Sestak loses his primary bounce

[nick1985]

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...te_election/election_2010_pennsylvania_senate

Pat Toomey (R)
45%

Joe Sestak (D)
38%



"Congressman Joe Sestak’s post-primary bounce appears to over, and he now trails Republican rival Pat Toomey by seven points in the U.S. Senate contest in Pennsylvania."

"Two weeks ago, just after his widely covered primary victory over longtime Senator Arlen Specter, Sestak posted a modest four-point lead lead over Toomey."


"Nearly three-out-of-four voters in the state say they have been following news stories about the secret Obama White House job offer to Sestak in hopes that he would drop his primary challenge of Specter, and 52% say that offer is at least somewhat important in terms of how they will vote. Forty-one percent (41%) view the job offer as unimportant. This includes 29% for whom it is Very Important and 20% who say it’s Not At All Important.

Sixty-nine percent (69%) of those who say the offer is Very Important to their vote prefer Toomey. Sixty-one percent (61%) of voters who regard it as Not At All Important favor Sestak."




Looks like the scandal is not helping him at all.

 

[PokerGuy]

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...te_election/election_2010_pennsylvania_senate

Sixty-nine percent (69%) of those who say the offer is Very Important to their vote prefer Toomey. Sixty-one percent (61%) of voters who regard it as Not At All Important favor Sestak."

Translation: those who don't mind government corruption are voting for Sestak, those who don't want back room dealings and corruption are not.

 

[Narmer]

How can the secret job offer hurt him when he refused it and ran on his own anyway?

 

[Genx87]

How can the secret job offer hurt him when he refused it and ran on his own anyway?

He is being punished for Obamas wrongdoings. Much like many republicans were punished in 2006 for Bush's wrongdoings.

 

[classy]

This is no surprise. Spector had a better chance against Toomey. While Sestak enjoyed better democrat support, he doesn't get anything from the republican side. Spector still would have gotten better support from some of the republican side. Sestak probably has ruined his politcal career. Dems won't back him and the republicans won't accept him. There is still plenty of time though for him to turn it around, but I don't think he can win.

 

[nick1985]

How can the secret job offer hurt him when he refused it and ran on his own anyway?

I think his unwillingness to say who offered him the job, and what job was offered turned off some people. He made an accusation of a crime, and then didnt release any details.

 

[Vette73]

Sestak edges ahead of Toomey in early polling

http://www.delcotimes.com/articles/2010/06/02/news/doc4c05cb6bbb4a5974312046.txt

"Sestak holding a 43-40 lead."

 

[nick1985]

Sestak edges ahead of Toomey in early polling

http://www.delcotimes.com/articles/2010/06/02/news/doc4c05cb6bbb4a5974312046.txt

"Sestak holding a 43-40 lead."

1. Your poll is 2 days older.

2. "U.S. Rep. Joseph Sestak, D-7, of Edgmont, has taken the lead over his Republican opponent, former U.S. Rep. Pat Toomey, in early polling for political website Daily Kos."

 

[waggy]

How can the secret job offer hurt him when he refused it and ran on his own anyway?

i don't get it either. If people are vetoing for toomey over this they are fucking retarded.

hell i gained more respect for sisteck for turning it down. though not happy how he kissed out ass with obama to come up witha story

 

[nick1985]

i don't get it either. If people are vetoing for toomey over this they are fucking retarded.

hell i gained more respect for sisteck for turning it down. though not happy how he kissed out ass with obama to come up witha story

Its a crime in itself to allege a crime and then not tell your side of the story. I think many see Sestak as a weakling for not coming forth 100%. He cried foul and then clammed up.

 

[Vette73]

1. Your poll is 2 days older.

2. "U.S. Rep. Joseph Sestak, D-7, of Edgmont, has taken the lead over his Republican opponent, former U.S. Rep. Pat Toomey, in early polling for political website Daily Kos."

And your poll is run by a right wing group that slants its questions.

Your point?

 

[waggy]

Its a crime in itself to allege a crime and then not tell your side of the story. I think many see Sestak as a weakling for not coming forth 100%. He cried foul and then clammed up.

its only a crime to refuse to talk to police not blab it on TV. He does not have to go tell the cops or such that it happened (very few crimes do you have to.)

he has not been under oath yet. if he refuses to talk then sure i can see that hurting him.

 

[nick1985]

And your poll is run by a right wing group that slants its questions.

Your point?

So you allege. Their history of accuracy is pretty darn good, but I'm sure you wont bother to look at their accuracy in recent elections.

I'm sure your dailykos poll is more accurate.

 

[Vette73]

So you allege. Their history of accuracy is pretty darn good, but I'm sure you wont bother to look at their accuracy in recent elections.

I'm sure your dailykos poll is more accurate.

