-
We’re currently investigating an issue related to the forum theme and styling that is impacting page layout and visual formatting. The problem has been identified, and we are actively working on a resolution. There is no impact to user data or functionality, this is strictly a front-end display issue. We’ll post an update once the fix has been deployed. Thanks for your patience while we get this sorted.
Should faster download speed kill Hi-Def optical media?
- Thread starter petez
- Start date
Wuzup101
Platinum Member
It won't kill BR or HD-DVD; however, it may greatly limit their growth. Remember, HD media is a small part of total physical media sales and has a relatively small installed base when compared to DVD. If downloaded media was out of the picture, it would still take BR/HD-DVD years to get to where DVD currently is (especially with current player prices). The fact is, if current internet connections make a nice jump in speed in the next few years, we may see a shift towards downloaded media. In those cases, optical media will still survive, but it's growth will be slowed. Many people will likely only purchase their favorite movies or shows on BR... and rent/casually watch everything else on demand.
dandragonrage
Senior member
Nope. When I buy something, I want a physical product to show for it. The more I pay, the more this is true. (meaning if I wanted a single song for $1, it wouldn't matter as much as a movie). There are far too many people that agree with me for physical media to go away anything in the next decade. It also raises issues of being able to resell stuff - which is a right given to us by the doctrine of first sale.
Until mass storage is cheap and readily available it won't totally take off. Also there's the issue of reliablity of these storage devices. Hard drives of today have increased in reliability but they still can go out at any time. Just image your 500gb hard drive filled with movies and zap 100 of your movies on the drive gone cause the drive crapped out.
It wont kill it, but if done properly could change the dynamics of the market in a big way. It doesnt even have to be downloadable. I would think a netflix service which allows you to pick from thousands of movies and have it sent to your cable box for a monthly fee would be popular. Would you rather have the ability to view thousands of movies for 15 a month or buy those movies and own them? I honestly wouldnt mind just paying a fee and being able to view them. Most of my DVDs were purchased, viewed 1-3 times, and now sit on a shelf collecting dust. 99% of the DVDs I watch come from netflix. If we feel like watching the same movie again, queue it up.
Fingolfin269
Lifer
I haven't bought a CD in ages thanks to iTunes and similar services so why would this be any different?
I don't think so. Consumers still want to have something for their money, something to have and pop into a player whenever they want.
I just don't see media going anywhere for a very long time.
Absolutely HD on demand is already in some markets and will continue to grow, but I see it as complimentary rather than replacing.
I just don't see media going anywhere for a very long time.
Absolutely HD on demand is already in some markets and will continue to grow, but I see it as complimentary rather than replacing.
Bad comparison.
Most people listen to their music in one of two places, on the go(including the car) or on their computer.
This is much different than where most people watch movies...in the living room on a large television.
In order for downloads to take over you would have to make it easier on the consumer to play files from his computer to their TV/TVs than it is to buy/rent the movie and play it on a DVD player. This has yet to happen and I would venture to say that most people don't even consider connecting their TV to their computer. Until that happens, downloadable movies will be a niche market for those who solely watch on a computer or those who enjoy watching movies on the go on their iPod(for example).
Fingolfin269
Lifer
Who said I was referring to this happening within the next year? Or even 5 years?
I guarantee you when people were toting around vinyl or 8-tracks as the only medium available for audio that it never occurred to them that 20-30 years down the road they would tote around thousands of albums in their hand.
Schadenfroh
Elite Member
Not this decade, they have been trying to do this for years with games and (minus subscription costs of MMOs) what percentage of game revenue comes from games bought via download versus bought on disc?
Even if you could get it within minutes or view while streaming in the background?
