Simulated Nvidia Kepler GK110 Performance Preview

[ShintaiDK]

Another theory could be that, GK110 is only 2304SPs. But the SPs are optimized for GPGPU tasks compared to GK104. Meaning huge chip with alot of useless stuff for gamers. Then considering it would most likely be a 300W+ card at 1Ghz. And we already have the GTX690.

Could one not imagine that there wouldnt be a Geforce GTX 685(=) version of the GK110? But it could purely end up as Tesla and maybe Quadro cards only?

 

[blastingcap]

Right, the GTX 680 is going to drop by half its price. Has the 580 dropped its price by half in 20 months? It will be discontinued before it is sold en mass at 250 dollars.

When this is released as the top card I expect it to run 500-600 bucks as it replaces the 680 GTX.

I expect that to be true as well--if the performance is only 25-50% faster than GTX 680. If the GeForce that uses GK110 is like what this chart is saying, then yes I foresee massive depreciation of the GTX 680. Think 8800 GTX.

 

[RussianSensation]

I expect that to be true as well--if the performance is only 25-50% faster than GTX 680. If the GeForce that uses GK110 is like what this chart is saying, then yes I foresee massive depreciation of the GTX 680. Think 8800 GTX.

Ya, it might not be that GTX680 would drop to $299 since it will most likely be replaced by GTX760, but that level of gaming performance could only be sold for $299 if GK110 is 50%+ faster than GTX680 today unless NV decides to price GK110 at $750+ (which imo is digging a grave for discrete GPU market).

GTX580 is actually the exception, not the rule. All the previous high-end NV cards plummeted in value, including 8800GTX, GTX 280 and GTX480. There is not even a point in looking at depreciation rates before 8800GTX since back then GPUs became obsolete every 15-18 months or so.

This is the first generation I can recall in a while where last generation of cards is holding its value relatively well. Part of that is related to lack of any GTX660 parts and HD7870 being just 5-10% faster than HD6970 for $350. This generation is an outlier, not the rule imo. I feel like the performance increase from HD7970 to HD8970 and from GTX680 to GTX780 will be much greater than HD7970 / GTX680 from GTX580. As a result, the current cards stand to lose a lot of value. But that's how it has been in the past.

 

[BD231]

Wish this chip would just get here already, tired of waiting for a legitimate upgrade.

 

[blastingcap]

Ya, it might not be that GTX680 would drop to $299 since it will most likely be replaced by GTX760, but that level of gaming performance could only be sold for $299 if GK110 is 50%+ faster than GTX680 today unless NV decides to price GK110 at $750+ (which imo is digging a grave for discrete GPU market).

GTX580 is actually the exception, not the rule. All the previous high-end NV cards plummeted in value, including 8800GTX, GTX 280 and GTX480. There is not even a point in looking at depreciation rates before 8800GTX since back then GPUs become obsolete every 15-18 months or so.

This is the first generation I can recall in a while where last generation of cards are holding their value relatively well. Part of that is related to lack of any GTX660 parts and HD7870 being just 5-10% faster than HD6970 for $350. This generation is an outlier, not the rule imo. I feel like the performance increase from HD7970 to HD8970 and from GTX680 to GTX780 will be much greater than HD7970 / GTX680 from GTX580. As a result, the current cards stand to lose a lot of value. But that's how it has been in the past.

Actually when I wrote "think 8800 GTX" I was thinking about how it was double the speed of the previous high-end card which promptly cratered in value, especially as the 8800 GTX got polished into the 8800 GT. If GK110 is over twice the speed of a GTX 680 (the chart implies 118% faster!), I expect a similar nosedive by the GTX 680, possibly to $250.

 

[guskline]

Actually when I wrote "think 8800 GTX" I was thinking about how it was double the speed of the previous high-end card which promptly cratered in value, especially as the 8800 GTX got polished into the 8800 GT. If GK110 is over twice the speed of a GTX 680 (the chart implies 118% faster!), I expect a similar nosedive by the GTX 680, possibly to $250.

And when do you think this GK110 will be released?

 

[guskline]

If the GTX 680 drops that fast and far, I'm SLI ing!

 

[blastingcap]

And when do you think this GK110 will be released?

