Simple question Pascual release date estimates?

[philipma1957]

Can't find a thread on this site as to when I can get the newest gpu from nvidia

the links belong are good as any, but I wondered if I missed something.

I am doing a build for a friend he asked me to wait for it. So I am waiting.

Do we have more info then below?

http://www.cnet.com/news/nvidia-unveils-pascal-gpu/


http://wccftech.com/nvidia-pascal-gpu-gtc-2015/

http://blogs.nvidia.com/blog/2015/03/17/pascal/

http://www.anandtech.com/show/7900/nvidia-updates-gpu-roadmap-unveils-pascal-architecture-for-2016

 

[MagickMan]

middle of next year

 

[philipma1957]

middle of next year

thanks I will let my buddy know and most likely he will want a 980 ti

 

[Soccerman06]

Spring-summer 2016

 

[SteveGrabowski]

So no new Titan out next February after getting one the last three years?

 

[CakeMonster]

Since we know nothing about the performance of the part to be released, I'm not even interested in the release date. Who knows what segment they will start with, and who knows how much they will charge for that probably is X steps beneath faster parts that will follow within months.

 

[Qwertilot]

Well there's the release date, and the date at which a sensible person might want to buy one Agree they're probably not identical....

~Middle of next year seems as good a guess as any to have something sane to buy. We'll find out soon enough.

 

[nvgpu]

http://www.gputechconf.com/

APRIL 4-7, 2016
SILICON VALLEY

 

[Blue_Max]

Spring-summer 2016

Ah, so still 3-6 months from now. That aids my purchasing decision... somewhat. (The age-old buy now or squeak by until the new stuff decision...)

 

[MustISO]

I was hoping for sooner just to get some price drops on current hardware. I can always sit on my current GPU for a while longer I suppose.

 

[dark zero]

I feel that:
- High Tier: HBM2 comes at July 2016
- Mid Tier: GDDR6 comes at September 2016
- Low Tier: GDDR5 comes at November 2016 (Black Friday)
- God Tier: 2X HBM2 card (Dual GPU) and XX80Ti at March 2017

 

[poofyhairguy]

I guess a 750 ti replacement in the Spring.

A Titan replacement in the summer.

The actual cards we want (aka a 970 and 980 ti replacement) the very last day that is technically Q3.

 

[Actaeon]

Clearly just a guess, but based off what they did with Maxwell...

• Summer 2016 - Mid Tier - GP104 (970/980 updates; 6GB of GDDR5X; 980 Ti performance; $400-500)
• Fall/Winter 2016 - Low Tier - GP106 (950/960 updates; 4GB of GDDR5; 970/980 performance; $200-300)
• Spring 2017 - Uber Tier - GP100 (Titan X update; 16GB of HBM2; 50% performance increase over Titan X; $1000)
• Summer 2017 - High Tier - GP100 (980 Ti update; 8GB of HBM2; 50% increase over 980 Ti; $650-700)

Moves all current performance/memory down one tier on the hierarchy, representing an upgrade across the board. Quarterly updates keeps the product line fresh. Releasing the Mid Tier and God/High Tier nearly a year apart allows Nvidia to double dip on the enthusiasts who want the latest and greatest.

 

[RussianSensation]

Clearly just a guess, but based off what they did with Maxwell...

• Summer 2016 - Mid Tier - GP104 (970/980 updates; 6GB of GDDR5X; 980 Ti performance; $400-500)
• Fall/Winter 2016 - Low Tier - GP106 (950/960 updates; 4GB of GDDR5; 970/980 performance; $200-300)
• Spring 2017 - Uber Tier - GP100 (Titan X update; 16GB of HBM2; 50% performance increase over Titan X; $1000)
• Summer 2017 - High Tier - GP100 (980 Ti update; 8GB of HBM2; 50% increase over 980 Ti; $650-700)

Moves all current performance/memory down one tier on the hierarchy, representing an upgrade across the board. Quarterly updates keeps the product line fresh. Releasing the Mid Tier and God/High Tier nearly a year apart allows Nvidia to double dip on the enthusiasts who want the latest and greatest.

That's not what they did with Maxwell. With Maxwell they launched the lowest tier first with 750/750Ti with craptastic price/performance.

$150 750Ti was slower than the $130 650Ti Boost, $120 750 got owned hard by $130 650Ti Boost. Fun, fun.

https://www.techpowerup.com/reviews/ASUS/GTX_750_OC/25.html

650Ti Boost itself was a pretty awful card for price/performance to begin with.

Skipping 970/980 for a second, 960 also came out with awful price/performance. It took them more than 1.5 years to beat 760 by just 10-14%.

On launch date 980 beat 780Ti by just 5% at 1440P, the worst next gen x80 series increase of all time (not a surprise of course once you realize the marketing name 980 = 960Ti).

