Engineer
Elite Member
- Oct 9, 1999
- 39,230
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Lemon law
Lifer
- Nov 6, 2005
- 20,984
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Quite a while ago I said that early polls in July and August meant little, but when we get to the last two weeks, they become far better predictors. If anything, the demographics polling data is missing is likely to be
Obama voters. So yes, it looks very grim for the McCain Palin ticket.
But an external event similar to the recent economic meltdown could change the ball game, and GWB&co does have an ability to engineer such an event. But otherwise, the odds are that any new external event is likely to benefit Obama more than McCain.
Both sides have come too far to give up now, so it will be due diligence on both sides, and no time for any democratic overconfidence. But now is the time for the Obama Sunday punch, the Obama camp is going to bury McCain in campaign ads and use its money advantage. Which should pad the Obama lead and allow any responses to any new GOP swiftboating.
Obama voters. So yes, it looks very grim for the McCain Palin ticket.
But an external event similar to the recent economic meltdown could change the ball game, and GWB&co does have an ability to engineer such an event. But otherwise, the odds are that any new external event is likely to benefit Obama more than McCain.
Both sides have come too far to give up now, so it will be due diligence on both sides, and no time for any democratic overconfidence. But now is the time for the Obama Sunday punch, the Obama camp is going to bury McCain in campaign ads and use its money advantage. Which should pad the Obama lead and allow any responses to any new GOP swiftboating.
MidasKnight
Diamond Member
- Apr 24, 2004
- 3,288
- 0
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AP presidential poll: Race tightens in final weeks
Says it was posted 20 min ago but is this old info ?
Says it was posted 20 min ago but is this old info ?
I've been hearing about the race tightening up but I can't really think of any reasons why exactly. I mean.. that would indicate intelligence but I refuse to believe that is the cause.
Maybe people are just gettin cold feet on Obama.
Engineer
Elite Member
- Oct 9, 1999
- 39,230
- 701
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I think McCain could win if it turns out the polling data doesn't accurately reflect the opinions of the voters. During the Democratic Primaries it was said that Obama tended to get higher polling numbers than his actual voting numbers. It'll be interesting to see what happens on the night of the 4th.
It's just the polls settling back down to normal after McCain's implosion on the financial crisis. Obama was up by 2 or 3, then the crisis hit and Obama was going northward of 10 points up on McCain. No presidential race is likely to have that, and so reality has taken back over. Obama will probably once again settle into the 5 or so point lead he's had for most of the race.
jonks
Lifer
- Feb 7, 2005
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Vic
Elite Member
- Jun 12, 2001
- 50,422
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The results ALWAYS tighten up in the last couple weeks of a Presidential election. Always. That's because there are fewer undecideds as the election draws closer.
Another thing to keep in mind that any single poll by itself is worthless. You have to take the aggregate and follow the trends.
Another thing to keep in mind that any single poll by itself is worthless. You have to take the aggregate and follow the trends.
The only way mccain wins is if the polls say this:
1) ~48% say obama. I would assume that is a dead set number.
2) ~40% say mccain. I would assume that is a dead set number.
3) so that leaves 12% as "undecided." now if 11% are really going to vote mccain, but are too pissed at the republican party to say so to pollsters, then he has a chance to win.
Does anyone know historically what the polls came down to in the last 3 elections? I've always thought it was 49/49 to the end and then 1/1 split for approx 50/50. My theory is that it's really 49/49 but republican voters are just so angry at their party that they are saying "undecided" to pollsters.
either that or the 12% are independents, which would probably give obama half those votes, which would be Obama 54/46.
1) ~48% say obama. I would assume that is a dead set number.
2) ~40% say mccain. I would assume that is a dead set number.
3) so that leaves 12% as "undecided." now if 11% are really going to vote mccain, but are too pissed at the republican party to say so to pollsters, then he has a chance to win.
Does anyone know historically what the polls came down to in the last 3 elections? I've always thought it was 49/49 to the end and then 1/1 split for approx 50/50. My theory is that it's really 49/49 but republican voters are just so angry at their party that they are saying "undecided" to pollsters.
either that or the 12% are independents, which would probably give obama half those votes, which would be Obama 54/46.
Probably means very low 40's numbers you see are probably too low, even for Palin McLame '08.
Some of their base probably abandoned ship during the peak of stock market crash, but are likely to return to the base on November 4th.
Still, net net, a small part of his base has probably now decided either to stay home or even vote for Obama, and he has emerged stronger than ever because a lot of people are now comfortable with him (debate #1).
So, I would say tightening back towards pre-stock market crash dynamics, but much more so in national averages rather than what still looks to be a very lop-sided Obama victory in electoral college (Missouri and North Carolina weren't really seriously in play before, and Florida was still kind of a long shot for Obama then).
AstroManLuca
Lifer
- Jun 24, 2004
- 15,628
- 5
- 81
Well, RCP's average of 14 national polls in the last week before the 2004 election said 48.9% Bush, 47.4% Kerry, and 0.9% Nader (+1.5% for Bush). Popular vote ended up being 50.7% to 48.3% (+2.5% for Bush).
Pretty close.
Pretty close.
SP33Demon
Lifer
- Jun 22, 2001
- 27,928
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Skunkwourk
Diamond Member
- Dec 9, 2004
- 4,662
- 1
- 81
You know I hoped and dreamed that Bush wouldn't win again in 2004, but in my heart I always had a pretty good feeling that he would. Whenever I tried to think happy thoughts about Kerry winning they never felt genuine, like I was fighting my own better sense.
This election I honestly feel pretty good about, I think Obama's probably got it.
Nope it will be Obama in a landslide. I am just hoping the republicans can keep 42 seats or more in the senate. That way they can filibuster all the crazy crap Pelosi/Reid/Obama want to do.
retrospooty
Platinum Member
- Apr 3, 2002
- 2,031
- 74
- 86
Exactly.... The ONLY one to watch is RCP... They use all of the major polls and update them daily.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/polls/
Obama +7 points and climbing.
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