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Shutdown over?

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Trump puts a very high value on the loyalty his base has shown him. FWIW, that's his primary concern considering the fact that by now he knows that's all the support he has left to rely on. This is a high value factor in whatever decisions he makes and is a key issue to consider for those who must negotiate with him for deals.

There are those hard liners that are close to him that need to be dealt with in order for Trump to make some kind of compromise deal. I'm thinking they and not Trump are the ones who killed the Senate deal. Therefore, foremost on the path to an agreement is that those hard liners must be convinced that it's better to compromise than fall on their swords of extremism and maybe, just maybe some good things will happen for all involved.
 
Starbuck1975 said:
Schumer and Trump have an interesting relationship and dynamic. I actually see the two of them getting together as a positive thing, as they can flesh out a deal NY style.
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I just hope Schumer is smart enough to demand payment upfront for any deal they make. If he accepts a 'do this for me now and I'll do that for you later' type of deal history has shown that Trump will change his mind about the deal after the fact.
 
glenn1 said:
Agreed but this has come down to an issue of tying a sensitive vote like this to either a lift in debt ceiling or spending bills. GOP was widely criticized the last times for attempting to "hold the debt ceiling vote hostage" by demanding budget cuts or "ending Obamacare" as part of the deal. Trump should simply replay video of Obama saying "I won't negotiate under threat" from the last time the same situation happened but on the other side:

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of course cramming through an economy-determining massive tax bill overnight, unread, and through intentionally duplicitous means is cool. Further tying elimination of essential health care coverage to tens of millions into that historic wealth transfer, of course: even for the bester.
 
Starbuck1975 said:
Schumer and Trump have an interesting relationship and dynamic. I actually see the two of them getting together as a positive thing, as they can flesh out a deal NY style.
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Trump likes the familiar and Chuck is that for sure.

Simplest outcome here would be to just do the Durbin/Graham proposal plus border security funds goosed a bit so Trump can declare a victory and make his party tomorrow. Other possibility is a 5-7 day CR.
 
SMOGZINN said:
I just hope Schumer is smart enough to demand payment upfront for any deal they make. If he accepts a 'do this for me now and I'll do that for you later' type of deal history has shown that Trump will change his mind about the deal after the fact.
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Schumer is too smart to fall for that, plus he’s from NY he reads the paper.
I predict a deal that Trump gets something to appease his ego, Democrats get something concrete regarding DACA with some path to citizenship and CHIP, Republicans get some trivial concession about no DACA criminal record and they will be pissed
 
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Starbuck1975 said:
I am not blaming the Dems for the shutdown. This is all on Trump. But Trump thrives on disruption, so its not surprising, and I enjoy watching the bureaucrats squirm and dance as their waterboys fling talking points at one another.

I do blame the Dems for DACA. Obama enacted it under the assumption of inevitability and the inpenetrable Maginot line blue wall.
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Republicans repealed it without a plan in place. In fact the only reason Trump even waded into the DACA waters were because a number of republican attorney general's were about to file suit against DACA and the Trump administration didn't want to have to defend it in court. It wasn't because Trump suddenly thought DACA needed to end or was a problem; rather just legally and politically it would be suicide to have republican state AGs on one side and the Trump administration on the other side of an issue.

Options could have been:
1) leaving DACA in place and forcing negotiations between your own party first as to a credible replacement plan before doing anything (at the least the GOP should be unified as to what they want. Currently there is no plan even on the GOP side as to what they would like)
2) terminating DACA with a long leash (ie plan will end at 2022 on the watch of the next president who can do whatever they want. That way you look good to your base but don't actually have to fall on the sword either)
3) terminating DACA but grandfathering in all current recipients as permanent citizens and then leaving Congress to deal with plans for the future

And so on and on. The blame clearly falls only on the GOP because if they hadn't filed suit hastily or without communication/agreement with their president we wouldn't be here. You can't just do something without a plan as to the consequences and also they had quite a bit of time before hand to come up with something (the same as with healthcare)
 
Sunburn74 said:
Republicans repealed it without a plan in place. In fact the only reason Trump even waded into the DACA waters were because a number of republican attorney general's were about to file suit against DACA and the Trump administration didn't want to have to defend it in court. It wasn't because Trump suddenly thought DACA needed to end or was a problem; rather just legally and politically it would be suicide to have republican state AGs on one side and the Trump administration on the other side of an issue.