Contrast this with Kepler when 680 outperformed 580 by at least 35% and 780Ti outperform 580 by 2X. I sure hope for our sake that Pascal is more akin to Fermi -> Kepler rather than Kepler -> Maxwell.

Since now both companies are more interested in milking our wallets and splitting the generation into slow trickle of next gen parts, it's almost a complete shot in the dark to me just how much performance they are willing to give us in 2016 vs. 2017. Is it going to be 20-30% to start, 40-50%, or 15% with tons and tons of marketing slides telling us how perf/watt is the reason we should upgrade?

I'd get ready for slide decks filled with perf/watt marketing (possible inclusion of polar bears on ice to drive the point ), "Full" DX12 support (now with real hardware Asynchronous Compute?!), lots of slides about GameWorks VR, some new next gen lighting tech (say Voxel Global Illuminati Gen 2) that will cripple all current cards but looks good on a marketing slide, maybe TXAA Gen 2 (double the blur for more cinematic feel).

thanks I will let my buddy know and most likely he will want a 980 ti

I would tend to think if your friend is willing to spend $600-650 on a flagship 980Ti card, he isn't the type to worry about resale value or price/performance. He could just use the 980Ti now for the next 6-9 months and then upgrade to the next flagship card, whenever it comes out. If we are going to measure obsolescence based on if there will be some faster cards in 2016, then 980Ti will be superseded in 2016. If our friend doesn't care to not have the fastest card in 2016, then 980Ti OC will be a fine gaming card even if something is 20-30% faster in 2016. If he doesn't want to wait until Q2 2016 or later, I'd buy the 980Ti now if that's in his budget.

 

[Mondozei]

Clearly just a guess, but based off what they did with Maxwell...

• Summer 2016 - Mid Tier - GP104 (970/980 updates; 6GB of GDDR5X; 980 Ti performance; $400-500)
• Fall/Winter 2016 - Low Tier - GP106 (950/960 updates; 4GB of GDDR5; 970/980 performance; $200-300)
• Spring 2017 - Uber Tier - GP100 (Titan X update; 16GB of HBM2; 50% performance increase over Titan X; $1000)
• Summer 2017 - High Tier - GP100 (980 Ti update; 8GB of HBM2; 50% increase over 980 Ti; $650-700)

Moves all current performance/memory down one tier on the hierarchy, representing an upgrade across the board. Quarterly updates keeps the product line fresh. Releasing the Mid Tier and God/High Tier nearly a year apart allows Nvidia to double dip on the enthusiasts who want the latest and greatest.

RS' nitpicking about the 750 Ti aside, this is more or less the pattern we've seen so far for both Kepler and Maxwell. GK104/GM204 first(in terms of broad market availability, not one-off niche GPUs) and then the bigger uarch later on.

I'd just add that we'd likely see GP100 first out of the gate, but for HPC, and not for consumers. The wildcard here is the Titan card. Will NV make an extraordinarily expensive new Titan based off the GP100 in 2016? And instead of the traditional "we'll release the same GPU just a few months later for much cheaper"(like the 780 Ti or the 980 Ti) they might hold off until 2017, giving the GP100 Titan a very long runway compared to previous years.

It'd be interesting to see if the GPU would still sell, from a purely market perspective. RS likes to say that NV has a legion of buyers who are far less price sensitive and will not make a market analysis in a rational way(read: fanboys). Maybe.

But with the decline in dGPUs shipmets overall, we've more or less cut away the "casual"/home PC users. They are now mostly getting iGPUs or they are not getting a PC at all. Those who remain are now powerusers and enthusiasts and as such, their budgets are far less price sensitive. In such an environment, an overpriced Titan XYZ for GP100 might make more sense to keep around for more than a few months.

As always, this depends on AMD. AMD has in the last few years released GPUs who are superior hardware-wise to their NV competitors at their launch, at least if we look at the GK104/GP204 GPUs. Compare the 290 today with the 780, for example.

What held AMD back was poor drivers. Their GPUs didn't really come into their own until at least 6 months down the line. Most people judge by first impressions. And when the launch reviews are out, if AMD isn't clearly ahead, then that perception stays with people. That's just the performance. Now think about the poor reference coolers for both Hawaii and (initially) the Fury X.

If AMD get their redactedtogether and launch GPUs with non-crap coolers and non-crappy launch drivers, then NV's strategy would fall on its face. RTG, under Raja, has been making all the right moves since they got more power and autonomy, and I am hoping this will translate into strong 2016 GPU launches. I for one am hoping for a good Greeland plus a great CES 2016 where I can finally take a look at monitors with an AMD equivalent of ULMB which doesn't cost me one of my arms. I could sell my current G-Sync monitor at a profit in the aftermarket since I got it for cheap during BF. I want AMD to succeed but right now, for my needs, only NV can provide.





This is not the AMD sub forum. Limit the discussion to the topic at hand. Also, no profanity allowed in the tech section.


esquared
Anandtech Forum Director

 

[Actaeon]

That's not what they did with Maxwell. With Maxwell they launched the lowest tier first with 750/750Ti with craptastic price/performance.

