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So can the Democrats keep the Senate?

R

RalphTheCow

Golden Member
I can’t get my hopes too high but we just might be able to lose Ted Cruz! I see that one is close. But WV is gone, and Ohio seems uphill. Haven’t checked on PA but that one might be tough.
 
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I don't think Cruz will be at all close with Texas voters seeing their favorite Orange Rapist Felon on the same ballot.

MD worries me more and more, each week, but it's the opposite effect that Kamala will run away here with probably one of the highest margins by state, so hopefully the helps Alsobrooks eek it out. Hogan is insanely popular, including among black voters in the state. No one outside of PG County even knows who Alsobrooks is, up until probably 6 months ago.
 
RalphTheCow said:
I can’t get my hopes too high but we just might be able to lose Ted Cruz! I see that one is close. But WV is gone, and Ohio seems uphill. Haven’t checked on PA but that one might be tough.
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I live in PA. Bob Casey - D has a decent lead over Dave McCormack - R

McCormack favors abortion ban no exceptions
 
zinfamous said:
I don't think Cruz will be at all close with Texas voters seeing their favorite Orange Rapist Felon on the same ballot.

MD worries me more and more, each week, but it's the opposite effect that Kamala will run away here with probably one of the highest margins by state, so hopefully the helps Alsobrooks eek it out. Hogan is insanely popular, including among black voters in the state. No one outside of PG County even knows who Alsobrooks is, up until probably 6 months ago.
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I see nonstop Hogan ads, and I think I've maybe seen one Alsobrooks ad. I have no idea what the fuck her campaign is doing.
 
zinfamous said:
I don't think Cruz will be at all close with Texas voters seeing their favorite Orange Rapist Felon on the same ballot.

MD worries me more and more, each week, but it's the opposite effect that Kamala will run away here with probably one of the highest margins by state, so hopefully the helps Alsobrooks eek it out. Hogan is insanely popular, including among black voters in the state. No one outside of PG County even knows who Alsobrooks is, up until probably 6 months ago.
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Hogan is certainly the strongest candidate the GOP could have run but polling indicates he’s going to lose.

I also don’t think it will end up mattering much as races don’t exist in isolation. If you just look at the MD race it’s possible Hogan could win, if not particularly likely. If Hogan wins or not primarily matters is Harris is president because if Trump wins Hogan is the least of our problems. If you look at the MD race, conditional on the idea that Harris has won the presidency, Hogan is overwhelmingly likely to lose.
 
HomerJS said:
I live in PA. Bob Casey - D has a decent lead over Dave McCormack - R

McCormack favors abortion ban no exceptions
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Since when has being an asshole fucked Republicans over?

Never.

Other than covid in which case their own base started dying faster than dems.
 
fskimospy said:
Hogan is certainly the strongest candidate the GOP could have run but polling indicates he’s going to lose.

I also don’t think it will end up mattering much as races don’t exist in isolation. If you just look at the MD race it’s possible Hogan could win, if not particularly likely. If Hogan wins or not primarily matters is Harris is president because if Trump wins Hogan is the least of our problems. If you look at the MD race, conditional on the idea that Harris has won the presidency, Hogan is overwhelmingly likely to lose.
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I dunno, I'm getting really bad vibes about this race. I know I know, vibes and all, but still. Hogan is an enigma in this state and Alsobrooks is nowhere to be found. It honestly seems like she's trying to lose. Or maybe they've just written off the entire Eastern Shore and that's why I don't see any Alsobrooks ads.
 
JD50 said:
I dunno, I'm getting really bad vibes about this race. I know I know, vibes and all, but still. Hogan is an enigma in this state and Alsobrooks is nowhere to be found. It honestly seems like she's trying to lose. Or maybe they've just written off the entire Eastern Shore and that's why I don't see any Alsobrooks ads.
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Seems like if you win the DMV you win the state...
 