No I don't allege, its facts like Scott Rasmussen was a paid consultant for the 2004 George W. Bush campaign, ask different questions in terms of DemvsRep, etc... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rasmussen_Reports#Reputation

So how is the poll I linked to not correct? Oh I get it, it does not say what you want to hear. :awe:

 

[ayabe]

Only no crime was committed, no rule violated and this has been done by every modern president. One of W's ethics lawyers was on NPR yesterday afternoon and stated this very clearly.

Aside from that, yeah your outrage is justified.

 

[nick1985]

So how is the poll I linked to not correct? Oh I get it, it does not say what you want to hear. :awe:

Its older, for starters

 

[Vette73]

Its older, for starters

Yea 2 days, and it used less people. Yea thats much better. :awe:


But heres some more...

DSCC Poll Shows Sestak Up Seven In PA-SEN
http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2010/06/dscc-poll-shows-sestak-up-seven-in-pa-sen.php
Sestak leading Toomey by a margin of 47-40


So 2 polls out of three in the same week have Sestak up. :hmm:

 

[nick1985]

Yea 2 days, and it used less people. Yea thats much better. :awe:


But heres some more...

DSCC Poll Shows Sestak Up Seven In PA-SEN
http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2010/06/dscc-poll-shows-sestak-up-seven-in-pa-sen.php
Sestak leading Toomey by a margin of 47-40


So 2 polls out of three in the same week have Sestak up. :hmm:

Another older poll. Another poll conducted by a Democrat polling firm. Show me one from today from an unbiased firm. Obviously the Sestak scandal is hurting Sestak, so more recent polls are more accurate of his losing support over it.

 

[Vette73]

Another older poll. Another poll conducted by a Democrat polling firm. Show me one from today from an unbiased firm. Obviously the Sestak scandal is hurting Sestak, so more recent polls are more accurate of his losing support over it.

HaHa... thats the best you got is its 2 days later in reporting?

Yet another troll thread from nick who can't handle that 2 out of 3 polls in one week have a Dem on top. :awe:

 

[nick1985]

HaHa... thats the best you got is its 2 days later in reporting?

Yet another troll thread from nick who can't handle that 2 out of 3 polls in one week have a Dem on top. :awe:

No, its not the best I got. read the rest of my post.

Both of you polls are from admitted Democratic polling. One from the fucking Dailykos (lol?) and the other from another Democrat firm. They poll less people, and they are older.

Yeah you got me. If two liberal polling results put sestak ahead, he must be

I'll put $50 on toomey if you want. I already got $50 coming to me from the Kentucky election.

 

[Perknose]

All three polls come from somewhat suspect sources, and it's far too early for any of them to be definitive, but this race could shape up into a real down to the wire barn burner.

Pa. is kind of a swing state which can and has gone either way. I predict both national committees will pour a lot of money, time and effort into this one.

 

[Jhhnn]

Repubs are attempting to exploit generalized discontent, invoke the herd instinct, bandwagon it into victory.

"We're the Majority! and we're taking back our country!" is kinda catchy, until you realize who's spouting it- the same folks who led us into the current morass...

Have they forgotten why they got hammered in 2006 and 2008? I doubt that the electorate has...

 

[werepossum]

i don't get it either. If people are vetoing for toomey over this they are fucking retarded.

hell i gained more respect for sisteck for turning it down. though not happy how he kissed out ass with obama to come up witha story

Sestak got a big bump for disclosing the job offer and turning it down, but continuing to obfuscate is increasingly seen as covering for Obama. Thus the man who supposedly bravely stood up to business as usual is seen to be part of business as usual. Which is not surprising - he refused Obama when it was in his own best interest and supports Obama when that's in his own best interest.

 

[lothar]

Sestak edges ahead of Toomey in early polling

http://www.delcotimes.com/articles/2010/06/02/news/doc4c05cb6bbb4a5974312046.txt

"Sestak holding a 43-40 lead."

...
"The poll was skewed toward Sestak in terms of respondent makeup, however, with 47 percent identifying themselves as Democrats and only 39 percent identifying themselves as Republicans."
...

 

[lothar]

No I don't allege, its facts like Scott Rasmussen was a paid consultant for the 2004 George W. Bush campaign, ask different questions in terms of DemvsRep, etc... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rasmussen_Reports#Reputation

So how is the poll I linked to not correct? Oh I get it, it does not say what you want to hear. :awe:

Why would that matter if he was or not?
The fact that he may have been a paid consultant is irrelevant.
At the end of the day, only results matter.

How accurate was Rasmussen's final polling result compared to the actual general election results both on a state by state basis and on a national basis? Compared to other polling sources?

Obama won 53% to 47%...
What did Rasmussen predict? How accurate was Rasmussen's prediction compared to Zogby, SurveyUSA, Gallup, Mason Dixon, Quinnipiac, PPP, Daily Kos, MSNBC, ABC, CNN, FOX, and all the others? Both on a state by state and a national basis?

Those are the questions to answer every election.
I'm not sure what their record actually is, so hopefully someone here can dig up the final 2008/2004 predictions and answer the important questions.