As the Tesla K20, I expect it to launch sometime next year.

I am not 100% sure if the GK110 will find its way into a GeForce card. If so, it won't be until after Tesla K20.

 

[LOL_Wut_Axel]

I expect that to be true as well--if the performance is only 25-50% faster than GTX 680. If the GeForce that uses GK110 is like what this chart is saying, then yes I foresee massive depreciation of the GTX 680. Think 8800 GTX.

IF GK110 did make it into a consumer GPU, it would be used to introduce the GeForce 700 series. It wouldn't be called the GTX 685, but rather the GTX 780.

 

[RussianSensation]

IF GK110 did make it into a consumer GPU, it would be used to introduce the GeForce 700 series. It wouldn't be called the GTX 685, but rather the GTX 780.

I don't think it matters what it will be called though. GTX570 provided GTX480 level of performance and cost $350. That took $150 out of 480's resale value right away. I expect HD8950 and GTX770 to be $400 or so which means GTX680 will have a resale value of $350 in 12 months. Who knows, maybe AMD will launch HD8950 for $550 though if it ends up being 5% faster than a GTX680. :sneaky:

 

[guskline]

Seems like a lot of ifs when they just released the GTX 670/680.

 

[toyota]

I hope that scrap the big GK110 for desktop and just come out with another pure gaming gpu like GK104 only beefier. 1920 to 2304 shaders and 384 bit would get the job done without being too pricey or power hungry.

 

[RussianSensation]

Seems like a lot of ifs when they just released the GTX 670/680.

Sure, but HD7970 was announced Dec 22, 2011, and was for sale Jan 9, 2012. I am willing to go on a limb and say that by May 2013, HD8970 will have been released and it will smash GTX680. NV can't wait long after that. Time will fly: Euro Cup 2012, Stanley Cup finals, NBA finals, 3 Tennis Grand Slams to go, a couple summer vacations/trips, camping trips, whatever it is you enjoy, next thing you know it's the end of August/beginning of September and HD8000 series is just 6-7 months away from that point. AMD is committed to being first out of the gate since that's actually a part of Rory's new GPU strategy (First mover advantage).

If HD8970 only has 2560 SPs, 1200mhz GPU clocks, 48 ROPs, GTX680 is ancient history. AMD has tons of memory bandwidth reserve; all they need to do is add pixel and shading performance, double the tessellation performance and bam you got yourself 40%+ performance increase over the 7970. We all know that nV hates to lose the single GPU performance crown.... 😀

 

[paul878]

Now Nvidia is coming out with Fantasy Ware?
Please, don't waste people time with this $shit!
Let me know when NewEgg have it in stock.

 

[LOL_Wut_Axel]

I don't think it matters what it will be called though. GTX570 provided GTX480 level of performance and cost $350. That took $150 out of 480's resale value right away. I expect HD8950 and GTX770 to be $400 or so which means GTX680 will have a resale value of $350 in 12 months. Who knows, maybe AMD will launch HD8950 for $550 though if it ends up being 5% faster than a GTX680. :sneaky:

I think AMD has a good opportunity to improve their clock speeds with the HD 8000 series. They should clock the HD 8970 at 1.1-1.2GHz. Along with some architectural tweaks, it shouldn't prove too difficult for them to extract a performance upgrade similar to what was seen going from HD 6970->HD 7970, especially since GCN's performance scales very well with frequency.

NVIDIA is already at some pretty high stock frequencies and Kepler's clock scaling isn't as good as GCN's, though. The GTX 680 already runs at a minimum of 1.05GHz...

 

[OVerLoRDI]

I think AMD has a good opportunity to improve their clock speeds with the HD 8000 series. They should clock the HD 8970 at 1.1-1.2GHz. Along with some architectural tweaks, it shouldn't prove too difficult for them to extract a performance upgrade similar to what was seen going from HD 6970->HD 7970, especially since GCN's performance scales very well with frequency.

NVIDIA is already at some pretty high stock frequencies and Kepler's clock scaling isn't as good as GCN's, though. The GTX 680 already runs at a minimum of 1.05GHz...

I hope you are right. If 8970 ends up being a solid performance increase vs 7970, that will be the card I'll be snagging.