I remember hearing somewhere that if you change the fluid after it has gone a really long time without being changed, the transmission could fall apart. Is this true? Or should I go ahead and change it?
It is absolutely true. I just had a conversation about this when I picked up my Bonneville after having a complete transmission overhaul (to the tune of $1400) last week. The mechanic/shop owner has worked on transmissions for 20 years and holds virtually every factory (GM, Ford, Chrysler, and heavy truck) certification.
When you get a transmission (more so for automatic than manual) with 150,000 miles put on the SAME fluid, you are virtually assured to have excessive wear, build-up and deposits in your transmission, which the detergent additives blended with new transmission fluid will loosen and break down, substantially increasing the risk of transmission failure (usually seal failure).
Its not a "sure thing". In your case, it may result in nothing adverse, and you might drive another 50,000 miles before something goes wrong. You cannot say "at xx miles, this will occur, so your transmission WILL fail if you change the fluid and filter". But, the principle is sound, and the risk of failure is definitely increased.
The mechanic's rule for high mile cars of unknown service history is, if the trasmission fluid is brown and dirty, leave it alone. If the transmission fluid is still reasonably clean and pink, then its ok to change the fluid and filter.
The transmission is the most overlooked aspect of vehicle maintenance. Many people think that transmissions are supposed to last the life of the vehicle, which is true. Its the transmission FLUID and FILTER that need to be periodically changed, else you run the risk of having a transmission failure long before its time. For some odd reason, nobody would think about putting 50,000 miles on an engine before changing the oil, but people will put 100,000 miles on a transmission without servicing it.