Discussion Should MLID be considered a legitimate source

[Hitman928]

To keep this topic from polluting other threads, I've created its own.

@dullard

Here is your list that you wanted to discuss:

Nov 2020

Spoiler

June 2021

Spoiler

June 2022

Spoiler

Nov 2022

Spoiler

Dec 2022

Spoiler

May 2023

Spoiler

June 2023

Spoiler

1. I listed this as wrong because MTL not being Ocean Cove was known well before this "leak" and he continued to report it as Ocean Cove well after others knew it wasn't. So he is just trying to save face here by claiming he basically knew it was RWC all along but just called it Ocean Cove because his source wanted him to.
2. I don't think there's any real way to confirm that RWC was actually designed to be node agnostic so I'm not listing it as wrong, but others say that it isn't. Even if it was, this is not a leak. Intel themselves put out press slides the year before this "leak" talking about how future design work would be node agnostic and that designs would have opportunities to be fabricated on multiple nodes if needed. Others have reported that this didn't really start until ARL.
3. MTL was not 3D stacked. You may give him credit for saying it would utilize an IO die (possibly from TSMC) but if you look at this "leak" he predicts that it could be 3D stacked, and/or utilize a separate IO die and that die might be from TSMC, or it could be monolithic. He literally puts out every possible configuration it could be so no matter what, he could claim he was right. He does not get credit for any part of this.
4. ADL was completely monolithic. You're probably giving him credit for "leaking" that MTL was a tiled design but once again, this was known before his leak. In fact, it was tweeted out by an Intel executive before MLID even made his video.
5. Crestmont's name had been bouncing around for months before MLID's video on it.
6. Maybe this is the best prediction he gets most credit for but Intel had been talking about adding AI type blocks into their SoCs before he leaked it.
7. Again, known before his video. We even had die shots of MTL by this point.
8. See here.
9. MTL does not beat RPL across the board, not even close. It is more efficient but, well, duh.
10. Finally concedes one month after his previous update video that MTL desktop doesn't exist but still hints that it just might come out in 2024. Only thing correct here is that 6p+8e is the top die but that had already been known for a long time by this point.
11. Already known
12. Already leaked
13. Already known for at least a year.

This is in addition to the many videos he has deleted after his leaks turned out to be completely false (see here) as well as other topics that he has covered where others have called out is inaccuracies (see here and here for examples).

Now this took me way to long to go through but this is a big reason why myself and most everybody else does not see him as legitimate, in addition to just hearing him talk on subjects and quickly realizing he has no clue what he's actually talking about. Feel free to discuss but I'm out for a bit as I now have real work to catch up on.

 

[dullard]

For reference, this is what the discussion stemmed from, is MLID's information made up or is it legitimate? My claim is BOTH but that at least MLID gives rankings on how reliable/unreliable he feels his topics are. And we should treat his posts that way, keeping in mind whether or not each point is wild speculation or highly likely.

So, any point regarding "already leaked" or "already known" is irrelevant to this thread. It is from a discussion of whether or not he makes stuff up and if so are the made up stuff marked as highly credible or not.

Not maybe, he does make stuff up. That's the problem with having a YT show built around leaks, his audience expects him to deliver on time & every time, so he ALWAYS has something for any upcoming product from Intel, AMD, Nvidia. If some bird chirps in his ear it's all good, if not then he'll make do with the wind.

He does make stuff up. But he also ALWAYS indicates what stuff is likely real and what is just wild rumor. To pretend that his stuff is all real or all made up is disingenuous. We can do better than that. Just report it as he does: likely true or likely rumor.

Too many people here just want to deny anything he says, even the true stuff, just because some stuff is wild rumor. I worry that you fall into that category. It would be the same to just dismiss all of this forum because some posts are rumor.

 

[Kepler_L2]

MLID's Intel "leaks" in particular have been egregiously wrong, he claimed Meteor Lake would have +21% IPC, Arrow Lake +34% IPC and Panther Lake +40% IPC. That's a 126% IPC increase in the space of 24 months, and it should have been immediately obvious to anyone with even minimal technical knowledge that it's simply impossible.