JD50 said:
I dunno, I'm getting really bad vibes about this race. I know I know, vibes and all, but still. Hogan is an enigma in this state and Alsobrooks is nowhere to be found. It honestly seems like she's trying to lose.
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I don't know - what I can say is that generally speaking Alsobrooks is up in the polls (+5 in the most recent survey released today). As I said though, this is primarily of concern if Harris wins because if Trump wins that nearly certainly means Republicans control the Senate with or without Hogan. If she wins though, as races are correlated, that means Alsobrooks is highly likely to win.

The idea behind that is that if Harris wins that most likely means the polls were either right, or underestimated Democratic performance. Neither of those is compatible with a Hogan victory, at least as the race stands now.
JD50 said:
Or maybe they've just written off the entire Eastern Shore and that's why I don't see any Alsobrooks ads.
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As someone who grew up with a lot of family on the Eastern Shore in the Federalsburg area I can see how someone might think that, haha. I still remember my great uncle there being the sweetest guy ever who would also occasionally opine to a ten year old about the fact that communists had infiltrated every level of the US government.
 
eelw said:
Don't know, if the orange monkey were to somehow win, I see a split ticket going down ballot.
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If Trump wins I think it is highly likely that Republicans pick up at least one Senate seat that's not in Maryland. If that's the case then Hogan's election doesn't matter much.
 
fskimospy said:
If Trump wins I think it is highly likely that Republicans pick up at least one Senate seat that's not in Maryland. If that's the case then Hogan's election doesn't matter much.
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Fortunately the Rs have yet another crop of shitty Senate candidates because their primary voters are insane. Really been nice to watch them blow winnable race after winnable race the past couple cycles.
 
JD50 said:
I dunno, I'm getting really bad vibes about this race. I know I know, vibes and all, but still. Hogan is an enigma in this state and Alsobrooks is nowhere to be found. It honestly seems like she's trying to lose. Or maybe they've just written off the entire Eastern Shore and that's why I don't see any Alsobrooks ads.
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How's he an enigma? Popular former governor and although the odds are against him, he probably still has a 20% chance.

Seems like a 50/50 Senate is about the best Dems can hope for:

www.270towin.com

Consensus 2024 Senate Forecast - 270toWin

Consensus expert ratings for the 34 Senate elections to be contested in 2024
www.270towin.com www.270towin.com

www.realclearpolling.com

Battle for the Senate 2024 | RealClearPolling

Battle for the Senate 2024 | RealClearPolling
www.realclearpolling.com www.realclearpolling.com
 
manly said:
How's he an enigma? Popular former governor and although the odds are against him, he probably still has a 20% chance.

Seems like a 50/50 Senate is about the best Dems can hope for:

www.270towin.com

Consensus 2024 Senate Forecast - 270toWin

Consensus expert ratings for the 34 Senate elections to be contested in 2024
www.270towin.com www.270towin.com

www.realclearpolling.com

Battle for the Senate 2024 | RealClearPolling

Battle for the Senate 2024 | RealClearPolling
www.realclearpolling.com www.realclearpolling.com
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Anything is possible but it overall the odds are at a 50/50 Senate. But there will be no manchin or synema in that 50
 
Fanatical Meat said:
And this is fine because those two are dead weight and simply would derail everything which has the same effect as an R controlled Senate.
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Nonsense. Manchin is a DINO, but he helped enact Joe Biden's agenda through 2022.

Not to say Manchin could hold his seat if he was running again, but if the GQP ends up with 50-51 seats, we'll miss having Manchin as Senator. In fact, Manchin and Tester's seats are incredibly valuable because those are in deep red states. We're highly unlikely to recapture either seat for a long time (WV is already a goner).

Just because we dislike Manchin's politics and cronyism doesn't mean he hasn't been good for our team.

Sinema I couldn't care less about because we will hold AZ anyway.
 
manly said:
Nonsense. Manchin is a DINO, but he helped enact Joe Biden's agenda through 2022.
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yeah yeah his vote was needed for covid recovery act and infrastructure. But he blocked far far more. If Biden was able to do everything he wanted, he’d get a Reagan landslide re-election
 
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