$150 750Ti was slower than the $130 650Ti Boost, $120 750 got owned hard by $130 650Ti Boost. Fun, fun.

I was hoping to purge GM107 from my memory. I thought I did, but thanks for reminding me that existed. It'll take another two years to forget now

Weird, but that card seems so different from the GM20X series I kind of think of it as different family from the Maxwell product line today. Nvidia also agrees to an extent, hence the GM1xx vs GM2xx labeling.

 

[tviceman]

I think we'll get GP107 (low end) in March/April and GP104 (new high end until GP100) in April/May. I don't think GP100 will be out as a consumer card until late 2016, and even then it will be $1199-1299.

 

[Actaeon]

I'd just add that we'd likely see GP100 first out of the gate, but for HPC, and not for consumers. The wildcard here is the Titan card. Will NV make an extraordinarily expensive new Titan based off the GP100 in 2016? And instead of the traditional "we'll release the same GPU just a few months later for much cheaper"(like the 780 Ti or the 980 Ti) they might hold off until 2017, giving the GP100 Titan a very long runway compared to previous years.

Very possible. Nvidia has talked up the computing performance of Pascal. GK110 was the last high end chip that had any significant die space dedicated to computing. Maxwell ditched most of compute-centric functionality and used the die space for gaming/graphics. Their compute products is far older than their consumer/gaming products, so it would make sense to launch a professional/Titan product that is a successor to GK110 earlier than the consumer/gaming products.

 

[DooKey]

Lots of AMD talk here in this thread in the NV forum.......

 

[MrTeal]

Lots of AMD talk here in this thread in the NV forum.......

What are you talking about? Mondozi is the only one who even mentioned AMD, and then only in the capacity of AMD's results affecting nVidia's launch plans. No one even mentioned a single AMD card in a comparison.

 

[DooKey]

What are you talking about? Mondozi is the only one who even mentioned AMD, and then only in the capacity of AMD's results affecting nVidia's launch plans. No one even mentioned a single AMD card in a comparison.

Just to help you out I'll quote the rules of this forum from the sticky at the top of the page.

1) This is the NVidia subforum. Discussion of anything NVidia belongs here (drivers, software, cooling issues, overclocking). Discussion of like AMD products and issues belongs in the AMD subforum, not here.

 

[Actaeon]

What are you talking about? Mondozi is the only one who even mentioned AMD, and then only in the capacity of AMD's results affecting nVidia's launch plans. No one even mentioned a single AMD card in a comparison.

To his credit, I did have a reply in agreement with Mondozi about how AMD launches cards and the potential affect on Pascal before editing my post. Though I do disagree it was a post/topic worth complaining about, but just to keep it '100% on topic' I edited my post and removed it altogether.

 

[MrTeal]

Just to help you out I'll quote the rules of this forum from the sticky at the top of the page.

1) This is the NVidia subforum. Discussion of anything NVidia belongs here (drivers, software, cooling issues, overclocking). Discussion of like AMD products and issues belongs in the AMD subforum, not here.

Gotcha. Will make sure to say "Those other guys" if making a post saying that nVidia will launch Pascal before "Those other guys" get their competing product out.

To his credit, I did have a reply in agreement with Mondozi about how AMD launches cards and the potential affect on Pascal before editing my post. Though I do disagree it was a post/topic worth complaining about, but just to keep it '100% on topic' I edited my post and removed it altogether.

Fair enough, though I'd agree with you that it is a little silly to be reporting posts along that vein. VC&G might be a better location for a thread like this, but it is a little limiting to discuss launch timings for Pascal while assuming they operate in a competitive vacuum.

 

[DooKey]

I like the rules of this forum because I am tired of the AMD vs. NV crap that is constant in VC&G. I find the discussions here to be very relaxing compared to that cesspool and simply want to keep it that way. I also like to read the AMD forum for the same reasons. In case I didn't mention it VC&G is a cesspool.

 

[Actaeon]

Gotcha. Will make sure to say "Those other guys" if making a post saying that nVidia will launch Pascal before "Those other guys" get their competing product out.



Fair enough, though I'd agree with you that it is a little silly to be reporting posts along that vein. VC&G might be a better location for a thread like this, but it is a little limiting to discuss launch timings for Pascal while assuming they operate in a competitive vacuum.

I agree with the rule in general, it doesn't make sense to create a thread about 'GPUs named after islands' on the Nvidia subforum.

But I do think it is limiting that we can't mention 'those other guys' when their products and strategy directly influence the Nvidia product this thread was about. The two company's product roadmaps are directly intertwined. Ignoring the white elephant in the room does create a bit of a vacuum in the discussion and I think one of the reasons why this subforum is a bit dead. IMO as long as the discussion is civil and the mention of the 'those other guys' contributes to the discussion/topic it should be OK. But I don't make the rules.