Sick of hearing about the Eurozone debt crisis

jingramm

Senior member
Oct 25, 2009
779
2
76
We are still talking about Greece since 2008.
We are going to be talking about Spain for the next few months.
After that, we are going to be talking about Italy.
Then it's Portugal.

Is this ever going to end?
 

Moonbeam

Elite Member
Nov 24, 1999
74,615
6,717
126
Unfortunately, and I know how disappointing this can be to children, but the world really doesn't pay much attention to things that upset individuals. What upsets you and what you get tired of are of relative little importance in the great scheme of things.
 

mshan

Diamond Member
Nov 16, 2004
7,868
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"As some may recall, back in October 2009, Zero Hedge did an exhaustive expose on the relationship between JPMorgan and the then version of MF Global, Lehman Brothers, whose perfectly functioning division, its North American Brokerage, ended up being scooped up by Barclays for pennies on the dollar. In the meantime, however, JPMorgan, with the backing of the Fed, proceeded to demand as much extra collateral for Lehman repo positions on hold with JP Morgan and the Tri-Party repo system, of which JPM is one of only two custodians, simply because it could, and because this is the easiest way for the bank that is even closer to the Fed than Goldman Sachs, to procure liquidity during times of broad distress. Such as when the money market is about to freeze to death. Since then, the topic of just how much JPMorgan may have ripped off the Lehman estate has escalated, and is set to be an epic showdown in the form of a lawsuit which "accuses JPMorgan of using its “life and death power as the brokerage firm’s primary clearing bank” to put a “financial gun” to its head and demand excess collateral." And here is the kicker: "It claims JPMorgan abused its access to US government officials and then “accelerated Lehman’s free fall into bankruptcy”, hoovering up collateral to protect itself to the detriment of the firm and other eventual creditors."

And therein lies the rub: because of all TBTF banks, JPMorgan is literally at the nexus of the entire $16 trillion shadow banking system, the very system that the Fed, much more than traditional liabilities, knows and uses constantly to hypothecate and rehypothecate assets, in essence creating money out of nothing, and which in conjunction with the other Tri-Party repo dealer, Bank of New York, as well as State Street, provides the US financial system with over $30 trillion in shadow credit money in the form of custodial assets - liquidity the bulk of which is not accounted for in any conventional monetary textbook or in any modern theory of money as it is such a novel development, yet which is still 100% fungible, and is by far the biggest secret of the American monetary system. It can be seen as summarized in the following graphic, first created by Citi's Matt King back in the week before Lehman failed (full report can be read here, and should be by anyone who wishes to understand just what is truly going on behind the scenes in modern finance)."

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/blyth...n-its-gold-axed-clients-and-doing-wrong-thing

http://londonbanker.blogspot.com/2012/01/survivor-bias-and-tbtf-tyranny.html

http://londonbanker.blogspot.com/2008/10/financial-eugenics-paulson-plan-for.html


To me, they are all manifestations of the same thing - stress that the shadow banking system is coming apart, and in particular, in a manner that is feared to be at disorderly.

The ruling elites all around the world want "financial stability" (http://londonbanker.blogspot.com/2011/12/why-i-oppose-financial-stability.html) which means maintain the status quo by using other people's money to hold system together (don't know how to quantify this, but it will probably more in terms of slower than potential growth of economy, debasement of currency (less buying power for dollar), and higher inflation (gentleman's way to default on debt), and then slowly de-risk and de-lever over time.
 
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gevorg

Diamond Member
Nov 3, 2004
5,070
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don't worry, something nice is cooking for 2012, a major natural disaster or another war, something will happen :)
 

LegendKiller

Lifer
Mar 5, 2001
18,256
68
86
To me, they are all manifestations of the same thing - stress that the shadow banking system is coming apart, and in particular, in a manner that is feared to be at disorderly.

The ruling elites all around the world want "financial stability" (http://londonbanker.blogspot.com/2011/12/why-i-oppose-financial-stability.html) which means maintain the status quo by using other people's money to hold system together (don't know how to quantify this, but it will probably more in terms of slower than potential growth of economy, debasement of currency (less buying power for dollar), and higher inflation (gentleman's way to default on debt), and then slowly de-risk and de-lever over time.

I find it humorous that this guy, just like ZH, takes a kernel of truth and then twists it to some uber-conspiracy theory, like "looting" the treasury for $700bn (which has been pretty much repaid).

The Repo market isn't that big of a deal, it's taking invested funds and investing them, as allowed by the prospectus and as expected by those who are depositing the funds into the trustee.


The bulk of the citi presentation is correct though, the BD model is/was broken. They couldn't compete with the big boys when it came to full-service IB (providing large loan syndicates, warehousing securitization assets, securitizing themselves...etc), so they levered up. Since they didn't have a deposit base, nor a huge capital base, the only way they could get effective/cheap funding was to do short-term Repo facilities with their own assets, multiplying leverage.
 
