From a performance perspective, it is a Tick IMHO. The only possible rationale for a "Tock" would be the inclusion of a grahics core.
I see your point. But I have a feeling most people are expecting Pentium 4 to Core 2 Duo improvements every Tock. But then you could say Core 2 was a Tick based on laptop improvements:
http://www.anandtech.com/show/2056/9
The advancement was only 10-15% there too. But its a Tock based on mobile chip doesn't it? You could say it was because the previous chip was crippled not having 32nm, but so was the Pentium 4. On mobiles it achieves significantly better battery life and performance. Something of which only one happens with a mere shrink.
Penryn gains were also about half, or less:
http://www.anandtech.com/bench/Product/56?vs=59
Edrick said:
I agree about your statement on the multiple cores and programming. People usually tend to focus on one metric because marketing makes us that way(its easier for them). Beyond 4 cores on desktop, I don't know.
I do not think each process is dependent of the previous.
That I have to disagree strongly. You can't skip to the next step in process technology when you are on the cutting edge already. For example, Itanium was able to "skip" 45nm because even with that skip, that would still be their last generation process. Intel has been increasing their lead by marching one step at a time, to reduce risk. You remember they can fail miserably too, like with Prescott when they couldn't match process tech well with design.
There was a PC Watch article where the Nehalem architect said they could have eeked out 5-10% additional performance, but didn't because of causing too much risk. This is one case where theories do not match with reality at all.
Going to 22nm also requires the companies supplying the tools be able to do it in volume and with reliability. One of the problems the lithography people said was that as the light that prints the circuits are far larger than the ciruits themselves, and they need some complex steps to make it work. You go one step beyond that, you will be just multiplying the problems that needs to be solved.
The guys who make world records going up a 60-storey or more tall building by stairs say this: "You need to know your limits and do it at a certain pace, if you go too fast in the beginning, you'd needlessly waste your energy and never make it to the top".
Same thing. If the process guys don't know their limits they'll fail just like the amateurs doing the stair climbing. All the theories won't help as much as single real world application of the theory. Doing mass manufacturing is just that.