Senate races 2016

[dullard]

I agree with you for the Senate part, but for the House two things:

1. At the start of Obama's first term Democrats controlled the House by a substantial margin.

Good catch, my fingers didn't type what I was thinking. I meant to type the end of the first term (not start). What I typed was factually and logically incorrect. It is edited.

2. I think it will be nearly impossible for the Democrats to take the House in this election barring a total landslide. From what I've read they would need to win the popular House vote by about 7 points just to draw even. That's how much the district map has been distorted.

Fixing the House map should be a top priority for Democrats going into 2020, not just for their own advantage but for simple good governance of the country. There is no logical reason why one party should need a 7 point win to get a majority while the other party just needs to lose by less than 7 points to keep theirs.

Yes, it shouldn't be that way. Gerrymandering (on both sides) is an evil thing. Representatives should be vote-based, not arbitrary and politically influenced map-based. But that is a topic for another thread.

The house currently looks like the democrats will pick up 18 GOP seats plus 2 vacant seats. That would leave the house at 229 GOP and 206 democrat. Many predictions are along those lines (example: http://www.electionprojection.com/house-elections.php ).

But, there are an additional 19 seats that aren't strongly in the GOP's bag. Yes, the GOP should win all 19, but if the Democrats have a strong turnout then they are up for play. Democrats would need to win 12 of those 19 seats to gain control. Likely? No, because these should all be fairly easy GOP wins. But possible with a strong turnout.

 

[thraashman]

1. At the start of Obama's first term Democrats controlled the House by a substantial margin.

And if you remember, when Kennedy fell ill in I think May of 2009 and democrats lost their filibuster proof majority, the republicans proceeded to filibuster more than every minority party in history combined. Dems don't just need a majority, they need a super majority. I'd say they need republicans to act reasonably, responsibly, and for the good of the nation instead of themselves and the party, but honesty I think there's a higher chance that I'll throw my name into the hat for President and be sworn in next year.