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mshan

Diamond Member
Nov 16, 2004
7,868
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"If anyone thought that you couldn’t have your cake and eat it too in the world of finance, MF Global shows how you can have your cake, eat it, eat someone else’s cake and then let your clients pick up the bill. Hard cheese for many as their dough goes missing."


...


"HYPER-HYPOTHECATION

With weak collateral rules and a level of leverage that would make Archimedes tremble, firms have been piling into re-hypothecation activity with startling abandon. A review of filings reveals a staggering level of activity in what may be the world’s largest ever credit bubble.

Fuelling hyper-hypothecation and joining together daisy chains of liability through the pledging and re-pledging of collateral have been banks around the world. Once in the system collateral is being pledged and re-pledged over and over again either through sale and repurchase agreements or re-hypothecation as demonstrated by a review of SEC filings. For instance, Goldman Sachsdisclosed recently that it had re-pledged $18.03 billion of collateral received as at September 2011, Oppenheimer Holdings re-pledged approximately $255.4 million of its own customers’ securities in the same period, Canadian Imperial Bank of Commercere-pledged $72 billion in client assets, Credit Suissesold or re-pledged CHF 332 billion of assets (received under resale agreements, securities lending and margined broker loans), Royal Bank of Canadare-pledged $53.8 billion of $126.7 billion available for re-pledging, Knight Capital Groupdelivered or re-pledged $1.17 billion of financial instruments received, Interactive Brokers re-pledged or re-sold $7.9 billion of $16.7 billion available to re-sell or re-pledge, Wells Fargo re-pledged $19.6 billion as at September 2011 of collateral received under resale agreements and securities borrowings, JP Morgansold or re-pledged $410 billion of collateral received under customer margin loans, derivative transactions, securities borrowed and reverse repurchase agreements and Morgan Stanley re-pledged $410 billion of securities received.


LIQUIDITY CRISIS

The volume and level of re-hypothecation suggests a frightening alternative hypothesis for the current liquidity crisis being experienced by banks and for why regulators around the world decided to step in to prop up the markets recently. To date, reports have been focused on how Eurozone default concerns were provoking fear in the markets and causing liquidity to dry up.

Most have been focused on how a Eurozone default would result in huge losses in Eurozone bonds being felt across the world’s banks. However, re-hypothecation suggests an even greater fear. Considering that re-hypothecation may have increased the financial footprint of Eurozone bonds by at least four fold then a Eurozone sovereign default could be apocalyptic.

U.S. banks direct holding of sovereign debt is hardly negligible. According to the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), U.S. banks hold $181 billion in the sovereign debt of Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain. If we factor in off-balance sheet transactions such as re-hypothecations and repos, then the picture becomes frightening.

As for MF Global’s clients, the recent adoption of an “MF Global rule” by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to ban using client funds to purchase foreign sovereign debt, would seem to suggest that it was indeed client money behind its leveraged repo-to-maturity deal - a fact that will likely mean that very few MF Global clients get their money back.


...


LEHMAN LESSONS

In fact this is exactly what Lehman Brothers did through Lehman Brothers International (Europe) (LBIE), an English subsidiary to which most U.S. hedge fund assets were transferred. Once transferred to the UK based company, assets were re-hypothecated many times over, meaning that when the debt carousel stopped, and Lehman Brothers collapsed, many U.S. funds found that their assets had simply vanished.

A prime broker need not even require that an investor (eg hedge fund) sign all agreements with a European subsidiary to take advantage of the loophole. In fact, in Lehman’s case many funds signed a prime brokerage agreement with Lehman Brothers Inc (a U.S. company) but margin-lending agreements and securities-lending agreements with LBIE in the UK (normally conducted under a Global Master Securities Lending Agreement).

These agreements permitted Lehman to transfer client assets between various affiliates without the fund’s express consent, despite the fact that the main agreement had been under U.S. law. As a result of these peripheral agreements, all or most of its clients’ assets found their way down to LBIE."




http://newsandinsight.thomsonreuter...d_the_great_Wall_St_re-hypothecation_scandal/

And hasn't Ben Bernake actually uttered the words "financial stability" and "shadow banking system" in two public speeches in last week or so? (IIRC, financial stability were the words Merkel was uttering last winter, too) (I think Bernake also said Lehman was a "classic financial panic" in one of those speeches or question and answer sessions afterwards)
 
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FoBoT

No Lifer
Apr 30, 2001
63,084
15
81
fobot.com
Is this ever going to end?

they owe a mega crap load of money
they are spending more than they bring in
how will they ever repay it all?

so when will it end? yeah, when will it ever end or how will it ever end

i think the plan is either inflation or hyper-inflation

or maybe war
 

theeedude

Lifer
Feb 5, 2006
35,787
6,197
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Eurozone is overdoing it with austerity. There is a difference between tightening your belt and hanging yourself from it.
 

