LegendKiller
Lifer
- Mar 5, 2001
- 18,256
- 68
- 86
Originally posted by: HombrePequeno
Originally posted by: LegendKiller
Originally posted by: Rapier
Originally posted by: LegendKiller
Originally posted by: Rapier
Originally posted by: Aisengard
So you'd rather have today's proven terrible Republican party rather than a party who the last time they could affect change was in 2002. Makes sense...
So all change is good, huh. How terrible are things?
1. The stock market is dancing around an all time high,
2. Economy is good,
3. Unemployment is low, etc.
I'm old enough to remember 1980 when Jimmy Carter was leaving office...
1. Stock market doesn't mean squat. All that is happening is irrational exuberance and asset flight from housing to the stock market, driving prices up. P/E ratios are rediculously high and do not reflect fundamentals.
2. The economy is not good. Last time I checked, even the most optimistic numbers erased 30%+ from GDP in the next year as housing continues to slide. This of course, was only housing, but not including the debt spending and equity cash-out the average American has been utilizing to pay for plasmas and new cars. According to most expert estimates, GDP would be in negative territory had this equity cash-out not taken place.
As housing continues to tank, many who utilized equity that was a ghost, paper tiger, or a mirage, will be flipped on mortgages as they become more house-poor, further contracting the economy.
3. Low unemployment isn't spectacular. All it means is that more money is chasing fewer people, resulting in above-normal wages, which causes inflation. Furthermore, as housing and the ancillary markets are affected, this number should go down quite a bit.
The economy of today is no more real than 2000. Both ignored fundamentals, both were based upon irrational exuberance, both ignored potential down-times. What makes this one even worse is that it is not based upon asset sales and realized gains, but based upon leverage, unrealized gains, and mortgages that can reprice.
The last time a broker gave somebody a 1% 300,000 loan with 10% collateral was in 1929. Look what happened there. Now that's what has happened as we have allowed lenders to shrug off oversight.
All of this could have been prevented by moderate talk from the President. However, moderation doesn't win elections or keep your poll numbers up, it makes people wary, something a sitting President doesn't want. Furthermore, "monkey see monkey do" is a perfect analogy, people see him spending like there is no tommorrow so they do the same.
I am voting straight democrat. 6 years ago, when I voted for Bush I would *NEVER* have thought I would do this. Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice shame on me
(not even the baboon got that one right)
Classic Democrat Response, thanks!! Negitivity and Fear-Mongering ..Doom and Gloom. I'm really surprised you admitted that you voted for bush in 2000 (or was that just a ploy to give your statement some semblance of credibilty?)
I can't say I was around in '29, but most economic experts would agree that the global financial network is far too interwoven these days for depression like in 1929 to ever occur again.
I remember you dems shouting depression-is-a-coming over the huge credit card balances people were carrying in the '80' & 90's. Or course that never happened either. Doom and Gloom ..the sky is falling.
What, no comment on Carter? Lets talk about a dems poster boy here. Everybody wants change ..change is always good, huh. Wiki 1979 - 80 and read about the: economy, double digit inflation, interest rates in the upper teens, housing market hitting bottom and a president that was too wussy to deal with the hositage fiasco in Iran.
3. 1929 can happen again and it has nothing to do with the interconnectedness of the global economy. 1989 it got pretty dang close and was only stopped by the speed bumps in the trading systems and increased margin requirements. Irrational exuberance seen in 1929 and prior (tulip bulbs) is still abound. Just take a look at the housing thread I post in.
4. America owes 700 BILLION dollars in credit cards. Even adjusted for inflation, that number is 3x higher than *ANY* number in history. Most of that is funded by secondary marketed bonds (securitization) sold to investors, many of whom are international. Added to that, we owe *MUCH* more in secured debt than any time in history.
Compound that with the fact that most of that borrowing was secured by inflated housing which is now crashing.
My comparison to '29 was to highlight that back then, people would borrow on margin a few hundred dollars to buy stocks, which almost collapsed the country. Now, we are handing people 300,000 with low credit, low rates, and either 10% or 0% down and letting them gamble that they can pay *AND* the house will appreciate.
You might want to read up on the actual causes of the Great Depression. You seem to think it was a failure of the market. While it's true all of the speculation of the stock market wasn't exactly great, that by itself could never have caused the Depression. Actually looking at the rate the stock market rose, it doesn't look too different from the rates it rose in the '80s and '90s.
The problem was the Fed not lowering rates fast enough. When the economy started to recover the Fed raised rates by 1% (a huge jump) due to an outflow of gold to France which was building up gold reserves.
I never said the whole cause of the depression was the stock market, please don't put words in my mouth. The 29 crash was a symptom of a wider problem, which was rooted in the stupidity of the capital markets, the inability of the Fed to regulate rates, and the ignorance regarding monetary controls. However, the '29 crash was a catalyst that highlighted the weaknesses in all of this areas.
The raising of rates wasn't the primary reason. If one were to look at the fundamentals of the capital markets compared to the relative returns and levels, you would see that it was so grossly inflated as to be a bloated pig.
As soon as the market popped, confidence was lost and people tried to pull money out. Since bad loans were written to people who couldn't pay after it popped, the banks had no assets with which to pay back depositors, creating an even bigger run on the banks. As the reserves dried up, banks went under. Billions in assets were "lost" to bad loans given to people on margin for stock market investments that were over-inflated.
Due to an uncapped and unregulated market, rampant speculation, and irrational exuberance, the economy overheated and people overextended. Regression to the mean occurred, as it will in the next few years.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_depression