I think many people believe the internet we have today is the internet we will have tomorrow. A decade ago 640kbps DSL was a luxury item. Now most cable companies have a base of 3Mbps with tiers running near 50Mbps. A decade from now have a large base of people on a 100Mbps line wont be surprising.
zinfamous
No Lifer
HD media will most likely be a niche format through the duration of its existence. If HD downloads follow the standard of other format-killing downloaded media, then it will be over-compressed poop, and never rival the quality that can be found IN Blu Ray or HD DVD. The type of people who are willing to fork over the cash for a system that takes advantage of HD wouldn't tolerate the likely lower quality downloaded stuff.
baronzemo78
Member
Someday maybe, but with the current infrastructure and the horrible DRM that I'm sure will accompany digital downloads I wouldn't hold my breath for it. I give Blu Ray at least a 10 yr life cycle.
ChAoTiCpInOy
Diamond Member
There are rumors that the only reason Microsoft is supporting the HD-DVD camp is that they want to keep it at a stalemate so that they can profit from the Xbox Live Marketplace sales. The only problem with that is while FiOS is coming out with 15Mbps up/down it is still not pervasive enough in the United States to really allow for digital downloads of movies.
There is a WSJ interview with Bill Gates and he alludes to believing downloading is the way of the future. Personally I think it will be VOD or a netflix service where you pick the movie you want and it is sent to your cable box. If you have TiVo or a DVR which allows you to store the video's you already kind of have what Bill wants to sell this with HD VOD or the HD Movie channels. You simply save the movie and store it yourself.
Wuzup101
Platinum Member
Yes, but downloading/streaming is a hell of a lot more convenient for the vast majority of the market (assuming we get internet speeds that support it). You don't think that everything in our society is based on efficiency do you? I agree that optical media isn't going to simply disappear (even CDs are still very popular despite the success of mp3 downloads and such). However, a box that sat under your home theater TV and allowed you to "rent" movies by streaming them would likely be adopted by a large part of the market. I'm not talking about an iTunes like service that allows you to "buy" a movie. I'm talking a "rental" service like Netflix or Blockbuster that allows the user to view content on demand.
I'm a fan of HD media, and like I said in my original post, I will own it for years to come. However, if a "rental" service that offers streaming content for a reasonable price comes along, I will be all over it. That is a HUGE convenience boost over the current services. Just imagine... being able to simply click on the movie you want to watch and have it sent right to your TV... no waiting for mailings... no having to drive to the store... and no having to deal with the wait times associated with "out of stock" titles. In such a case, the only BR/HD-DVD discs that I would be willing to purchase would be the ones that I wanted to watch in the absolute highest quality (assuming the downloads would be subject to more compression and thus they would be of lesser quality). How much would you pay for a service that allowed you unlimited movie watching? A BR new release is already going to cost you $25+... I would be willing to pay more for the convenience (and added amount of viewing) over a mail order system like Netflix (where I am likely to get only 12 rentals per month due to throttling even if I send them in the next day). Could they do this for $30-40 a month... perhaps... at $30 I would be hard pressed to turn it down. For people that don't watch that many movies... all they would need to do is come up with a price per movie that was competitive with normal rentals.
In any case, the advantage of this type of system isn't to download and keep the movies (the way you would download and keep mp3s from iTunes or whatnot). The point would be to offer on-demand rentals... With a large catalogue, this service could be HUGE if done right.
For the record, public transportation is MUCH more efficient (in many respects) than owning a car. Apparently some people still own cars... I don't know why...
Not anytime this decade. Even next decade would surprise me. I think many people are jaded by the AT community/their friends in terms of technological affinity. There are millions (ok, might be a stretch and most will probably be dead soon) that STILL can't program a VCR and VHS has been on the way out for some time. I just don't see the majority of consumers having the proper technology (TVs/net connection/etc.) to support this medium to the degree that would be necessary to kill a physical media.
TRENDING THREADS
-
Discussion Zen 5 Speculation (EPYC Turin and Strix Point/Granite Ridge - Ryzen 9000)- Started by DisEnchantment
- Replies: 25K
-
Discussion Intel Meteor, Arrow, Lunar & Panther Lakes + WCL Discussion Threads
- Started by Tigerick
- Replies: 25K
-
Discussion Intel current and future Lakes & Rapids thread- Started by TheF34RChannel
- Replies: 24K
-
-
