20% of all mortgages in 2006, anywhere between 60-75% were ARMS.
23.4% of 2004-2006 prime originations were some type of ARM. That means that ~20% of the ARMs are prime arms. This shift only occured in the last 5 or so years, when speculators were desperate to fit into as big of a house as possible.
I have always stated that subprime arms will cause problems. However, to say that ARMs are for subprime people, is wholly incorrect. Additionally, to say that it was intended as a credit fixer, is incorrect. This whole mess has twisted the original intent of many mortgage product into subprime.
When it comes down to it, ARMs were intended for one specific purpose, to match timing of assets to liabilities. If your asset (house) was timed for 5 years, then you match funded your liability (mortgage) to the same period. Why would you ever pay for a 5-year asset with a 30-year liability when you have to pay more for the 30-year liability. Using efficient funding, then you match fund. There are several levels of rationale for investors to charge more for longer-termed funding, including preferred habitat, forward-curve, time-premium...etc.
Do not spread FUD about ARMs, most ignorant reporters are doing a good job of it already, they don't need help.