 

[yuri69]

MLID's apparently been able to present genuine AMD NDA-protected slides for some time. So my advice is to 100% disregard all his written comments and focus just on the 3rd party original slides.

Zen 5 original slides so far has been confirmed 100% true.

 

[CakeMonster]

I mostly stopped clicking a few years ago, but I remember finding several obvious lies and claiming others' info as his own early on. "When someone shows you who they are, believe them the first time". Many newcomers might not even remember or know that. I don't deal with people like that, period. Red flags and all that. I can forgive almost anything, but that requires people to actually admit to it.

I don't doubt that he might at some time later on might have gotten some legit info from somewhere, but that's not the point. From everything I've seen his content is still laughable when it comes to journalistic standards.

 

[coercitiv]

MLID's apparently been able to present genuine AMD NDA-protected slides for some time.

He's also been able to come up with genuine Intel information, in fact in the past his track record was better with Intel than with AMD. His problem is the hit rate, it's always been too low for his leaks to be exclusively based on real sources. Mind you, I'm not talking about speculation which @dullard insists MLID always marks as such, I'm talking about claims he presents as backed up by insider info.


Here's a recent example from his Battlemage updates:

Spoiler: July 2023 vs. January 2024

In the course of ~6 months his info about the bigger BMG die has gone from 362mm2 on TSMC 4nm to 387mm2 on TSMC 5nm. Giving this type of exact information and then changing with another exact number should be a red flag for anyone with an engineering or financial education. Someone who's merely speculating on the die size would come up with something like 350-400mm2 or ~370mm2.

We can explain the change in timeline from H2 2024 launch to a 2025 launch as unforeseen delays, but there cannot be anything unforeseen about the exact die size and node used in production. Some info was made up, at best by his sources and at worst by him.

 

[S'renne]

Ok so somehow one of his Zen 5 slides was fully accurate, is that applicable to his Strix Halo slides

 

[uzzi38]

Ok so somehow one of his Zen 5 slides was fully accurate, is that applicable to his Strix Halo slides

There's a major feature of STX-Halo that hasn't leaked yet so I'd assume no-one has got actual slides on the part yet. At least not detailed enough slides that I'd be confident in all of the core parts of the thing (don't ask me what it is, when you find out, you'll know what I'm referring to).

Just setting expectations here.

 

[coercitiv]

There's a major feature of STX-Halo that hasn't leaked yet so I'd assume no-one has got actual slides on the part yet. At least not detailed enough slides that I'd be confident in all of the core parts of the thing (don't ask me what it is, when you find out, you'll know what I'm referring to).

Just setting expectations here.

That's not fair. Last time we at least got the "lasagna" code word, I would argue you (or the others with original access) are obliged to provide us with the appropriate cooking related metaphor.

 

[igor_kavinski]

There's a major feature of STX-Halo that hasn't leaked yet

Oh goody. Guessing game, yay!

Has to be either huge cache or on-package RAM to enable unified memory architecture for CPU/GPU, making zero copy between the two processors possible.

 

[Thibsie]

For reference, this is what the discussion stemmed from, is MLID's information made up or is it legitimate? My claim is BOTH but that at least MLID gives rankings on how reliable/unreliable he feels his topics are. And we should treat his posts that way, keeping in mind whether or not each point is wild speculation or highly likely.

So, any point regarding "already leaked" or "already known" is irrelevant to this thread. It is from a discussion of whether or not he makes stuff up and if so are the made up stuff marked as highly credible or not.

Ok but then the thread isn't relevant because MLID shouldn't even be regarded as a leaker.

 

[igor_kavinski]

MLID shouldn't even be regarded as a leaker.

He does leak. Stuff. Never mind.

 

[CouncilorIrissa]

Imagine referring to MLID unironically.

 

[igor_kavinski]

You can learn a lot of things watching him talk. Like how to BS your way out of anything. Very useful skill in the real world.

 

[CouncilorIrissa]

I suggest that mods sticky this thread. Much more relevant than the Spectre/Meltdown one.

 

[Hulk]

I find MLID tremendously entertaining. I view it more as a guy who is really into tech and based on "some" information he make predictions. He seems like a nice guy too.