DucatiMonster696

Diamond Member
Aug 13, 2009
4,269
1
71
Eurozone is overdoing it with austerity. There is a difference between tightening your belt and hanging yourself from it.

It is precisely the austerity measures taken by Germany (and other European nations) that enabled it to weather the storm and be in the position to offer help to mega debt abusers such as Greece. Without Germany taking a austere measure to ensure and curb its spending countries such as Greece would be up a creek without a paddle and the situation would be much worse.
 

a777pilot

Diamond Member
Apr 26, 2011
4,261
21
81
We are still talking about Greece since 2008.
We are going to be talking about Spain for the next few months.
After that, we are going to be talking about Italy.
Then it's Portugal.

Is this ever going to end?

I'm not tired of hearing about it.

I'm hoping that soon the EU will collapse and taking their little Euro bye-bye, too.
 

epidemis

Senior member
Jun 6, 2007
794
0
0
We are still talking about Greece since 2008.
We are going to be talking about Spain for the next few months.
After that, we are going to be talking about Italy.
Then it's Portugal.

Is this ever going to end?

People need to a scape goat :X
 

Jhhnn

IN MEMORIAM
Nov 11, 1999
62,365
14,685
136
It is precisely the austerity measures taken by Germany (and other European nations) that enabled it to weather the storm and be in the position to offer help to mega debt abusers such as Greece. Without Germany taking a austere measure to ensure and curb its spending countries such as Greece would be up a creek without a paddle and the situation would be much worse.

Austerity now, or at some time in the past, when the bubble was inflating?

Germany's economy is export driven, largely to the periphery countries, and when those countries can't buy, Germans lose jobs & domestic demand goes down, too. So they need to counter that lack of demand by creating demand at home, which they're actually doing, even as they talk a good game of austerity-

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...iews/austerity-not-in-germany/article2392231/

Austerity in the UK? A self defeating spiral-

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/cifamerica/2012/jan/31/europe-austerity-debacle

Austerity in recession benefits only the Rich, because there's no better time to be that way than when everybody else is broke. That's when you get to put the hammer to 'em, squeeze 'em for all they're worth.

Spain's problems are not due to fiscal policy, at all, nor were Ireland's until they took on their Bankers' debts...
 

Jhhnn

IN MEMORIAM
Nov 11, 1999
62,365
14,685
136
I'm not tired of hearing about it.

I'm hoping that soon the EU will collapse and taking their little Euro bye-bye, too.


Let me translate- "I got mine. Screw You."

Maybe your pension fund will go broke in the process. We can only hope.
 

a777pilot

Diamond Member
Apr 26, 2011
4,261
21
81
You think they would go to the dollar?

LOL!

The smart money is already flowing into America. They will have no choice.

The whole reason for creating the EU and their Euro was to over take the USA as the number one economy and replace the dollar as the reserve currency of the world. So I really don't care if they suffer.
 

freegeeks

Diamond Member
May 7, 2001
5,460
1
81
LOL!

The smart money is already flowing into America. They will have no choice.

The whole reason for creating the EU and their Euro was to over take the USA as the number one economy and replace the dollar as the reserve currency of the world. So I really don't care if they suffer.

the USA debt/gdp ratio has passed the 100% mark and is very fast getting even bigger because of the huge deficits. The next sovereign debt crisis will be in the USA. The problems in Greece, Spain and Italy will be a walk in the park compared with that.
 

gevorg

Diamond Member
Nov 3, 2004
5,070
1
0
the USA debt/gdp ratio has passed the 100% mark and is very fast getting even bigger because of the huge deficits. The next sovereign debt crisis will be in the USA. The problems in Greece, Spain and Italy will be a walk in the park compared with that.

Unlike Greece, Spain or Italy, USA can just print its way out of any debt. Sure, a bunch of countries will whine and moan, but who else will they invest in? A few years of bad credit ratings, and then rinse & repeat. Most Americans don't even save and would be grateful for their personal debts/loans to "shrink". :)
 

RbSX

Diamond Member
Jan 18, 2002
8,351
1
76
We are still talking about Greece since 2008.
We are going to be talking about Spain for the next few months.
After that, we are going to be talking about Italy.
Then it's Portugal.

Is this ever going to end?

The rest of the world has to hear about your fucking stupid country every day. For fucks sakes, welcome to our lives.

As said above, the USA's debt crisis will make these guys look like a fucking cake walk.
 

freegeeks

Diamond Member
May 7, 2001
5,460
1
81
Unlike Greece, Spain or Italy, USA can just print its way out of any debt. Sure, a bunch of countries will whine and moan, but who else will they invest in? A few years of bad credit ratings, and then rinse & repeat. Most Americans don't even save and would be grateful for their personal debts/loans to "shrink". :)

say hi to hyperinflation

printing money is not a solution