Options could have been:
1) leaving DACA in place and forcing negotiations between your own party first as to a credible replacement plan before doing anything (at the least the GOP should be unified as to what they want. Currently there is no plan even on the GOP side as to what they would like)
2) terminating DACA with a long leash (ie plan will end at 2022 on the watch of the next president who can do whatever they want. That way you look good to your base but don't actually have to fall on the sword either)
3) terminating DACA but grandfathering in all current recipients as permanent citizens and then leaving Congress to deal with plans for the future

And so on and on. The blame clearly falls only on the GOP because if they hadn't filed suit hastily or without communication/agreement with their president we wouldn't be here. You can't just do something without a plan as to the consequences and also they had quite a bit of time before hand to come up with something (the same as with healthcare)
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That's a fair assessment. I would counter that you can't responsibly create an entitlement under the auspice of it being "temporary", effectively kicking the can down the road, and then fault someone for finally having the audacity to just crush the can
 
Starbuck1975 said:
That's a fair assessment. I would counter that you can't responsibly create an entitlement under the auspice of it being "temporary", effectively kicking the can down the road, and then fault someone for finally having the audacity to just crush the can
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Go for it, crush that can. Instead, Cons and prez are trying to conjure up some plan to fund the wall, or whatever this minutes "plan" is.
 
I love win-win scenarios.

If the GOP/Trump strike a deal to avert at shutdown, we get DACA and CHIP. Approving DACA will be a huge win for 75% of Americans who support it and will thoroughly piss off Trump's 25% base. Eroding the enthusiasm of his base will make the Midterms that much sweeter for Democrats.

If the GOP/Trump don't strike a deal on DACA and CHIP, they get the blame and the government grinds to a halt, both of which are favorable for people who want a big, beautiful Blue Wave in November.
 
Schumer cites "some progress, some differences" after his meeting. Now gone to huddle with Pelosi/Durbin.

I'll put the probability that some deal is being floated at Moderate. If it's something some Rs won't like (which is basically anything at this point) assurance of D buy-in would be required before busting it into the open.

Or there is nothing and Congress is going spend the weekend angry stuck in DC with Trump...lol.
 
K1052 said:
Schumer cites "some progress, some differences" after his meeting. Now gone to huddle with Pelosi/Durbin.

I'll put the probability that some deal is being floated at Moderate. If it's something some Rs won't like (which is basically anything at this point) assurance of D buy-in would be required before busting it into the open.

Or there is nothing and Congress is going spend the weekend angry stuck in DC with Trump...lol.
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Congratulatory Chuck & Nancy tweet arriving within 5 hours
 
SMOGZINN said:
I doubt if Trump is staying in DC. In his estimation he can sign a bill from his vacation home in FL just as well as in the White House.
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Democrats would have a field day with those optics. I'm sure there will be temptation but I'd expect universal advice not to do that.
 
K1052 said:
Democrats would have a field day with those optics. I'm sure there will be temptation but I'd expect universal advice not to do that.
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When did Trump ever listen to advice, universal or otherwise? I doubt Trump is not going to miss his fancy dinner with rich people and golf just so he can sit in the White House and wait for a bill to sign.
 
This shut down is already all kinds of fun. Stable genius can't fly down to his shithole in FL to play golf. Congress critters don't get to leave the swamp. It's great.


Why didn't we shut this government down a year ago?
 
Starbuck1975 said:
That's a fair assessment. I would counter that you can't responsibly create an entitlement under the auspice of it being "temporary", effectively kicking the can down the road, and then fault someone for finally having the audacity to just crush the can
Click to expand...

That's depersonalization, right? It's not about people but just some can...
 
Starbuck1975 said:
Schumer and Trump have an interesting relationship and dynamic. I actually see the two of them getting together as a positive thing, as they can flesh out a deal NY style.
Click to expand...
That Trump will immediately renege on the moment one of his many readily available scumbags opens their mouths.
 
cytg111 said:
Dont pit this on the dems. Republicans and Trump is shutting the US government down, noone else.

If the dems cave on this one they shall forever hereon be known as chickenocrats. Take a motherfucking stand.
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Two contradictory concepts. You don't want blame for opposing the CR. But you want to make a stand on government shutdown.
 
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