Originally posted by: Zarick
Would it be wise at this point to wait until the amd 64 is released before considering an upgrade?
In my opinion, I wouldn't bother getting the initial Athlon 64s. It is supposed to debut at 3400+ (and slower) performance ratings. This will very likely be measured on the same benchmarks that gave the 3200+ Barton its name. So on average a 3400+ Athlon 64 will be 6% faster than the 3200+ Barton for programs that are widely in use now. It may have a few percentage extra boost over the Barton in new programs that aren't reflected in the current line of tests that AMD uses. So for the sake of arguments lets say it is a full 10% faster. Yes I know this is a very rough generalization, but on average it will be pretty close.
Now look at
these benchmarks and add 10% to the 3200+ speed. The 3400+ would be roughly tied with the 3.0 GHz P4 (leading in a few, and trailing in a few). So performance wise it isn't going to be stunning. Especially since we may see a 3.4 GHz Prescott not much after the Athlon 64 release (even a 3.4 GHz Northwood would win in the vast majority of tests if my rough assumptions above are correct).
So if performance isn't the main reason, what about price? Since I haven't seen any real numbers, I'll make two estimates (based on current pricewatch.com prices).
1) Lets look at the Opteron. The 240 model costs $299, the 242 model costs $708, and the 244 model (which still isn't in stock in any reliable stores - will the top 3400+ Athlon 64 also be paper launched?) is $849. Now comparing the Athlon MP to the Athlon XP, on average the MP costs 90% more than the equivalent XP. Lets apply the same rule to the Opteron. Thus the top Athlon 64 at 3400+ speed would be roughly $447 street price (447*1.9 = 849).
2) AMD said the Athlon 64 will carry a "significant" price premium over the equivalent Barton. The 3200+ Barton sells for $450. Thus to me a significant price premium may be $100. That puts the 3400+ Athlon 64 at ~$550.
So there we have two estimates, between $450 and $550 for the top Athlon 64 3400+ chip. The 3.0 GHz P4 right now costs $415. So by the time the 3400+ Athlon 64 is available it should be down in the $280 price range. So for roughly the same performance, the Intel route would be much cheaper. Heck even if you don't want to go Intel, the 3200+ Barton should be in the $260 range by then.
Yes these are rough estimates, but I just cannot justify getting the 3400+ Athlon 64 when it comes out. What about slower Athlon 64s? I suppose you could buy a 3000+ Athlon 64. But the question comes to mind: why wait since you can get a 3000+ Barton now?