 

[CouncilorIrissa]

I'd find him much more tolerable if it wasn’t for his self-congratulatory attitude.

 

[dullard]

Ok but then the thread isn't relevant because MLID shouldn't even be regarded as a leaker.

Correct. In the thread that stemmed this one, we were NOT talking about leakers or sources. The discussion was about valid repositories of leaks. What places can we go to and have valid rumors and which places/people are invalid? The idea was to have a ranking of which are better or worse by rating the validity of each point. Unfortunately @Hitman928 misinterpreted the idea into a who is an original leaker/source thread.

Is there any actual interest in a thread that rates how often a location has correctly vs. incorrectly posted upcoming CPU concepts? For example Is MLID correct 10% of the time or 80%? How does that compare to the validity of others? And if I make that thread, will it just be merged into this bastard of a thread?

 

[Hulk]

I look at MLID in somewhat the same way I watch science fiction, I know it's not real but it's fun to watch and some of it "could" be real. He does his thing well. He speaks well, limits the number of "ums" and "soooo's," throws in some pretty good humor, and knows how to act in front of a camera. I do like the older attic "cave" style place he used to record from rather than the room I'm seeing now. The attic was like, "I've gotta hide up here in this attic or else their gonna come and get me because I have a lot of super secret documents!"

I also absolutely love the other guy that is often on with him who kind of looks like his heavier brother. He rarely speaks but is seemingly working away like mad while MLID is speaking! It's simply fantastic entertainment when you just need something in the background when you're folding clothes or doing mindless work.

Finally, when it comes to actually buying parts for a computer his advice is generally very good. You certainly wouldn't be making any big mistakes if you followed his build advice.

OMG! I think I'm a fan!

 

[adamge]

Nineteen posts and not mention of the phrase "ARC IS CANCELLED"?

 

[igor_kavinski]

Maybe his reporting of ARC getting cancelled motivated Intel to not quit?

Pat got into a room with them, heard them out, remembered his Larrabee disaster and said, "My dead body before I let myself be associated with another failed GPU effort!"

Then he took Raja Koduri into a corner and told him, "Loved your biryani, mate but you put me in a bad position. Tell you what? I'll re-imburse you the biryani cost and you resign without drama? Deal?"

Koduri thought it over. He knew defiance wouldn't lead him anywhere. He had let everyone down. He had let HIMSELF down. Plus, he felt like having some biryani. So he accepted the offer.

Next day, he was sitting in the best Hyderabadi Indian Restaurant he knew and ate his biryani quietly, contemplating the future of computing. Gazillion petaflops would have to wait. The world just isn't ready for it yet. He called up Jim Keller. Offered him some biryani. Keller hired him immediately!

 

[Saylick]

Oh goody. Guessing game, yay!

Has to be either huge cache or on-package RAM to enable unified memory architecture for CPU/GPU, making zero copy between the two processors possible.

If STX-Halo doesn't have original Halo permanently stored in its Infinity Cache as an always-playable game then I don't want it.

 

[FlameTail]

on-package RAM to enable unified memory architecture for CPU/GPU, making zero copy between the two processors possible.

Ok that's very interesting. Apple iGPUs notably do this.

But don't Intel/AMD iGPUs do it already?

 

[FlameTail]

I do like the older attic "cave" style place he used to record from rather than the room I'm seeing now. The attic was like, "I've gotta hide up here in this attic or else their gonna come and get me because I have a lot of super secret documents!"

Attic dwelling caveman!

I also absolutely love the other guy that is often on with him who kind of looks like his heavier brother. He rarely speaks but is seemingly working away like mad while MLID is speaking!

I don't get that impression at all. It seems like that dude hasn't gone outside and seen the sun for years. Either that or he has an ultra low quality webcam.

Finally, when it comes to actually buying parts for a computer his advice is generally very good. You certainly wouldn't be making any big mistakes if you followed his build advice.

Schrodinger's Build!

 

[inf64]

The Redwood Cove IPC leak was priceless. He even apologized for the "huge range". Dude, how about there is no range LMAO

I think he gets scraps and pieces from some insiders but no tier 1 sources. He is basically farming likes/views with sensationally mostly made-up content.